The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.
Bull/Bear Market
The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% eight weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.
Australian monthly building approvals continue their uptrend, with the 3-month moving average at 16.0, above the 20-year moving average, signaling risk-on.
The ASX 200 Financials Index weakened to 9440, but long tails on weekly candles indicate strong primary support at 9000, and the signal remains risk-on.
Stock Pricing
ASX stock pricing fell dramatically to 78.87 percent, from 84.47 percent last week, as the market retreated. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.
We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.
The All Ordinaries trailing dividend yield has increased to 3.41% as the market corrects, but is way below the 4.5% to 5.0% that would signal a buy opportunity.
Conclusion
The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing continues to warn of an elevated risk of a drawdown.
Acknowledgments
- NAB: Monthly Business Survey
- ABS: Private Dwelling Approvals
- Trading Economics: China Business Indicators
- OECD: Composite Leading Indicators
- Morningstar: ASX 20 Statistics
- S&P Global Indices: All Ordinaries Statistics
- Market Index: ASX Statistics
- ABS: National Accounts
- ASX: Historical Market Statistics
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
