Analysis of major stock markets around the world.
The inverted fish hook on the S&P 500 looks promising, with a strong blue candle reversing most of Friday’s losses. Completion of an inverted fish hook (normally called an inverted scallop but I find the former more descriptive) requires a breakout above 2190/2200. Completion of the pattern would offer a strong bull signal with a target of 2400, calculated from the base of the pattern at 2000*.
* Target calculation: 2200 + ( 2200 – 2000 ) = 2400
Interesting paper from the San Francisco Fed by Òscar Jordà, VP Economic Research at the San Francisco Fed, Moritz Schularick, professor of economics at the University of Bonn, and Alan M. Taylor, professor of economics and finance at the University of California, Davis. They discuss the difficulty in identifying asset bubbles and the relationship of asset bubbles to credit.
A defining feature of advanced economies in the post-World War II era is the rise of credit documented in Jordà, Schularick, and Taylor (2016). This is visible in Figure 1, which displays the cross-country average ratio to GDP of unsecured and mortgage lending since 1870. Following a period of relative stability, both lending ratios grew rapidly after the war, with mortgages taking off in the mid-1980s….
Most buyers use mortgages to buy homes, but few savers use borrowed funds to invest in the stock market. Thus, one might expect equity price busts to be less dangerous than collapses in house prices: A crash in the price of assets financed with external (rather than internal) funds is likely to have deeper effects on the economy. As collateral values evaporate, some agents will delever to reduce their debt burden, in turn causing a further collapse in asset prices and in aggregate demand. The more widespread this type of leverage is, the more extensive the damage to the economy. Integrating the role of credit into the analysis of asset price bubbles is therefore critical.
Anna Schwartz discussed the issue in a 2008 interview with the Wall St Journal. Then 92 years old, the co-author with Milton Friedman of A Monetary History of the United States (1963) nailed the cause of asset bubbles:
If you investigate individually the manias that the market has so dubbed over the years, in every case, it was expansive monetary policy that generated the boom in an asset. The particular asset varied from one boom to another. But the basic underlying propagator was too-easy monetary policy and too-low interest rates …..
The problem is not asset bubbles, whether they be in stocks, housing or Dutch tulips. That is merely a symptom of a deeper malaise: too easy monetary policy. The threat is the underlying credit expansion that caused the problem in the first place.
And while asset bubbles may be difficult to measure, credit bubbles are easy to identify. If credit grows at a faster rate than GDP, that is a credit expansion. The ratio of credit to GDP should be maintained in a narrow, horizontal band.
Easy to monitor and easy to correct, if the Fed is looking in the right place. But central banks are good at looking elsewhere — and closing the gate long after the horse has bolted. A similar problem is evident in Australia.
Even worse if we look at household credit to disposable income (on the left below).
Unfortunately the horse has bolted and attempting to contract the level of debt would cause a deflationary spiral with devastating consequences. The only way to restore sanity is to hold debt steady at current (nominal) levels and allow growth and inflation to gradually reduce the GDP ratio to more stable levels.
From Aaron Kuriloff and Corrie Driebusch at WSJ:
Stocks and bonds tumbled Friday, with the Dow industrials and S&P 500 posting their biggest percentage losses since the Brexit selloff.
Fresh signs that central banks could be backing away from easy-money policies helped boost the dollar, while investors sold shares of dividend payers like utilities and telecommunications companies that have been popular with income-seeking investors while rates have been low. Yields on some government bonds reached their highest levels since late June.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 394.46 points, or 2.1%, to 18085.45, and the S&P 500 declined 2.45%, marking the biggest one-day declines for the indexes since late June when a selloff followed the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union….
Friday’s tall red candle is reminiscent of the sharp Brexit drop in June. That lasted two days. Respect of 2100 would complete an inverted scallop — a strong bullish signal — while respect of primary support at 2000 would completed a rounded top which, despite its name, has an even chance of continuing the primary up-trend. Breach of 2000 remains unlikely.
Read more at Stocks Post Biggest Fall Since Brexit Over Rate Fears | WSJ
Spot Gold rallied to test resistance at $1350/ounce. Momentum above zero continues to indicate a primary up-trend. Short retracement (short candles and short duration) would signal a test of the July 2016 high at $1375. Breakout above $1375 would offer a target of $1450*. Breach of support at $1300 is unlikely but would warn of a test of primary support at $1200/ounce.
* Target calculation: 1375 + ( 1375 – 1300 ) = 1450
In Australia the All Ordinaries Gold Index ($XGD) found support at 4500. Expect a test of the recent highs around 5500. The Index is likely to follow the spot gold price, provided the Australian Dollar/US Dollar remains fairly stable. Breakout above 5500 would signal a fresh advance, with a target of 6500*. Breach of 4500 is unlikely but would warn of trend reversal.
