Stock Markets Archives - Page 113 of 170

August 12, 2013

Anemic Business Investment Indicts U.S. Policies | Cato @ Liberty

Daniel J. Ikenson at the Cato Institute highlights the declining share of global investment attracted to the US as developing countries grow more competitive:

The good news is that the $3.5 trillion of foreign direct investment parked in the United States accounted for 17 percent of the world’s direct investment stock in 2011 – more than triple the share of the next largest single-country destination. The troubling news is that in 1999 the United States accounted for 39 percent of the world’s investment stock.

Politicians need to be aware that they are competing, as a country, for new investment against a myriad of other attractive options.

Unlike ever before, the world’s producers have a wealth of options when it comes to where and how they organize product development, production, assembly, distribution, and other functions on the continuum from product conception to consumption. As businesses look to the most productive combinations of labor and capital, to the most efficient production processes, and to the best ways of getting products and services to market, perceptions about the business environment can be determinative.

Their focus should be on minimizing red tape, lowering taxes, stabilizing exchange rates and ensuring competitive prices for basic goods and services. Failure to adapt could lead to a dearth of new investment and the consequent problems now evident in Southern Europe.

August 12, 2013

ASX 200 tests resistance

The ASX 200 rallied off support at 5000. Breakout above 5120 would indicate an advance to 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow supports the signal. Reversal below 5000 is unlikely, but would test medium-term support at 4850. Breakout above 5250 would present a long-term target of 5850*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

The ASX 200 Volatility Index ($XVI) below 15 is a bullish sign.

ASX 200 Index

August 12, 2013

Europe: DAX bullish, but FTSE selling pressure

Germany’s DAX recovered above the 2007 high at 8200. Follow-through above 8500 would offer a long-term target of 9500*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 8000 is now unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

The FTSE 100 is consolidating between 6500 and the 2007 high of 6750. Breakout above 6750 would signal an advance to the 1999 high of 7000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of a correction. Reversal below 6500 is likely, and would indicate a test of 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 900. Long-term 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains weak, but breakout above 900 would indicate an advance to 1050*.

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

August 12, 2013

S&P 500 healthy up-trend

The S&P 500 is again testing resistance at 1700 after a short retracement. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure, but breakout above 1700 would signal an advance to 1800*. Reversal below 1675 would test support at 1650.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

But the primary up-trend shown on the quarterly chart is healthy and, while correction to the rising trendline would be reasonable, trend reversal is unlikely.
S&P 500 Index

The VIX below 15 indicates low market risk.

VIX Index

Canada’s TSX 60 VIX is similarly bullish.

TSX 60 VIX Index

The TSX Composite Index is testing support at 12400. Penetration of the declining trendline would indicate the correction is over and advance to 12900/13000 likely. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would suggest a healthy up-trend. Breach of support remains as likely, however, and would test 12250. In the long-term, breakout above 12900/13000 would offer a long-term target of 14000*.
TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

August 11, 2013

Marketview: Careful of that ticking noise under the hood | Dynamic Hedge

Dynamic Hedge writes:

A few weeks back I noted that the market had the potential to “shift gears into full rocket mode or sputter out at the 1700 figure and back fill.” So far, it has chosen to sputter out at the 1700 level. We now have more information and can confirm that under the hood, the market is not as strong as we’d like to see. It is too early to tell if we are in real danger here, but market conditions like usually mean you should ratchet down your risk tolerance: tighten up stops, or move to overall defensive positions. I do not feel that the overall bull run has concluded, but you’ve got to be aware of the warning signs….

For more on the warning signs, read Marketview: Careful of that ticking noise under the hood | Dynamic Hedge.

August 8, 2013

S&P 500 and Europe cause ASX 200 to hesitate

Mildly bearish sentiment in the US and Europe is causing hesitancy on the ASX 200, while China continues to consolidate above long-term support.

The S&P 500 retreated below resistance at 1700, indicating a test of support at 1675. Longish tails on the last two candles are indicative of buying. Recovery above 1700 would signal continuation of the advance to 1800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, reflects selling pressure and breach of 1675 is more likely, testing the stronger support level at 1650. Primary support is some way off at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

Recovery of Dow Jones Europe Index above 290 indicates an advance to 310*. Follow-through above 295 strengthens the signal, but divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests that a top may be forming. Reversal of TMO below zero would strengthen the warning.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 290+ ( 290 – 270 ) = 310

China’s Shanghai Index holds steady above long-term support at 1950. Breakout above 2100 would suggest a rally to the downward trendline, but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure and breach of support at 1950 would offer a target of 1750*.

Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 1950 – ( 2150 – 1950 ) = 1750

Australia’s ASX 200 found support at 5000 after falling sharply on Wednesday. Recovery above 5100 would indicate another test of 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow close to zero suggests hesitancy. Breach of 5000 is as likely, and would test the stronger support level of 4850, providing a more robust foundation for further advances.

ASX 200 Index

August 6, 2013

Global up-trend

The Dow Jones Global Index makes interesting viewing, with the index displaying a healthy primary up-trend since late 2011. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate trend strength — as does the last trough on the index chart ending well above support at 260 from the previous peaks. Breakout above 290 would indicate an advance to 310*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 290 + ( 290 – 270 ) = 310

August 3, 2013

ASX 200 completes flag

The ASX 200 broke out of its narrow flag, indicating an advance to 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow supports the signal. Reversal below 5000 is unlikely, but would test medium-term support at 4850. The ASX 200 Volatility Index ($XVI) remains below 15 — a bullish sign.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

August 3, 2013

S&P 500 follows through

The S&P 500 followed through above resistance at 1700, indicating an advance to 1800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure, but this is not as pronounced on the weekly chart and a peak above the May high would negate this. Reversal below support at 1675 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 82.50. Breakout would indicate the correction is over, suggesting an advance to 84.50. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

Dollar Index

We received some bad data for gold from our Forex & Precious metals data supplier. Here is the corrected chart and our revised comments:

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1350 – 1200 ) = 1050

Gold continues to test support at $1300/ounce. Breach would suggest another test of primary support at $1200, while failure of primary support would offer a target of $1050*. Dollar Index breakout above 82.50 would strengthen the bear signal. Recovery above 1350 is less likely, but would indicate continuation of the rally to $1400/ounce.

July 29, 2013

Asia retreats but ASX 200 soldiers on

Japan opened sharply lower on Monday, with Dow Jones Japan Index testing its long-term rising trendline at 75. Failure of support at 69 would signal a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Japan Index

The Nikkei 225 is similarly testing its rising trendline. Declining peaks on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate selling pressure. Failure of support at 12500 would signal a primary down-trend. Recovery above 15000 is unlikely but would test 16000.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support at 1950. Breakout would signal a primary decline, with a target of the 2008 low at 1660. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Respect of 1950 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to 2150.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex found resistance at 20200, retreating toward its rising trendline. Penetration of the trendline would warn the trend is weakening, while failure of support at 18500 would signal a primary down-trend. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, indicate moderate buying pressure. Respect of support at 19000 would suggest another primary advance; confirmed if resistance at 20200 is broken.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 – 18000 ) = 22000

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a narrow flag above the new support level at 5000. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a test of the May peak at 5250. Oscillation of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Reversal below 4850 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

The ASX 200 Volatility Index below 15 also indicates low market risk — a bullish sign.
ASX Volatility Index