ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index Archives

February 4, 2026February 4, 2026

RBA Admits Its Mistake

Key Points

The RBA raised its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%.
The consumer price index jumped to 3.8% for the 12 months to December 2025.
The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally-adjusted 4.1%.
The ASX 200 found support at 8800.

The RBA increased its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%, citing stubborn inflationary pressures and a labor market that is “a little tight.”

The trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, increased slightly to 3.3% for the 12 months to December 2025, up from 3.2% in November. However, a jump in the consumer price index to 3.8% from 3.4% in November spooked the central bank into a speedy reversal of its recent accommodative monetary policy.

Australian CPI & Trimmed Mean CPI

The 0.25% rate increase comes less than 12 months after the RBA commenced rate cuts on 19 February last year. The cumulative 75-basis-point rate-cut cycle is the shallowest in the past 35 years, an acknowledgment that it cut too soon.

RBA Cash Rate Target

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in December from 4.3% in November, indicating a tighter labor market.

Australia: Unemployment

The S&P Global Composite PMI for Australia jumped to 55.7 in January 2025, the highest level in more than 3 years.

S&P Global Composite PMI

Also, the ANZ-Indeed job ads average increased to 4.4% in January 2026, but remains in a long-term downtrend.

Australia: Job Ads

However, aggregate monthly hours worked grew by 1% over the 12 months to December 2025, suggesting low real GDP growth in the year ahead.

Australia: Aggregate Hours Worked

Over the same 12 months, credit and broad money grew at rates of 7.6% and 7.2%, respectively. The wide margin of more than 6.0% between credit/money growth and actual hours worked suggests strong underlying inflationary pressures.

Australia: Credit and Broad Money Growth

The ASX 200 shrugged off the rate increase, respect of support at 8800 signaling another test of 9000.

ASX 200 Index

The large ASX 200 Financials index indicates increased buyer interest, with a higher Trend Index trough.

ASX 200 Financials Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index continues in a strong uptrend, and recovery above 8000 would indicate a fresh advance, with a short-term target of 8750.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index

Conclusion

The RBA faces a dilemma.

On the one hand, economic growth is slowing. Aggregate monthly hours worked grew just 1.0% in 2025, while real GDP growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter.

Australian Real GDP Growth

On the other hand, inflation is rising due to high government spending, loose monetary policy, and high immigration, crush-loading the housing rental market.

Hiking rates will further slow the economy, but the central bank is already late in tightening monetary policy and will need to hike aggressively to bring inflation back under control.

For now, the stock market shrugged off the rate increase. However, the RBA will need to inflict some pain to achieve its goal.

Acknowledgments

ABS: Monthly CPI
ABS: Labor Report
Trading Economics: Australian GDP Annual Growth Rate
Trading Economics: S&P Global Australian Composite PMI

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

September 21, 2024

ASX retraces

A tall shadow on the ASX 200 indicates short-term selling pressure and a likely retracement to test its new support level at 8100.

ASX 200 Index

Financials continue their advance, but gradually, with lower Trend Index peaks warning that buying pressure is fading.

ASX 200 Financials Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index hesitated after its recent rally and will likely re-test short-term support at 5200. Penetration of the descending trendline indicates that the downtrend has weakened, and a correction that respects support at 5000 would confirm that a bottom has formed.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index

Iron ore continues its downtrend as Chinese industrial demand weakens. A breach of support at $90 per tonne would confirm our target of $80.

Iron Ore

However, the All Ordinaries Gold Index broke resistance at 8500, signaling another advance with an expected target of 9000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Conclusion

The ASX 200 is retracing to test support at 8100. Respect will likely confirm another advance with a target of 8500. Financials and gold miners are strong, but iron ore remains in a downtrend with a long-term target of $80 per tonne.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 5, 2018

ASX 200 heads for a bear market

The ASX 200 dipped below primary support at 5650, signaling a primary down-trend. A Trend Index peak at the zero line warns of strong selling pressure. The market is still open, and a lot can happen by the close, but the prospect of a bear market is now close at hand. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level but respect would confirm a bear market, offering a target of 5000.

ASX 200

The two largest sectors are already in a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index broke support at 3500, signaling a decline with a target of 3100.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks Index, in a down-trend since 2015, is currently testing long-term support at 7000. Breach would offer a target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

September 7, 2018

ASX 200: Banks & miners lead correction

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700 after respecting its new resistance level at 8000. Breach of support is likely and would signal another test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke short-term support at 3600 and is headed for a test of primary support at 3400. A sharp fall on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 6150. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of (secondary) selling pressure and breach of 6150 is likely. Expect a correction to test the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

I avoid commercial banks because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk. Also hold few mining stocks because of exposure to volatile commodity markets. I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 17, 2018

ASX 200 breakout

Strong earnings reports and continued interest in major banks lifted the ASX 200. Rising Trend Index troughs signal buying pressure. Breakout above 6300 offers a short-term target of 6500.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks index followed through above 8100, indicating another rally with a medium-term target of 8500 (long-term 8750).

