ASX 200 Archives - Page 35 of 36 - the patient investor %

March 26, 2012

ASX 200 response

Australia’s ASX 200 opened with a strong blue candle on the hourly chart but is now retracing to find support. Respect of short-term support at 4290 would suggest follow-through to 4320, while failure would test medium-term support at 4240/4250.

ASX 200 Index

Breakout above 4320 would indicate another test of 4400. Though we are unlikely to see a primary up-trend until China signals that it has formed a bottom.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

November 28, 2011

Australia rallies

The ASX 200 rallied off support at 4000, headed for a test of medium-term resistance at 4150 — and the descending trendline. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow remains below zero and respect of the zero line would warn of strong medium-term selling pressure. In the longer term, breach of primary support at 3850 would signal a primary decline to 3350*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3850 – ( 4350 – 3850 ) = 3350

November 7, 2011

ASX 200 hesitant

The ASX 200 index is testing its descending trendline. Recovery above 4350 would indicate a primary advance, while reversal below 4100 would test primary support at 3850. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure.

ASX 200 Index

The longer term chart displays a bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 4350 would offer a weak advance but a correction that respects primary support would strengthen the signal.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4400 – 3900 ) = 3400

October 26, 2011

ASX weekly chart

Just a reminder that the ASX is still in a bear market. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure on the All Ords and the index is testing the descending trendline. Breakout above 4400 would signal that a bottom has formed, while reversal below 4200 would warn of another test of primary support at 3900.

All Ordinaries Index

The ASX 200 weekly chart shows a similar picture, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero warns that it may be some time before this bear (market) goes back into hibernation.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5600 – ( 6600 – 5600 ) = 5100

October 18, 2011

ASX 200 hits ceiling

The ASX 200 index encountered both the declining trendline (from April 2011) and resistance at 4300. Low volume indicates a lack of enthusiasm from buyers. The strong red candle warns of another test of 3850; follow-through below Tuesday’s low would confirm.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

October 10, 2011

ASX 200 trend channel

The ASX 200 index is testing its upper trend channel. Low volume is typical for a Monday — before US and European markets open for the week — but the low range indicates caution on the part of buyers. Reversal below 4100 would indicate a down-swing to the lower trend channel, while follow-through above 4200 would suggest a bear market rally to 4500. The primary trend remains down, however, and reversal below 4000 would warn of a decline to 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

October 6, 2011

ASX 200 rally — but it’s still a bear market

Australia’s ASX 200 index rallied strongly Thursday and is headed for a test of the upper trend channel. 63-day Momentum declining below zero reminds that we are in a strong primary down-trend. Respect of the upper channel would warn of another decline — to test the lower channel border.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

We are experiencing exceptional volatility at present and risk of false signals is high. It is important in such situations to look for strong confirmation. One step is to wait for signals on the weekly chart to confirm those on the daily chart. As you can see, this bear market is a long way from over.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

October 4, 2011

ASX

The ASX 200 recovered slightly after a weak opening on Tuesday. Expect another test of 4000 but the index looks destined to continue in the lower half of its trend channel, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (holding below zero) warning of medium-term selling pressure. Target for the decline is 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

September 19, 2011

Selling pressure on ASX 200

The ASX 200 is headed for another test of 4000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow holding below zero warns of strong medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support is likely and would offer a target of 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500

September 12, 2011

ASX 200 tests key support level

The ASX 200 fell sharply, headed for a test of its key support level at 4000. Low volume indicates weak support and downward breakout would signal a primary down-swing to 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 – 4000 ) = 3500