ASX 200 Archives - Page 33 of 36 - the patient investor %

May 16, 2013

ASX 200 selling pressure builds as Aussie Dollar falls

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 5200, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

The daily chart also shows a bearish divergence, suggesting a test of support at 5100/5120. Failure would indicate a correction, while respect would confirm an advance to 5400*.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

Bipolar behavior of the market is highlighted by comparison of the ASX 50 Large Caps to the ASX Small Ords (ASX 300 – ASX 100). Small Caps tend to outperform Large Caps during a bull market, as can be seen from 2003 to 2007. But the current “bull market” gives out mixed signals, with Large Caps powering ahead while Small Caps remain in a down-trend. Demand for Large Caps seems to have been inflated by international capital flows.
ASX 50 Index
And the falling Aussie Dollar, with a target of $0.96* against the greenback, is likely to lead to retreat of the ASX 50 and ASX 200 indices.

* Target calculation: 1.01 – ( 1.06 – 1.01 ) = 0.96

May 9, 2013

ASX 200 meets resistance

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5200. Breakout would signal an advance to 5400*. Reversal below 5100 is unlikely but would warn of a bull trap. As would reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

The Energy Sector XEJ recently completed an inverted head and shoulders reversal over six weeks, signaling an advance to 137. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 137 would offer a long-term target around 150*.
ASX 50 Index

* Target calculation: 135 + ( 135 – 120 ) = 150

April 24, 2013

ASX 200 correction over

The ASX 200 rallied strongly after breaking resistance at 5020. Breach of the March high at 5150 is likely and would signal an advance to 5400*. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would warn of strong selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

The monthly chart offers a long-term target of 6000*.
ASX 50 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

April 15, 2013

ASX 200: Correction continues

The ASX 200 opened sharply lower following a steep fall on US markets overnight. Respect of resistance at the 5000 level confirms the correction signaled earlier. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would warn of strong selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

The ASX 50 monthly chart shows that even correction back to 4500 would not disrupt the primary up-trend and may present a buying opportunity for investors. Breach of support at 5000 would confirm the correction, but a trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money flow (and above 4500 on the index) would signal the primary trend is intact.
ASX 50 Index

April 4, 2013

ASX 200 warns of correction

The ASX 200 broke medium-term support at 4950, signaling the start of a correction for Australian stocks. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms medium-term selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index
Initial target for a correction is the rising trendline around 4700. Even correction back to 4500 does not disrupt the primary up-trend and would present buying opportunities for investors.

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 5500

March 25, 2013

ASX 200: Resistance at 5000

The ASX 200 rallied above 5000 at Monday’s opening but gradually retreated to close at 4990. While failure to hold above the short-term support level is disappointing, an early break above 5000 on Tuesday would suggest a rally to 5150.
ASX 200 Index
The weekly chart shows the importance of medium-term support at 4950. Failure would signal a correction to test the rising trendline around 4700. Slight bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of mild medium-term selling pressure. The index remains in a strong primary up-trend and only a breach of the rising trendline would threaten this.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 5500

March 19, 2013

ASX 200: Testing support at 5000

The ASX 200 weakened towards the close and is testing medium-term support at 5000. Breakout below 4980 would warn of a correction. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating medium-term selling pressure, makes this likely. The index is in a strong primary up-trend and a 5 or 10 percent correction would not alter this. It is merely a case of one step back then two steps forward.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 5500

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

March 18, 2013

ASX and Asia fall

The ASX 200 retreated more than 2.0% Monday after the Cyprus deposit grab unsettled financial markets. Expect another test of support at 4980. Breakout would warn of a correction, while recovery above 5150 would signal an advance to 5500*. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 5500

Dow Jones Japan Index dropped about 1.5%. Follow through below short-term support would indicate no more than retracement to the rising trendline.

Dow Jones Hong Kong Index has fallen about 2.0% so far. Breach of support at 472 signals a correction.

Dow Jones Singapore Index has fallen 1.0% in the morning and we can expect further weakness in the p.m.

European markets are likely to open lower. If the US follows and finishes the day with a weak close, negative sentiment could start to feed on itself, tipping global markets into a correction. Overall, the primary trend in the US and Australia remains positive.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 14, 2013

ASX 200: Retracing in a strong up-trend

The ASX 200 is retracing for another test of support at 4980/5000. Breakout would warn of a correction, while recovery above 5100 would signal an advance to 5500*. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 5500

A monthly chart of the ASX 50 [$XFL] puts the retracement into perspective. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Respect of support at 5000 is likely, but even a stronger correction would not disrupt the primary up-trend: respect of 4500 would present a buying opportunity.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 12, 2013

ASX 200 advancing

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 5000 on the strength of strong buying pressure, signaled by rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Retracement that respects the new support level would confirm an advance to 5500*.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 5500

On the daily chart, mild bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of retracement to test the new support level at 5000. Reversal below 4980 is unlikely but would warn of a correction.
ASX 200 Index

ASX small-caps ($XSO – ASX Small Ords) continue to under-perform the ASX 50 [$XFL]. The opposite of what one would expect in a bull market: treat it as a caution. The current $XSO down-swing should test the lower channel at 2300, presenting a buy opportunity for swing traders.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.