Iron ore spot prices bounced off support at $63/tonne. Follow-through above $68 would suggest another rally to test resistance at $80 but that seems unlikely given the current threat of a trade war.
The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index found support at 3750. Breakout above 4000 would signal another advance but reversal below 3750 and a correction to test primary support at 3400 are more likely if iron ore retreats.
The ASX 300 Banks index continues to consolidate in a bullish narrow band above its new support level at 8000. Follow-through above 8100 would suggest another advance, with a target of 8700. The index is still in a primary down-trend but it is evident that a bottom is forming. A higher low on the next correction, followed by a new high, would signal the start of a primary up-trend.
The banking sector faces the prospect of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and I remain wary.
The ASX 200 is again testing resistance at 6300. Breakout would signal a primary advance with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750.
Technical signals suggest a primary advance while economic indicators warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market. I remain cautious, with more than 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.
