Stock Markets Archives - Page 151 of 170

March 12, 2012

US markets pause in anticipation of March sell-off

US markets are anticipating a quarter-end sell-off in the second half of March, driven by the tax season and Spring-cleaning of fund balance sheets. The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1370. Breakout would signal the start of another primary advance, with a target of 1450*. Reversal below 1350, however, would warn of a correction, testing support at 1300 and possibly 1250.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 reached its initial target of 2650 and is due for a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 2400.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650

Dow Jones Transport Index has retraced over several weeks to test support at 5000. Respect would signal another attempt at 5600, while failure would indicate that momentum is slowing.

Dow Jones Transport Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 6000 – 4500 ) = 5500

March 7, 2012

ASX 200 breaks support

Australia’s ASX 200 index broke medium-term support at 4175/4180, warning of another test of primary support at 4000. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. The broad band of support between 3800 and 4000 is likely to hold, but failure would signal a decline to 3500*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4300 – 3900 ) = 3500

March 7, 2012

S&P 500 retreats

Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac predicted that we would see an adjustment in the second half of the month. It looks like it may have started a few days early.

Failure of short-term support at 1350 on the S&P 500 index indicates retracement to test medium-term support at 1300. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but this is not mirrored on the long-term (13-week) indicator. Respect of support at 1300 would confirm the primary up-trend — presenting a buying opportunity. Target for the advance is 1450*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

March 5, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX60 index is headed for another test of support at 700. Respect of support would present a buying opportunity, with confirmation from recovery above 720.

TSX60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

March 5, 2012

Trader’s Almanac’s Hirsh says “more of the same”

Jeffrey Hirsch, president of the Hirsch Organization and editor of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” sees “more of the same” for U.S. stocks markets, with solid performance for the year. But first expect an adjustment (of 5 to 15 percent) starting in the second half of March because of:

tax season;
end of quarter sell-off; and
triple witching.

That should present buying opportunities for investors.

The outlook for 2013 is not as good. The first two years of a new presidential term are when bear markets are prevalent. They try to do the hard stuff in the first two years and then prime the pump in the two years leading up to the next election.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/87510666/

March 3, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 Index

The ASX 200 Index is forming a bottom between 4000 and 4400 after breaching its descending trendline. Breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a new up-trend, but that may be some way off. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. For the present we continue in a narrow consolidation below 4300. Upward breakout would test 4400, while breach of the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at 4000.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

March 3, 2012

China & Hong Kong

The Shanghai Composite Index rallied strongly above 2300 after breaking out of its downward trend channel. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow rising strongly indicates good buying pressure. Expect resistance at 2550. Breakout above this level would offer a weak (primary) reversal signal. Stronger confirmation would come if retracement successfully tests support at 2300.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has already started a primary up-trend, with an initial target of 22,500*. Reversal below 21,000 would signal retracement to test the new support level at 20,000, but 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow again indicates buying pressure and we can expect the primary up-trend to continue.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20,000 + ( 20,000 – 17,500 ) = 22,500

March 3, 2012

Japan rising

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for a test of 10,000 after breaking resistance at 9,000 three weeks ago. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow rising strongly indicates good buying pressure. Expect some retracement or consolidation at 10,000, but the primary trend is up and breakout above 10,000 would offer a target of 11,000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10,000 + ( 10,000 – 9,000 ) = 11,000

March 3, 2012

Singapore & Korea

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is in a primary up-trend. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 3000 would confirm the advance to 3200*. Any retracement is likely to encounter support at 2900.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

The Seoul Composite Index shows a similar pattern, running into medium-term resistance between 2000 and 2050. Expect good support at 1950. Breakout above 2050 would confirm the advance to 2200.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + (1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

March 3, 2012

India retraces

The Sensex Index is retracing to test its new support level. Respect of 17200 would indicate that the up-trend is intact, while failure would warn of another test of primary support at 15000. Long-term buying pressure remains healthy if 13-week Twiggs Money Flow forms a trough above the zero line.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

The Nifty Index is similarly testing support at 5200. Recovery above 5600 would confirm the primary up-trend. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a healthy up-trend.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200