Tag: ASX 200

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Asian recovery bullish for ASX

India’s Sensex is testing long-term resistance at its all-time high of 21000. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 20500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure and breakout above 21000 would offer a long-term target of 24000*. Reversal below 20500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

Rising troughs on Japan’s Nikkei 225 weekly chart suggest buying pressure; 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above 30% would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 15000 would signal an advance to 17500*. Reversal below 14000 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is consolidating below resistance at 2250. Reversal below the lower channel border at 2180, however, would warn that the trend is slowing and breach of support at 2150 would signal another correction. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure, but oscillation above the zero line indicates buyers are dominant in the longer term.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing resistance at 23500 on the weekly chart. Breakout would be a strong bull signal, offering a target of 25500*. Follow-through above 24000 would confirm the advance. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 22750 is unlikely, but would indicate a correction to 21500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

Rising Asian markets are bullish for the ASX. The ASX 200 index followed through above 5300, confirming an advance to 5850*. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 5250/5300. Failure of support is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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India, ASX breakout

India’s Sensex is retracing to test its new support level after breaking resistance at 20500 Friday, signaling a primary advance to 22000*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 19500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing the rising trendline on its weekly chart. Penetration would warn that momentum is slowing, while breach of 13000 would signal a primary down-trend. Breakout above 15000 is as likely, despite the earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, and would signal an advance to 17500*.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is rallying to test resistance — and the upper trend channel — at 2330. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates growing buying pressure. Reversal below 2150 is unlikely, but would indicate another test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing resistance at 23500 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 25500*; follow-through above 24000 would confirm. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 23000 is unlikely, but would suggest another test of support at 21500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

Singapore’s Straits Times Index appears to be preparing for another test of long-term resistance at 3300. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 3600*. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend, but sentiment is bullish across a wide range of markets and upward breakout is as likely.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600

The ASX 200 recovered above resistance at the May high of 5250, the false break suggesting a bear trap. Follow-through above 5300 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Reversal below 5100 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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Japan & China steady, ASX threatens correction

Dow Jones Japan index chose to ignore the poker game on Capitol Hill in Washington today, following Friday’s sharp fall. Breach of the rising trendline, however, warns of a correction.

Dow Jones Japan index

A weekly chart of the Nikkei 225 shows short-term support at 14300, with resistance at 15000. Failure of support would test the primary level at 13200, while upward breakout remains as likely and would signal an advance to 17000*. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal; decline below 15% would strengthen the signal. Failure of support at 13200 would confirm.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 13000 ) = 17000

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing short-term support at 2150. Failure of support would penetrate the rising trendline, warning of another correction. A sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure. Respect of 2150, or even 2100, would signal another test of resistance at 2250. Follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest the primary down-trend is reversing. But breach of 2100 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex continues on a downward path toward primary support. Penetration of the former rising trendline would increase the likelihood of a test. Breakout below 18500 would signal a primary down-trend, while follow-through below 18000 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero is unlikely, but would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

The ASX 200 retreated below its May high of 5250 for a second time; a bearish sign. Penetration of the rising trendline also warns of a correction. Breach of short-term support at 5200 would confirm.

ASX 200

There appears little danger of a primary reversal at this stage, with primary support at 4650, but 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the warning. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) also displays a bearish divergence, indicating selling pressure. Long-term target for an advance would be 5850*, but we are likely to see a correction first.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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Asia recovery helps ASX 200

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ran into resistance at 2250 and is likely to retrace to support at 2100. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 2100 would be bullish, while recovery above 2250 would penetrate the descending trendline, suggesting that the primary down-trend is reversing. A primary up-trend would signal increased demand for resources and give a significant boost to the ASX. Failure of 2100 is unlikely, but would indicate a test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 15000. Breakout would signal an advance to 17500*. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of a reversal. Penetration of the rising trendline would also suggest the primary up-trend is losing momentum. Failure of support at 13200 remains unlikely, but would signal a reversal.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

India’s Sensex retreated below resistance at 20500. Tall shadows and long tails on the weekly chart indicate excessive volatility. Reversal below last week’s low at 19500 would warn of another down-swing. Breach of the rising trendline would strengthen the reversal warning. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

ASX 200 recovery above the May high of 5250 indicates a primary advance. Follow-through above 5300 would confirm. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Long-term target for an advance would be 5850*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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S&P 500 hesitates but ASX 200 follows through

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 1650. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line would signal a healthy primary up-trend. Target for the advance would be 1800*. Follow-through above 1660 would strengthen the bull signal, but reversal below 1640 would warn of another test of 1600 — and a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern (as shown by the arrows) if support at 1600 is respected.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The ASX 200 found resistance at 4900, with a tall shadow (or wick) on Wednesday’s candle. A healthy start this morning suggests a test of 5000. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 5850*. Reversal below 4860 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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ASX 200 & All Ords selling pressure

The ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 5150. Breakout would indicate a correction to 4900. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero — and the longer-term bearish divergence — warn of selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

The All Ordinaries weekly chart displays a longer-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Expect a test of the rising trendline at 4900.
ASX All Ordinaries Index
The Large Cap ASX 50 rising faster than the ASX Small Ords confirms this is not a typical bull market. There is a high degree of risk aversion and sentiment of retail (mom+pop) investors is more accurately captured by the Small Caps index which represents the ASX 300 excluding ASX 100 stocks.
ASX 50 Index

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ASX 200 selling pressure builds as Aussie Dollar falls

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 5200, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

The daily chart also shows a bearish divergence, suggesting a test of support at 5100/5120. Failure would indicate a correction, while respect would confirm an advance to 5400*.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

Bipolar behavior of the market is highlighted by comparison of the ASX 50 Large Caps to the ASX Small Ords (ASX 300 – ASX 100). Small Caps tend to outperform Large Caps during a bull market, as can be seen from 2003 to 2007. But the current “bull market” gives out mixed signals, with Large Caps powering ahead while Small Caps remain in a down-trend. Demand for Large Caps seems to have been inflated by international capital flows.
ASX 50 Index
And the falling Aussie Dollar, with a target of $0.96* against the greenback, is likely to lead to retreat of the ASX 50 and ASX 200 indices.
Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.01 – ( 1.06 – 1.01 ) = 0.96

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ASX 200 meets resistance

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5200. Breakout would signal an advance to 5400*. Reversal below 5100 is unlikely but would warn of a bull trap.  As would reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

The Energy Sector XEJ recently completed an inverted head and shoulders reversal over six weeks, signaling an advance to 137. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 137 would offer a long-term target around 150*.
ASX 50 Index

* Target calculation: 135 + ( 135 – 120 ) = 150

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ASX 200 correction over

The ASX 200 rallied strongly after breaking resistance at 5020. Breach of  the March high at 5150 is likely and would signal an advance to 5400*. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would warn of strong selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 4900 ) = 5400

The monthly chart offers a long-term target of 6000*.
ASX 50 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

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ASX 200: Correction continues

The ASX 200 opened sharply lower following a steep fall on US markets overnight. Respect of resistance at the 5000 level confirms the correction signaled earlier. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would warn of strong selling pressure.
ASX 200 Index

The ASX 50 monthly chart shows that even correction back to 4500 would not disrupt the primary up-trend and may present a buying opportunity for investors. Breach of support at 5000 would confirm the correction, but a trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money flow (and above 4500 on the index) would signal the primary trend is intact.
ASX 50 Index

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