Tag: Brent Crude May’26 Futures

Key Points

• Brent crude futures (May’26) rose to $112 per barrel.
• 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.39%.
• The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550.

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The war in Iran is in danger of escalating, sending the global economy into recession.

WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against ​Iran, said a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter.

The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations, with the Iran war well into ‌its third week.

Those options include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran’s shoreline, said four sources, including two U.S. officials.

Reuters granted the sources anonymity to speak about military planning.

The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. ​officials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.

News of preparations for a ground war spooked financial markets.

CBS News said “heavy preparations” were being made for sending ground troops to Iran, citing multiple sources….

“If this is an escalation involving troops on the ground, then we’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this sort of market of higher oil prices, high gas prices; you’re hanging on every headline about energy infrastructure in the region,” Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said to CNBC. “Quite frankly, equity markets haven’t sold off in a way that would reflect this sort of event yet, so there could still be some some downside ahead.” (CNBC)

Brent crude futures (ICE May’26) climbed above $112 per barrel by the close of the week.

Ten-year Treasury yields spiked up 4.39%. The breakout above the 4.3% resistance level indicates another test of the 2023 high at 5.0%.

The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550, warning of a bear market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing primary support at 45,500. A breach of the support level would confirm the S&P 500 bear market signal.

The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) has already broken support at 60, confirming a primary downtrend in the seven mega-cap technology stocks that led the bull market advance.

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index jumped to -0.486, the uptick above its preceding peak warning of a contraction in financial market liquidity.

The downtrend in Bitcoin¹ has warned of a financial market contraction since late last year.

Conclusion

Prepare for a bear market. The Dow will likely break support at 45,500 next week, confirming the S&P 500 bear signal.

Acknowledgments

• CoinDesk: Bitcoin
• Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
• CNBC: Stocks tumble Friday as losses mount from Iran war impact, Dow and Nasdaq near correction
• Reuters: US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase
• Reuters: Trump struggles to shape the narrative on the Iran war

Notes

1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.