Tag: ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index

The ASX 200 dipped below primary support at 5650, signaling a primary down-trend. A Trend Index peak at the zero line warns of strong selling pressure. The market is still open, and a lot can happen by the close, but the prospect of a bear market is now close at hand. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level but respect would confirm a bear market, offering a target of 5000.

The two largest sectors are already in a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index broke support at 3500, signaling a decline with a target of 3100.

The ASX 300 Banks Index, in a down-trend since 2015, is currently testing long-term support at 7000. Breach would offer a target of 5000.

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700 after respecting its new resistance level at 8000. Breach of support is likely and would signal another test of primary support at 7300.

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke short-term support at 3600 and is headed for a test of primary support at 3400. A sharp fall on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure.

The ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 6150. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of (secondary) selling pressure and breach of 6150 is likely. Expect a correction to test the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

I avoid commercial banks because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk. Also hold few mining stocks because of exposure to volatile commodity markets. I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index continues to test support at 3750. Breach of support and the rising trendline would warn of a correction to 3400.

The ASX 300 Banks index recovered above 8000, the false break suggesting another rally, targeting 8500.

I remain wary of banks, however, because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk .

The ASX 200 continues to test resistance at 6300. Rising Twiggs Money Flow troughs signal buying pressure. Breakout above 6300 would present a short-term target of 6500.

The primary trend is upward but economic indicators and the potential impact of a US-China trade war make me cautious. I hold more than 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

The ASX 300 Banks index overcame resistance at 8000 after retracement successfully respected the new support level. Breach of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. A higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would signal the start of a primary up-trend.

The banking sector remains squeezed by higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and I remain cautious.

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index broke support at 3800, warning of a correction.

The ASX 200 is consolidating below resistance at 6300. Long tails for the last two weeks indicate buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would confirm the primary advance. Target is the October 2007 high at 6750.

Technical signals suggest a primary advance while economic indicators warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market. So I remain cautious, with more than 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

At times it pays to look at the big picture. A monthly chart shows the ASX 200 recovering from 2 months of uncertainty (February – March), when the index broke its new support level at 6000. Recovery is almost complete, with the index testing the last level of resistance at 6150. Breakout would signal a primary advance but bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) warns of selling pressure. Another test of support at 6000 is likely.

The ASX faces a bi-polar medium-term outlook with its two largest sectors headed in opposite directions.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

Mining is going gang-busters with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index offering a medium-term target of 4200 after breaking through 3800.

But the largest sector, Finance, is in trouble. The impact of the Royal Commission is likely to slow bank lending growth and APRA’s efforts to raise bank lending standards will also adversely affect declining housing growth. The ASX 300 Banks Index remains in a primary down-trend, having broken support at 8000. Retracement respected the new resistance level at 8000 and breach of support at 7700 would signal a test of the 2016 low at 7200.

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6100/6150 despite a weakening Australian Dollar and a troubled banking sector. Breakout above 6150 would signal a welcome fresh advance.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices

But I remain skeptical because the largest sector, Financials — whose market cap is a third of the entire index — is in trouble. The ASX 300 Banks Index is in a primary down-trend, having broken support at 8000. Retracement that respects the new resistance level at 8000/8100 would confirm a primary down-trend, with a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 7200.

Miners, on the other hand, have recovered. Breakout above 3800 would signal a fresh advance, with medium-term a target of 4200.