Stock Markets Archives - Page 140 of 170

June 18, 2012

S&P 500 and Dow: correction is over

The S&P 500 closed Friday above resistance at 1340, confirming the bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (hat tip johnb). Expect retracement to test the new support level, followed by a rally to the March/April high of 1420. Wait for breakout on the Nasdaq 100 to confirm the Dow and S&P 500 signals.

S&P 500 Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average broke medium-term resistance at 12600/12700, indicating a rally to 13300. Expect retracement to first test the new support level. A bounce off the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure — and a likely rally — but the long-term bearish divergence remains and suggests strong resistance at 13300.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Nasdaq 100 has penetrated its descending trendline, signaling a bottom, but has yet to break resistance at 2580 — which would signal an advance to 2800 and confirm the Dow/S&P signals. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100 Index

June 18, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

The TSX 60 continues to test primary support at 640. Positive sentiment on US markets and from Greek election results is likely to fuel a rally. Breakout above 670 would confirm. Breach of the descending trendline would warn that a bottom is forming. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would complete a large bullish divergence, suggesting a primary up-trend. Respect of zero, however, would indicate continuation of the down-trend.

TSX 60 Index

June 17, 2012

Asia-Pacific stocks surge on Greek election results

ASX 200 Index is testing resistance at 4120 after Greek voters narrowly favored the New Democracy party in Sunday’s election — meaning that Greece is likely to remain in the euro-zone. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium term buying pressure — following breach of the descending trendline suggested that the correction was over. Follow-through above 4150 would strengthen the signal, offering a target of the May high at 4450.

ASX 200 Index

Dow Jones South Korea Index respected support at 402. Breakout above 420 would confirm that the down-trend is over. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

Dow Jones South Korea Index

Dow Jones Japan Index is testing the descending trendline and short-term resistance at 49. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum still reflects a primary down-trend, but breach of the descending trendline would warn that a bottom is forming.

Dow Jones Japan Index

Dow Jones Hong Kong Index is testing medium-term resistance at 388. Breach of the descending trendline warns that a bottom is forming. Upward breakout would indicate a rally to 440. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

Dow Jones Hong Kong Index

June 12, 2012

Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 is consolidating above primary support — between 4000 and 4150 — while the sharp fall of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of primary support would indicate a decline to 3600*. Recovery above 4150 is unlikely but would suggest another test of 4450.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 3600

June 12, 2012

China: Double top

Shanghai Composite Index threatens to complete a double top reversal with breakout below the neckline at 2250. Failure of support would offer a target of 2000*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a continuing primary down-trend. Respect of support is less likely, but would indicate that a bottom is forming.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 – ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2000

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index found medium-term support at 18000. A rally that respects resistance at 20000 would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero. Breach of primary support at 17500/18000 would offer a target of 16000*.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 18 – ( 20 – 18 ) = 16

June 12, 2012

India & Singapore

India’s Sensex is testing medium-term resistance at 17000. Breakout would suggest another test of 18000, while reversal below 16000 would test primary support at 15000/15200.
A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the bear signal.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 16 – ( 17 – 16 ) = 15

Singapore’s Straits Times Index found medium-term support at 2700. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. A rally that respects resistance at 2900 would strengthen the signal.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2700 – ( 2900 – 2700 ) = 2500

June 12, 2012

UK & Europe

Dow Jones Europe Index is testing long-term support at 210. Failure would signal a decline to the 2009 low of 150*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) already warns of a primary down-trend, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong selling pressure.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 270 – 210 ) = 150

The FTSE 100 index is retracing to test resistance at 5600. Respect would indicate another primary decline — to test 5000 — while breach of medium-term support at 5250 would confirm. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. A peak below the zero line would further strengthen the signal.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5300 – ( 5600 – 5300 ) = 5000

June 11, 2012

Fedex threatens support

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal, with a break of the neckline at $88, and is now consolidating between $85 and $90. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $85 would confirm, suggesting that economic activity is slowing.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 85 – ( 95 – 85 ) = 75

June 11, 2012April 18, 2024

S&P 500 engulfing candle

Monday’s engulfing candle [R] on the S&P 500 warns of reversal to re-test support at 1270. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate strong medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support would offer a target of 1200*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1270 – ( 1340 – 1270 ) = 1200

June 8, 2012

S&P 500: It's all on the price chart

All indicators do is highlight information that is already visible on the price chart. That is why you need to be careful making decisions based solely on an indicator — because when you summarize (information) you sacrifice. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum displays a bearish divergence, with declining peaks over the last two years while the index has been rising. Careful study of the price chart reveals the same information: a healthy trend should display symmetrical, equally-weighted corrections and advances, you can tell momentum is slowing when advances are weaker and corrections stronger. A trend reversal would only be clear on the monthly chart if the S&P 500 crossed below support at 1100, but declining momentum should warn well in advance that it is forming a top. Recovery above 1400 is unlikely, but would signal that the trend has regained momentum — especially if the Fed introduces QE3.

S&P 500 Index

The Nasdaq 100 is also losing momentum, but slightly. Respect of support at 2400 would indicate a healthy up-trend. Likewise a trough above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2400 ) = 3200