The ASX 200 retreated from resistance at the high of 7600 and is now testing support at 7400. Breach would warn of a correction to test primary support at 6750.
The Financials Index has similarly retreated from resistance at 6800. Reversal below 6650 would warn of a correction.
The A-REIT Index would likewise warn of a correction to test 1200 if support at 1440 is breached. The recent rally was in response to falling long-term bond yields.
The correction in yields is secondary in nature and is unlikely to reverse the long-term up-trend. Further increases in long-term yields are expected to weaken A-REITs.
Healthcare also rallied strongly in the past two months but could reverse if long-term bond yields strengthen.
Consumer Staples are in a strong down-trend. Breach of support at 11500 would warn of another decline.
Discretionary has surprised to the upside, breaking resistance at 3200. A Trend Index trough at zero indicates buying pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level would signal a further advance.
Energy rallied to test resistance at 11000 but a Trend Index peak below zero warns of selling pressure. Another test of primary support at 10000 is likely.
The All Ordinaries Gold Index fell sharply as the US Dollar strengthened. Follow-through below 6500 would warn of another test of support at 6000.
The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is falling sharply as China’s recovery falters. Another test of primary support at 5600 is likely.
China
Rate cuts and measures to stimulate the Chinese economy have been modest as the PBOC is trying to protect the Yuan from further depreciation against the US Dollar.
The result is slowing growth and deflation as weak demand persists.
Conclusion
Falling long-term bond yields have boosted Financials, REITs, Health Care and Consumer Discretionary sectors but the correction in yields is secondary and we expect this to reverse in 2024.
The Metals & Mining sector is falling sharply as China struggles to overcome weak demand while at the same time protecting the Yuan from further depreciation against the Dollar.
Our overall outlook for the ASX 200 remains bearish. Breach of support at 7400 would warn of a correction to test primary support from the October 2022 low at 6750.
