Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments: “the developed world is verging on catastrophe…. we are facing an unprecedented bust in risk-free (bond) markets.”
Hat tip to Marcus Padley
The Quants Run Wall Street Now | WSJ
From Gregory Zuckerman and Bradley Hope:
For decades, investors imagined a time when data-driven traders would dominate financial markets. That day has arrived.
…. quantitative hedge funds are now responsible for 27% of all U.S. stock trades by investors, up from 14% in 2013, according to the Tabb Group, a research and consulting firm in New York.
Quants now dominate the short-term trading market but active managers (homo sapiens) are still very dominant in the much larger long-term investment market. And this is unlikely to change any time soon.
Fidelity Reviewed Which Accounts Did Best And What They Found Was Hilarious | Business Insider
From Miles Udland:
[James O’Shaughnessy of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management] relays one anecdote from an employee who recently joined his firm that really makes your head spin.
O’Shaughnessy: “Fidelity had done a study as to which accounts had done the best at Fidelity….They were the accounts [of] people who forgot they had an account at Fidelity.”
There are numerous studies that explain why this happens. And they almost always come down to the fact that our minds work against us. Due to our behavioural biases, we often find ourselves buying high and selling low.
I have always called this “the Siemens effect” from an example I came across, in a completely different field, about 30 years ago. German electronics giant Siemens built a telecommunications exchange in a sealed container, where no human could have access and all maintenance was conducted from an outside control panel. The exchange experienced only a small fraction of the equipment failures experienced in a normal telecommunications exchange, leading to the conclusion that human intervention by maintenance staff caused most of the faults.
Likewise in investment, if you build the equivalent of a sealed system. Where there is no direct human intervention, you are likely to experience better performance than if there is constant tinkering to “improve” the system.
The caveat is, during an electrical storm it may be advisable to shut the telecommunications exchange down from the control panel. Likewise, with stocks, when macroeconomic and volatility filters warn of elevated risk, the system should move to cash or assets (e.g. government bonds) with low or negative correlation to stocks.
Read more at Fidelity Reviewed Which Accounts Did Best And What They Found Was Hilarious | Business Insider.
To sell or not to sell?
Recent acquisition Northern Star Resources [NST] in the ASX 200 portfolio is a great example of the conundrum faced by long-term investors when a new stock leaps out of the starting blocks. Profit-taking is evident from the tall shadows/wicks early in the week and in the decline of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Medium-term selling pressure suggests the stock is likely to retrace and give back some of the gains of the last two weeks. The temptation must be great to sell the stock and lock in profits of close to 30 percent.
It is important, however, to stick to the plan. We are investing for a longer time frame in anticipation of much larger gains. There is no guarantee that any individual stock, including NST, will deliver. But I can guarantee you that they will not deliver long-term gains if you sell within the first few weeks.
Investors in S&P 500 stock Micron Technology [MU] faced a similar conundrum in July 2013. The stock had put in a good run from $9.00 before encountering profit-taking as it approached $15.00. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow retreated below zero and the stock fell back to $12.50. Many investors would have taken this as a sign to get out.
With hindsight, the decision to stay the course looks easy: support held at $12.50 and MU is now trading at $33.00. But I am sure that there were many investors who forgot their original plan and took profits at $12.50.
….They just aren’t bragging about it.
Quant Funds Are Hot Again | Morningstar
By Greg Carlson
Funds that use quantitative stock-picking models are on a roll. A list of 52 U.S.-sold quant funds compiled by Morningstar beat more than 80% of their respective peers over the trailing three years through June 13, and the group outperformed its respective peers in 2011, 2012, 2013, and thus far in 2014.
Read more at Quant Funds Are Hot Again.