Category: Stock Markets

India’s Sensex followed through after breaking resistance at 17500, confirming a primary advance to 18500*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate strong buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

Singapore’s Straits Times Index, also in a primary up-trend, is consolidating above former resistance at 3040. Reversal below 3000 would signal a test of the lower trend channel. It is still unclear whether 63-day Twiggs Momentum will oscillate around zero, indicating a ranging market, or above zero, indicating a healthy up-trend. A trough above zero would resolve this.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index broke through resistance at 9100, signaling a primary advance to 10000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero continues to warn of selling pressure; recovery would confirm the advance.

* Target calculation: 9100 + ( 9100 – 8200 ) = 10000

The daily chart shows China’s Shanghai Composite Index testing support at 2100. Failure would indicate a test of the lower trend channel, while respect would test medium-term resistance at 2180. Breakout above the trend channel  would warn of another bear rally. Follow-through above 2180 would confirm. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 2100 – ( 2180 – 2100 ) = 2020

The Hang Seng continues to consolidate above resistance at 20000. Follow-through would indicate an advance to 22000*.  Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

India’s Sensex broke resistance at 17500, signaling a primary up-trend. Expect an advance to 18500*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — above zero — indicates strong buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

NSE Nifty is testing resistance at 5350. Breakout would confirm the Sensex primary up-trend. Rising 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is promising but we need a trough above zero to signal a strong up-trend. Target for the breakout would be 5650*.

* Target calculation: 5350 + ( 5350 – 5050 ) = 5650

Understanding Momentum

Momentum is an oscillator, so you would expect equal peaks if the trend is constant. If oscillating above zero, it would be a constant up-trend; below zero, a constant down-trend; with zero at the mid-point, a ranging market. Divergence should ideally show a clear transition from one to the other or at least a sharp difference in the height of peaks or troughs. A trendline drawn under rising momentum will indicate that momentum is accelerating; a trendline break would indicate slowing acceleration — not necessarily a reversal.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing resistance at 9000 but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of strong selling pressure, with a peak below zero. Breakout above 9000 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 10000. Failure of support at 8200 would indicate another test of the 2008/2009 lows at 7000*.

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 9000 – 8000 ) = 7000

China’s Shanghai Composite Index retreated below support at 2150; follow-through below 2100 would indicate a decline to 2000*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a primary down-trend.

* Target calculation: 2250 – ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2000

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is more bullish, consolidating above resistance at 20000. Follow-through would indicate an advance to 22000*.  Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would suggest a primary up-trend.

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is similarly consolidating above former resistance at 3040. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum — above zero — indicates the primary up-trend is intact. Calculated target is 3300* but the trend channel suggests resistance at 3200.

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300