Stock Markets Archives - Page 124 of 170

January 28, 2013

For Stocks, Are Record Highs Warranted? | WSJ

Steven Russolillo at WSJ writes on the latest morning note from Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group:

Colas says he believe stocks are “clearly setup for a pullback” over the next month, given the strong complacency that has engulfed investors of all stripes. That said, he says stocks still look attractive over a longer-term time horizon.

via For Stocks, Are Record Highs Warranted? – MarketBeat – WSJ.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

January 28, 2013

Cosco Expects Large 2012 Loss | WSJ.com

Colum Murphy at WSJ writes:

SHANGHAI—China Cosco Holdings Co., the country’s largest shipping company by fleet size, said it expects to report a large net loss for 2012, marking the second year of losses in a row and an imminent downgrading of the status of its yuan-denominated A shares by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. State-controlled Cosco, whose businesses include container and dry-bulk shipping as well as port operations, said Friday the expected loss would be the result of a weak container shipping market and high fuel costs.

Weak container shipping reflects poor manufactured exports.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 25, 2013

Visible Hand Of The Fed | Business Insider

Lance Roberts writes:

While the Fed programs that we have witnessed since the financial crisis are historically unique — liquidity driven markets are not. We have witnessed the effects of excess liquidity in the bull market cycle prior to the 2008 financial crisis. The only difference during that cycle was that, through government intervention, real estate was turned into an ATM allowing mortgage equity withdrawals to be the liquidity source for the economy and the markets…….

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 25, 2013

ASX 200 approaches key resistance level

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (shown below) signaling buying pressure. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000. S&P 500 breakout above its 2007 high would enhance buying pressure, while failure would suggest a re-test of medium-term ASX 200 support at 4500.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 25, 2013

S&P 500 threatens breakout

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of the 2000/2007 highs at 1550/1565. Expect resistance but troughs above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 1750*. Breach of the rising trendline would test of support at the long-term trendline — around 1400.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 25, 2013

Canada: TSX breakout

The TSX Composite broke through 12800, confirming the primary up-trend signaled earlier by a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero and 12500 breakout. Expect an advance to the 2011 high of 14300*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12800 + ( 12800 – 11300 ) = 14300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 17, 2013

Stocks: The year ahead

A quick recap of the quarterly chart overview from December 2012:

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high at 1550. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum and a lackluster economy suggest that resistance is unlikely to be broken. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate a test of support at 1100.

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX Composite Index is gaining momentum. Follow-through above 13000 would indicate another test of 15000.

Apple

Germany’s DAX threatens a breakout above 8000. Follow-through above 8200 would confirm a strong primary advance.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 broke resistance at 6000, suggesting an advance to 7000.

FTSE 100 Index

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 21000. Rising momentum indicates breakout is likely, heralding a fresh primary advance.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index lags behind, but breakout above 3300 is likely and would indicate an advance to 3900.

Apple

The Shanghai Composite is headed for a re-test of long-term support at 1800/1750. Rising momentum suggests that a bottom will form at this level. Recovery above 2500 and/or the declining trendline would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000, but weakness in China or the US may delay this for some time.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 24, 2012

Stocks: Outlook for 2013

Quarterly charts for the last two decades give a good idea of where stocks will be headed in 2013.

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high at 1550. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates that resistance is unlikely to be broken. While this does not mean another fall to 750, it does suggest a strong correction.

S&P 500 Index

Apple Inc. [AAPL] is no longer leading the advance but testing primary support at 500. Failure of support would confirm the primary down-trend indicated by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero.

Apple

Germany’s DAX is also headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high, at 8200, but rising momentum indicates that breakout above resistance is likely.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 is also advancing but is some way off its earlier high of 7000 and breakout appears unlikely.

FTSE 100 Index

India’s Sensex is more bullish and likely to break resistance at 21000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Shanghai Composite is headed in the opposite direction and likely to re-test long-term support at 1800/1750. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) suggests that a bottom will form at this level.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000, but weakness in China and the US may delay this for some time.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 17, 2012

Asia: China rally

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at 2150. While a large correction — signaled by breakout above 2150 — is not a reliable reversal signal, it does indicate that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also suggests a reversal. But only a higher trough followed by a new high on the index chart would confirm.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex is consolidating in a narrow range below 19500. Breakout is likely and would indicate an advance to 20000*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates long-term buying pressure, but bearish divergence warns of medium-term resistance. Reversal below 19000 is unlikely but would warn that the advance is losing momentum.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is advancing to resistance at 10000/10200*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates buying pressure; look for a trough above zero to confirm.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 17, 2012

DAX breakout

DAX follow-through above 7600 would confirm its earlier (7500) breakout signal for a primary advance. One concern: 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is lagging. This may be due to resistance at the 2011 high, but a lower TMO peak would warn of a reversal.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

The FTSE 100 is testing long-term resistance at 6000/6100 but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, again lagging, warns of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would re-test support at 5600, while breakout would offer an initial target of 6400; long-term 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.