Stock Markets Archives - Page 136 of 170

August 13, 2012

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

Bearish divergence on the S&P 500 Index (21-day Twiggs Money Flow) warns of increasing resistance as the index approaches 1420. Expect retracement to 1360/1380 followed by another attempt at 1420. Breakout would signal another primary advance. Reversal below the trend channel is unlikely but would warn of a correction to test primary support at 1280.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for 2800 on the weekly chart. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates a healthy primary up-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

Bellwether transport stock Fedex, however, is edging lower. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at $84 would confirm the primary down trend signaled by the March-April double-top. That would warn of an economic down-turn.

Fedex

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

August 9, 2012

Treasury yields rising — good for stocks

10-Year Treasury yields are headed for a test of resistance at 1.70 percent after recovery above the descending trendline warned of a “bear trap” — actually a bull trap because yields are the inverse of price. Follow-through above 1.60 percent has confirmed, and breakout above 1.70 would signal an advance to 2.0 percent* — a bullish sign for stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 1.70 + ( 1.70 – 1.40 ) = 2.00

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 8, 2012

Asia: India recovering but China & Japan bearish

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its upper trend channel at 2160. Follow-through would indicate a rally to 2250, while reversal would indicate a decline to 2040*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2160 – 2100 ) = 2040

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, broke through resistance at 20000 (weekly chart), indicating an advance to 22000*. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would confirm — further strengthened if the descending trendline is penetrated.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index continues to warn of strong selling pressure — with a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000*. Breakout above 9000 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 17500. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 18500. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

NSE Nifty shows a similar picture. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum rising to a new 2012 high would indicate a primary up-trend. Target for the breakout would be 5650*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke through resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact. The calculated target is 3300* but the trend channel suggests resistance around 3200.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 rallies

The ASX 200 broke short-term resistance at 4290, indicating an advance to 4360. Retracement that respects support at 4290/4300 would confirm breakout from the trend channel and an advance to 4450. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. In the longer term, breakout above 4450 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high at 4950.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4290 + ( 4290 – 4220 ) = 4360

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Poll: Do you trust High Frequency Trading to improve stock market pricing??

Please share this via Facebook or Twitter. The more responses we get the more pressure there is on regulators.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Europe and Footsie recovering

Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 720. Breakout would complete a double bottom, offering a target of 840*. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a resurgence, but we are some way off a recovery above zero which would signal a primary up-trend.

Madrid General Index

Dow Jones Europe Index displays a strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, indicating a (primary trend) reversal. Recovery above zero would strengthen the signal. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest a test of resistance at 265.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test resistance at 6000. A trough at zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure but expect strong resistance at 6000 because of the number of previous reversals at this level.

FTSE 100 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

Canada: TSX60 rising broadening wedge

The TSX 60 continues in a rising broadening wedge consolidation rather than a trend channel. Thomas Bulkowski observes that these formations end with a downward breakout 73 per cent of the time. That would threaten primary support at 640 and a decline to 600*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, indicates buying pressure. Respect of support at 640 would suggest a rally to 720. And breakout above 720 would offer a target of 800*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 640 – ( 680 – 640 ) = 600

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 7, 2012

US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 buying pressure

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of 1420 on the weekly chart. Breakout would signal an advance to 1570* — the 2007 high. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates strong long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1270 ) = 1570

The Nasdaq 100 is headed for 2800*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend. Breakout would offer a target of 3150*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

August 1, 2012

Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 is rallying for another test of resistance at 4450. The hourly chart shows brief consolidation below 4300; breakout would signal an advance to 4450. Lackluster performance from the US overnight may inhibit short-term gains and reversal below 4250 would indicate a test of the rising trendline and medium-term support at 4120.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 31, 2012

Asia: China, Japan bearish

There are conflicting reports about whether China is head for a hard or soft landing. China has the reserves and the capacity to implement further infrastructure programs if the economy cools too rapidly. And while its long-term goal is to deflate the speculative real estate bubble, the PBOC has shown itself prepared to kick that can down the road until export markets recover from the euro-zone crisis. The downside to manufacturing a soft landing, as we have already discovered post-GFC, is that the recovery takes longer. So a sharp recovery of Chinese markets is also unlikely.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke its 2011 low at 2150 on the weekly chart, indicating a decline to 1800*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of rising selling pressure. Recovery above 2250 remains unlikely, but would suggest another attempt at 2500.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

The Shenzhen Composite Index broke support at 880 to confirm the Shanghai signal. The peak below zero on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum also indicates a primary down-trend.

Shenzhen Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is more resilient, testing resistance at 20000 on the weekly chart. Breakout would indicate an advance to 22000* — strengthened if 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovers above zero. Reversal below 19000 is less likely but would warn of a decline to 16000 — confirmed if support at 18000 is broken.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is headed for another test of resistance at 9000 on the weekly chart, but a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support would signal another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000, while breakout above 9000 would signal an advance to 10000.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex found support around 17000 on the weekly chart and is headed for another attempt at 17500. Breakout is likely and would indicate an advance to 18500. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the recovery signal.

Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index continues to test resistance at 3040. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact, and breakout would signal an advance to 3300*. Narrow oscillation around zero, however would warn of a ranging market.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.