

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.
Bull/Bear Market
The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 54%, signaling a mild bear market.
Indicators from Australia and China (our largest trading partner) were unchanged, with three of the six signaling risk-off. These have a 60% weighting with the US bull-bear indicator making up the other 40%.
Private dwelling approvals declined to a seasonally adjusted 14.9 thousand in March. However, the 3-month moving average above the 20-year moving average continues to signal risk-on.
Stock Pricing
ASX stock pricing increased to 78.41 percent, compared to 67.85 four weeks ago and a high of 85.83 in February.
Conclusion
The ASX bull-bear indicator signals a mild bear market, while the risk of a significant drawdown remains high.
Australian private dwelling approvals are weakening, and China’s NBS manufacturing PMI is a hair’s breadth away from a recession warning; so the bull-bear indicator is on negative watch1.
Acknowledgments
- NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2025
- ABS: Private Dwelling Approvals
- Trading Economics: China Business Indicators
- Morningstar: ASX All Ords & ASX 20 Statistics
- Market Index: ASX Statistics
- ABS: National Accounts
- ASX: Historical Market Statistics
Notes
- When a credit-rating agency places a company on negative watch, it indicates an increased likelihood of downgrading its credit rating in the near future.

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.