* Target calculation: 5500 + ( 5500 – 4500 ) = 6500
From Carol Graham and Julia Ruiz at Brookings Institution:
…Numerous studies have found recurrent patterns between happiness and life satisfaction (while the terms are often used inter-changeably, the latter is a better-specified question) and important experiences such as employment, marital status, and/or earnings. These, in turn, lead to differences in investment profiles, productivity, voting incentives, and attitudes toward health (Graham, Eggers, and Sukhtankar, 2004; DeNeve and Oswald, 2012; De Neve et al., 2013).
Among these relationships, the one between age and happiness—often referred to as “the U-curve”—is particularly striking due to its consistency across individuals, countries, and cultures (Blanchflower and Oswald, 2007; Steptoe, Deaton and Stone, 2015; Graham and Pettinato, 2002). Happiness declines with age for about two decades from early adulthood up until roughly the middle-age years, and then turns upward and increases with age. Although the exact shape differs across countries, the bottom of the curve (or, the nadir of happiness) ranges from 40 to 60 plus years old. Blanchflower and Oswald (2016) find that some markers of ill-being, such as reported mental health and the use of anti-depressants, meanwhile, display inverse patterns, and turn down (as opposed to up) at roughly the same age range in the U.S. and Britain.
Further research is needed to confirm that the bottom of the U-curve coincides with teenage children 😉
Source: Happiness, stress, and age: How the U-curve varies across people and places | Brookings Institution
China’s Shanghai Composite Index steadied and is again testing resistance at 3100. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend. Rising troughs on Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rallied for another test of resistance at 17000. Breakout above 17000 would suggest a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 17600, completing a broad double-bottom, would confirm. Further consolidation, however, is more likely.
India’s BSE Sensex broke out of its narrow rectangle at 28000, signaling another advance. Expect a test of the 2015 high at 30000. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow now appears misleading.
Germany’s DAX is holding above its new support level at 10500. Respect, with follow-through above 10800, would confirm the primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500
France’s CAC-40 Index is consolidating in a narrow band between 4400 and 4500. Upward breakout would suggest a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 4600, completing a broad double bottom, would confirm. Rising Twiggs Money Flow reflects buying pressure.
The Footsie retreated from resistance at 7000 but short candles and strong Twiggs Money Flow, high above zero, suggest long-term buying pressure. Expect strong resistance between 7000 and 7100. Correction to 6500 would establish a more stable base for further advances.
* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5900 ) = 7100
Germany’s DAX respected its new support at 10500. Follow-through above 10800 would confirm the primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 10500 + ( 10500 – 9500 ) = 11500
Italy’s FTSE MIB (Milano Italia Borsa) Index remains in a primary down-trend. Breakout above 17000 and the descending trendline, however, would suggest that a base is forming. Rising Twiggs Money Flow highlights buying pressure.
The Footsie retreated from resistance at 7000 but short candles and rising Twiggs Money Flow suggest buying pressure. Expect another test of 7000/7100 but resistance is strong. Correction to 6500 would establish a more stable base for further advances.
* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 5900 ) = 7100
China’s Shanghai Composite Index retreated below resistance at 3100. Prospects of a primary up-trend have dimmed and further consolidation between 2800 and 3100 is likely.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is pretty directionless, retreating from resistance at 17000. Breach of 16000 would warn of another test of primary support at 15000. But a broad base between 15000 and 17000 is likely.
India’s BSE Sensex is the most promising, consolidating in a bullish narrow range around 28000. Upward breakout would signal a further advance towards the 2015 high of 30000. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure, however, and downward breakout would warn of a correction to 25000 or 26000.
There has been a spike in oil & gas mergers and takeovers in recent months as sellers expectations of a return to $100/barrel oil prices have finally faded.
From Bloomberg:
While crude has recovered, “there seems to be an increasing consensus that oil will not go back to over $100 any time soon,” said Philipp Chladek, a senior industry analyst for BI in London. “So the differing perceptions about the asset values that, next to the volatility, was the main deal-breaker in the past, are gradually converging.”
Light crude prices have rallied from early 2016 lows to test resistance above $50/barrel. December futures retreated from $52/barrel but this does not seem to indicate a reversal. Breakout above $52 would signal a long-term up-trend with a test of resistance around $64/barrel. With slow global growth, however, further consolidation below $52 is more likely.
From Tsvetana Paraskova at Oilprice.com:
Earlier this week, the Russian Economy Ministry said that it expected crude oil prices to remain stable at their current range of US$45-50 over the next two years, with a sustainable improvement beginning in late 2017.
The latest rally in prices, according to a statement by the ministry, has “a speculative nature” and will not last long. The Economy Ministry went on to add in the statement that oil fundamentals were moving in line with “basic forecasts”; that is, the market is on its way to rebalancing, with the glut gradually easing. But this process will take time.
Source: Oil Industry Shifts From Survival to Growth – Bloomberg
