Stock Markets Archives - Page 147 of 170

April 16, 2012

ASX 200 bullish ascending triangle

The weekly chart of the ASX 200 shows the index testing resistance at 4350/4400 in a bullish ascending triangle. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. We need to be cautious because of bearish sentiment in the US and Europe but breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial advance to 5000*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 3800 ) = 5000

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 16, 2012

UK & Europe: Madrid in trouble

The monthly chart of the Madrid General Index highlights the extent of Spain’s problems, with the index breaking support at 750 and headed for its 2009 low of 700. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line warns of a strong down-trend. Failure of 700 would signal a decline to 600*.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 750 – ( 900 – 750 ) = 600

The broader Dow Jones Europe Index is undergoing a correction on the weekly chart. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of medium-term support at 240 is likely and would suggest another test of primary support at 210. Respect of support is unlikely but would indicate that the primary up-trend is intact.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 is testing support at 5600. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, indicating an advance to 6400*.
A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line would signal continued buying pressure. Failure of support, however, would warn that the up-trend is weakening.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5600 ) = 6400

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 16, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 Index broke the band of support at 700, warning of a correction to 650. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns the earlier primary up-trend was a false signal. Expect a test of primary support at 650. Recovery above 700 is unlikely but would indicate resumption of the primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 16, 2012

Selling pressure on S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100

The S&P 500 is testing support at 1350 after penetrating its rising trendline. Failure of support would indicate a correction with an initial target of 1300. Respect of 1300 — and of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — would signal that the primary up-trend is intact and may present a buying opportunity for the more adventurous.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart

On the daily chart, recovery of the S&P 500 above 1400 would suggest a new primary advance, while breach of support at 1350 would signal a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

A similar (21-day Twiggs Money Flow) bearish divergence on the Nasdaq 100 warns of a correction. Breach of the rising trendline strengthens the signal. Follow-through below 2700 would confirm, offering an initial target of 2400.

Nasdaq 100 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 16, 2012

Fedex double top

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal with a break through the neckline at $88. Retracement found resistance at $90 and reversal below the original neckline at $88 would signal a primary down-trend. Follow-through below Tuesday’s low would confirm. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. A primary down-trend on Fedex normally warns of slowing activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Brazil & South Africa

Brazil’s Bovespa Index is in a primary up-trend but currently undergoing a correction. Respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line would strengthen the signal.

Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 60 + ( 60 – 50 ) = 70

South Africa’s JSE Overall Index indicates medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. A correction that respects support at 33000 would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of 36000*.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 34.5 + ( 34.5 – 33 ) = 36

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

UK & Europe correction

Dow Jones Europe Index respected resistance at 260, suggesting another correction. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure; but a trough that respects the zero line would signal a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 240 would also suggest an up-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test of support at 5600. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend, as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5500 + ( 5700 – 5100 ) = 6300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Canada: TSX 60 resistance

Canada’s TSX 60 index is testing medium-term support at 695/700. Another large 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend — as would breakout above 730. Initial target for the advance would be 790*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Bearish divergence for US indices

Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 – 1150) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 index encountered resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow over the last two weeks warns of a correction. Breach of the secondary, rising trendline would indicate a correction to the long-term trendline at 2500.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 -2050 ) = 2750

Bellwether transport stock Fedex warns of a double-top reversal. Longer-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at 88 would signal a primary down-trend — and declining activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 98 – 88 ) = 78

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

India & Singapore

India’s Sensex Index continues to test support at 17000. A trough above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate strong buying pressure. Recovery above 18000 would confirm a primary advance to 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

The Nifty Index displays a similar pattern. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Recovery above 5400 would signal an advance to 6200*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

Singapore Straits Times Index is already in a primary up-trend. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 3040 would confirm an advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.