Stock Markets Archives - Page 123 of 170

February 11, 2013

Asia: China near 1 year high

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at its 2012 high of 2460 on the daily chart. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal a primary up-trend, but the index is overdue for a correction and a higher trough is required to confirm the reversal.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index already indicates a primary up-trend. Reversal below 23000, however, would warn of a correction.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex is testing its secondary rising trendline, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure. Breach of the trendline would indicate a correction to test 18000/18200.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3300. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to 3900*.

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index retreated from its 2010 high of 11500. Reversal below 11000 would suggest a correction to 10000. Respect of support would indicate a breakout above 11500 — and a fresh primary advance.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 8000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

February 11, 2013

Europe: DAX selling pressure

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test its (secondary) rising trendline on the daily chart. Respect would signal another advance — as would a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Germany’s DAX is retracing to test support at 7500 on the monthly chart. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would indicate a correction to test the rising trendline — around 7000.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

Italy’s MIB index retreated below the new support level of 17000. Breach of the rising trendline — and support at 16000 — would warn of a bull trap. But a 63-day Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary advance to 19000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 15000 ) = 19000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 11, 2013

Canada: TSX buying pressure

The TSX Composite continues to test resistance at 12800. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 12800 would signal an advance to the 2011 high at 14300*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12800 + ( 12800 – 11300 ) = 14300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 11, 2013

S&P 500 reverse pennant

The S&P 500 displays a small broadening wedge (reverse pennant) on the daily chart. Respect of support at 1500 on the last down-swing (within the wedge) suggests an upward breakout. Watch for bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow — which would warn of retracement to the rising trendline.

S&P 500 Index

The quarterly chart warns us to expect strong resistance at the 2000/2007 highs of 1550/1575. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above 10% would increase likelihood of an upward breakout — with a target of 1750* — while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

The Dow is similarly testing long-term resistance, at 14000. Breakout is likely, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs at zero indicating long-term buying pressure.
S&P 500 Index

I repeat my warning from last week:

These are times for cautious optimism. Central banks are flooding markets with freshly printed money, driving up stock prices, but this could create a bull trap if capital investment, employment and corporate earnings fail to respond.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 6, 2013

Hedge Funds Are Now Buying Stocks While Retail Investors Sell | Business Insider

Matthew Boesler writes:

We have noted how, based on weekly data from BofA Merrill Lynch, it appears that hedge funds have been sellers of stocks for the last several weeks, while on the flip-side of the coin, individual investors have been buying up stocks at a rapid pace over the same timeframe. Now – coincident with the “rough patch” the S&P 500 has run into the market hasn’t really gone down, just sideways – those roles appear to have reversed.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

ASX 200 approaches key resistance level

The ASX 200 is retracing today to test short-term support at 4900 but medium-term buying pressure — as indicated by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero — suggests a test of 5000.

ASX 200 Index

Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout above 5000 would offer a long-term target of 6000*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

Asia rallies

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a test of resistance at 2500. Crossover of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero — and breach of the declining trendline — suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2500 would strengthen the signal. But only a higher trough followed by a new high on the index chart would confirm.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex retreated below 20000, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect a correction to test support at 19000 but long-term buying pressure should ensure that the up-trend continues.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 19 + ( 19 – 18 ) = 20

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3300. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to 3900*.

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 2700 ) = 3900

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for its 2010 high at 11500. A spike in 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would suggest a primary advance to 14500*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 – 8000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

Europe: Italy tests support while UK and Germany surge

Italy’s MIB index retreated from resistance at 18000 to re-test the key support level of 17000. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend with an initial target of 19000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 15000 ) = 19000

Germany’s DAX primary advance is approaching the 2007 high at 8000/8200. Resistance is evident, with shorter candles over the last two months and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow declining from its 2012 peak. Expect a correction, but long-term buying pressure (signaled by rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow) should see continuation of the primary up-trend.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

The FTSE 100 broke through resistance at 6000 and is advancing toward its 2007 high of 6750*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure, while the recent spike should see strong gains in February.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

Canada: TSX bull trap?

The TSX Composite retreated below 12800, indicating hesitancy on the part of investors. Expect retracement to test support at 12500. Failure of support would signal a bull trap. Long-term buying pressure remains strong, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow; another trough above zero would confirm the primary up-trend. Recovery above 12800 would signal an advance to the 2011 high at 14300*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12800 + ( 12800 – 11300 ) = 14300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 3, 2013

S&P 500 buying pressure

The S&P 500 displays evidence of buying pressure on the daily chart, with brief retracement to test support at 1500 followed by a surge to a new 5-year high. Expect a test of the 2000/2007 highs at 1550/1565.

S&P 500 Index

Troughs above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate longer-term buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 1750*. Reversal below 1500, however, would warn of a widely predicted correction.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum on the Nasdaq 100, however, warns of a reversal. Respect of resistance at 2800 would strengthen the warning, while retreat below 2500 would complete a head and shoulders reversal. Follow-through above 2900 is less likely, but would confirm a bull market signal from the Dow/S&P 500.
S&P 500 Index

These are times for cautious optimism. Central banks are flooding markets with freshly printed money, driving up stock prices, but this could create a bull trap if corporate earnings, capital investment and employment fail to respond.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.