The importance of regulation

Capitalism without regulation is prone to excesses, driven by individuals pursuing their own self-interest. Price-gouging and provision of inferior quality goods and services are held in check by competition, but there are other aberrations against public morals, or not in the public interest, that require regulation. Historical examples would be the use of slaves, the opium trade, usury, prostitution, child labor, conquest and exploitation of primitive cultures, and sale of weapons or related technology to a nation’s enemies.

Regulation is also required to curb monopolistic practices, where competition is ineffective. There is much talk of the importance of free markets, but unregulated markets are not free. They are prone to cheating, corruption and abuse of market power. What is needed are efficient markets, where there are:

  • low barriers to entry for new participants
  • low transaction costs
  • equal access to information, at the same time

Stock markets are often quoted as an example of an efficient market. Regulation has contributed to this over the years by policing illegal activities such as insider trading, front-running, wash sales, pump and dump, price manipulation, squeezes, and disseminating false or misleading information. But lately the prevalence of high-speed trading has eroded investor confidence, as most market participants no longer have access to price information at the same time. If this continues, the onus is on regulators to allow competitors to set up efficient markets for investors.

India decidedly bullish

India’s Sensex, on the other hand, is decidedly bullish. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero signals buying pressure. Breakout above 21500 would offer a target of 23000*. Respect of resistance is less likely, warning of further consolidation between 20000 and 21500. Failure of support is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

Shanghai remains bearish

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing short-term resistance at 2080. Breach would suggest another test of 2180. But the primary trend is downward and follow-through below 1990 would signal a decline to 1850*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

Nikkei finds Yen support

The US Dollar found solid support at ¥101 against the Yen. Recovery above ¥103 would suggest an advance to ¥111*. Breakout above ¥106 would confirm. Recovery above the December 2013 high on 13-week Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal. Breach of support at ¥101 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at ¥96.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 106 + ( 106 – 101 ) = 111

The Nikkei 225 found support at 14000. Recovery above 15000 would indicate another attempt at 16000. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

Never argue with the tape

I daily read predictions of the imminent collapse of stock prices. But ask yourself one question: Is this a bull market or a bear market?

S&P 500

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is below 15.

VIX Index

A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.

~ Jesse Livermore

ASX 200 likely to follow

The ASX 200 indicates short-term buying pressure with a hammer candlestick followed by a harami formation. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also suggests medium-term buying pressure; completion of a large trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 5450 is likely, after the strong showing in US markets, and would signal an advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5350 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

ASX 200 VIX below 15 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

S&P 500: Great follow-through

Sellers evaporated as the S&P 500 followed-through above 1860, closing at 1875 on normal volume. Expect an advance to 1950*. The long-term trend is bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated below 15, typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

A Century of Policy Mistakes | Niels Jensen

In A Century of Policy Mistakes Neils Jensen describes the demise of Argentina over the last 100 years.

A century ago Argentina ranked as one of the wealthiest countries in world, behind the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia but ahead of countries such as France, Germany and Italy. Its per capita income was 92% of the G16 average; it is 43% today. Life in Argentina was good. It enjoyed the benefits of one of the highest growth rates in the world and attracted immigrants left, right and centre. Boom times galore.

Argentina’s wealth was based on agriculture, but also on its strong ties with the UK, the pre-World War I global powerhouse. Equally importantly, it understood the importance of free trade and took advantage of the relatively open markets which prevailed in the years leading to the Great War. Most importantly, though, it benefitted from, but also relied upon, enormous inflows of capital from the rest of the world. All of this is well documented in a recent piece in The Economist which you can find here.

Neils identifies three main causes:

  1. An over-reliance on commodities;
  2. Failure to invest in education; and
  3. An increasingly closed, inward-looking economy.
  4. It occurred to me that, apart from education, Australia has made the same mistakes.

    Read more at A Century of Policy Mistakes | Niels Jensen – Absolute Return Partners | PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.

Footsie signals buying pressure

The FTSE 100 is testing resistance at 6850. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signal buying pressure. Breakout would encounter further resistance at the 1999 high of 7000, so the calculated target of 7200 may be unrealistic. Reversal below 6700 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 6400.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200

E-mini jumps on Putin order

E-mini jumps on Putin order for troops to return to bases (Reuters).

E-mini

Breakout above 1850 is a bullish sign. S&P 500 follow-through above 1860 would signal an advance to 1950.