Stock Markets Archives - Page 129 of 170

November 1, 2012

The “Make Believe” NYSE Opening | The Big Picture

Good observation from Barry Ritholz about window dressing:

I was trying to figure out why the NYSE would open when not at full operating capacity……… Mutual funds are closing out their year on October 31st. I suspect they are desperate to get one last positive mark on the books before the new year begins.

via The “Make Believe” NYSE Opening | The Big Picture.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

October 30, 2012

Australia: Stocks may be fully priced

Christopher Joye from the AFR suggests that Australia’s sharemarket may be “fully priced”:

New analysis from UBS poses an interesting puzzle: we have yet to see ASX earnings per share recover to pre-crisis levels. Top-rated UBS strategists Matthew Johnson and Andrew Lilley find that “aggregate equity market data shows declining earnings and weakening corporate balance sheets” in 2012…..

via Sting in inflation surprise.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

Asia: China & Japan weak, India & HK bullish

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected resistance at 2150 and the descending trendline, indicating another down-swing. Breach of support at 2000 would confirm. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below its rising trendline would strengthen the bear signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index. Breakout above 22000 would indicate a primary advance with a long-term target of 26000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 22 + ( 22 – 18 ) = 26

India’s Sensex continues to test its new support level at 18500. Recovery above 19000 would confirm the primary up-trend, while breach of support at 18000 would warn of a test of primary support at 16500. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum favors a primary advance.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is in a weak up-trend, consolidating below 3100. Breach of support at 3000 would test the lower edge of the trend channel. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would suggest further consolidation, while a fall below -5% would indicate a primary down-trend.

Straits Times Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 9200. Breakout would indicate a rally to 10200. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, however, continues to indicate a down-trend. Respect of 9200 would indicate another test of primary support at 8500.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite index is testing support at 1900. Breach would warn of a correction to primary support at 1750. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

Seoul Composite Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 trend channel

The ASX 200 failed to hold on to early gains Monday. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel. Weakness in US or Asian markets could cause a breach of the 4400 support level, indicating a correction to 4000. Respect of support, however, would indicate a healthy up-trend — and an advance to 4900*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4450 + ( 4450 – 4000 ) = 4900

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

Europe: Dax buying pressure

Germany’s Dax continues to test medium-term support at 7200. Respect of support would signal strong accumulation. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 7600 would confirm a primary up-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 7000+ ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

The FTSE 100 (daily chart) is testing support at 5740/5750. Long tails suggest short-term buying pressure but bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling. Breach of support would signal a correction. Breakout above 6000/6100 is unlikely at present, but would offer a long-term target of 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

Canada: TSX Composite

The TSX Composite Index is consolidating between 12100 and 12800. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above 12500 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through above 12800 would confirm.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12750 + ( 12750 – 11200 ) = 14300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

US: Signs a top is forming?

The S&P 500 continues to test support at 1400. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns that a top may be forming. Breach of support would strengthen the signal. The market is currently enjoying the “honeymoon” period in the lead up to the election. Reality is likely to bite after the results are in, as the government deals with some tough choices — like how to create jobs while reducing the budget deficit.

S&P 500 Index
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly testing support at 13000 on the weekly chart. Breach of support — and the primary trendline — would warn that a top is forming. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero would indicate rising selling pressure, while a trough above the line would suggest another primary advance. Recovery above 13650 is unlikely at present but would confirm an advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 23, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 test of 4400

The ASX 200 is retracing to test support at 4400/4450. Respect would confirm a primary advance to 4900*. But correction in US markets is likely and would cause a breach of the ASX 200 rising trendline. Respect of 4250, however, would still indicate a healthy up-trend — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4450 + ( 4450 – 4000 ) = 4900

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 23, 2012

Asian market update

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing medium-term resistance at 2150. Breach of the descending trendline would suggest that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also indicates that the down-trend is weakening.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

India’s Sensex continues to test its new support level at 18500. Follow-through above 19000 would confirm the primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates buying pressure.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for another test of resistance at 9200. Breakout would indicate a rally to 10200. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Respect of 9200 would indicate another test of primary support at 8500.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 23, 2012

Europe and FTSE testing resistance

Dow Jones Europe Index continues to consolidate between 250 and 265, testing primary resistance. Upward breakout would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high at 310. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 250, however, would warn of another correction.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

The FTSE 100 is similarly consolidating below 6000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates buying pressure. Expect strong resistance at 6000/6100. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.