ASX 300 Banks Index

But the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke support at 3750, warning of a test of primary support at 3400. Fears of a US-China trade war are likely to undermine commodity prices.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

I am also wary of banks because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk .

So the primary trend on the ASX 200 is up but I remain cautious, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 11, 2018

ASX 200 buying pressure

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index continues to test support at 3750. Breach of support and the rising trendline would warn of a correction to 3400.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks index recovered above 8000, the false break suggesting another rally, targeting 8500.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I remain wary of banks, however, because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk .

The ASX 200 continues to test resistance at 6300. Rising Twiggs Money Flow troughs signal buying pressure. Breakout above 6300 would present a short-term target of 6500.

ASX 200

The primary trend is upward but economic indicators and the potential impact of a US-China trade war make me cautious. I hold more than 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 28, 2018

Iron ore bounce lifts the ASX

Iron ore spot prices bounced off support at $63/tonne. Follow-through above $68 would suggest another rally to test resistance at $80 but that seems unlikely given the current threat of a trade war.

Iron Ore Spot Price

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index found support at 3750. Breakout above 4000 would signal another advance but reversal below 3750 and a correction to test primary support at 3400 are more likely if iron ore retreats.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to consolidate in a bullish narrow band above its new support level at 8000. Follow-through above 8100 would suggest another advance, with a target of 8700. The index is still in a primary down-trend but it is evident that a bottom is forming. A higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would signal the start of a primary up-trend.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The banking sector faces the prospect of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and I remain wary.

The ASX 200 is again testing resistance at 6300. Breakout would signal a primary advance with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750.

ASX 200

Technical signals suggest a primary advance while economic indicators warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market. I remain cautious, with more than 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 20, 2018

Banks buoy the ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks index overcame resistance at 8000 after retracement successfully respected the new support level. Breach of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. A higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would signal the start of a primary up-trend.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The banking sector remains squeezed by higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and I remain cautious.

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke support at 3800, warning of a correction.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 200 is consolidating below resistance at 6300. Long tails for the last two weeks indicate buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would confirm the primary advance. Target is the October 2007 high at 6750.

ASX 200

Technical signals suggest a primary advance while economic indicators warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market. So I remain cautious, with more than 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 9, 2018June 9, 2018

Is ASX 200 resurgence sustainable?

The ASX 200 found support at 5950/6000, a bullish sign. Large bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) continues to warn of selling pressure but breakout above 6150 would signal a fresh primary advance. Breach of 5950 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 5650/5750.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks decline continues, heading for a test of its 2016 low at 7200.

ASX 300 Banks

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index breakout above 4000 is likely, offering a target of 4200.

ASX 300 Banks

The broad index looks bullish but I have two concerns. First is the weak banking index, representing the largest sector in the ASX 200. Second, iron ore prices are weakening. Spot prices are testing support at $62/tonne. A Trend Index peak below zero looks likely, and would warn of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at $58 would signal a primary down-trend.

Iron Ore

GDP growth recovered to 3.1% for the year ending 31 March 2018, on the back of strong exports, but the overall report card for the economy remains weak.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 18, 2018

ASX 200 tug-of-war

At times it pays to look at the big picture. A monthly chart shows the ASX 200 recovering from 2 months of uncertainty (February – March), when the index broke its new support level at 6000. Recovery is almost complete, with the index testing the last level of resistance at 6150. Breakout would signal a primary advance but bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) warns of selling pressure. Another test of support at 6000 is likely.

ASX 200

The ASX faces a bi-polar medium-term outlook with its two largest sectors headed in opposite directions.

ASX 200
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

Mining is going gang-busters with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index offering a medium-term target of 4200 after breaking through 3800.

ASX 300 Banks

But the largest sector, Finance, is in trouble. The impact of the Royal Commission is likely to slow bank lending growth and APRA’s efforts to raise bank lending standards will also adversely affect declining housing growth. The ASX 300 Banks Index remains in a primary down-trend, having broken support at 8000. Retracement respected the new resistance level at 8000 and breach of support at 7700 would signal a test of the 2016 low at 7200.

ASX 300 Banks

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.