Gold & Precious Metals Archives - Page 9 of 34

August 3, 2019

Gold rallies as the Dollar retreats

A tall shadow on the Dollar Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of the new support level at 98 would indicate a test of the rising trendline at 96. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of selling pressure. A weakening Dollar will increase demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold is testing resistance at $1440/1450 after consolidating above short-term support at $1400. A Trend Index trough above zero indicates buying pressure. Breakout above $1450 is likely and would offer a short-term target of $1500/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

July 27, 2019

Gold: The rally continues

The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 98; breakout would offer a target of 100. The stronger Dollar has softened demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

Silver is retracing to test its new support level after breakout above $16. Respect of support at $16 would signal an advance to $17.50. Gold and silver tend to move in unison.

Spot Silver in USD

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is retracing after a strong rally. A correction of short duration would be a bullish sign, suggesting another advance.

Gold Bugs Index

Spot Gold continues to consolidate above short-term support at $1400, indicating buying pressure. Upward breakout is likely and would offer a medium-term target of $1500/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 20, 2019

Gold: Every cloud has a Silver lining

Long-term interest rates are declining after more dovish speeches from the Fed, with 10-year Treasury yields re-testing support at 2.0%. The opportunity cost of holding gold is low.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Dollar Index is likely to weaken, testing primary support at 95. A weakening Dollar boosts demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

A big gain in Silver this week is likely to be followed by a similar move in Gold. The two precious metals tend to move in unison. Breakout above $16.00/ounce signals an advance to $17.50.

Spot Silver in USD

Gold is consolidating above short-term support at $1400 after a strong advance, indicating buying pressure. Another advance is likely, with a medium-term target of $1500/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 13, 2019July 13, 2019

Gold buying pressure

Long-term interest rates close to zero after inflation, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 2.0%, means that the opportunity cost of holding gold is minimal.

10-Year Treasury Yields

A weakening Dollar Index is expected to test primary support at 95, further boosting demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

Gold found short-term support at $1400 after a strong advance, indicating buying pressure. Respect of support at $1350/$1400 would offer a medium-term target of $1500/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 29, 2019

Gold tests support

The Dollar Index found short-term support at 96. The medium-term target is primary support at 95.

Dollar Index

Gold retraced to test short-term support at $1400. This is a primary advance. Respect of $1350/$1400 would signal a test of the medium-term target at $1500/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 22, 2019

Dollar dives and Gold soars

The Dollar Index penetrated its rising trendline and is headed for a test of support at 95.

Dollar Index

The falling Dollar boosted Gold. Breakout above resistance at $1350 indicates a fresh advance, with a medium-term target of $1500/ounce. Retracement that respects the new support level ($1350) would strengthen the bull signal.

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 15, 2019June 15, 2019

Gold lifted by rising Treasuries and falling Dollar

10-Year Treasury yields are testing LT support at 2.00% after falling 120 basis points (bps) since late last year.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Rising global uncertainty has caused a massive outflow from equity funds into bonds.

‘Since the beginning of the year, total equity-fund outflows have tipped the scales at $155 billion, while bonds absorbed aggregate inflows of $182 billion over the same period, the largest bifurcation between the two asset classes in 15-plus years.’ https://t.co/4JpD5J6KzM pic.twitter.com/QD6E5hCkRU

— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) June 13, 2019

The Dollar Index penetrated its rising trendline, warning of a correction to test 95.

Dollar Index

Demand for Gold is boosted by lower bond yields and a lower Dollar. Spot Gold breakout above resistance at $1350 would signal a fresh advance, offering a medium-term target of $1500/ounce (short-term: $1400).

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 8, 2019

Gold surges as the Dollar falls

The latest rally in Gold reinforces my bearish outlook for equities. Gold and Treasuries are rising as investors seek a safe haven from the likely turmoil in equities.

The Dollar Index plunged below its LT rising trendline, warning of a test of 95.

Dollar Index

Gold responded, testing resistance at $1350. Breakout above $1350 would offer a medium-term target of $1400/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 1, 2019

Gold resurgence

Gold recovered above $1300/ounce, signaling another test of resistance at $1350. This may be the watershed that I spoke of last week, where safe haven demand for Gold surges. Breakout above $1350 would signal a fresh advance.

Spot Gold in USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 25, 2019

Gold at a watershed

Silver found short-term support at $14.50/ounce but declining Trend Index peaks indicate selling pressure and a test of primary support at $14 is likely.

Spot Silver in USD

Gold, by contrast, has found strong support at $1280/ounce, refusing to give way despite concerted selling. Breach of 1280 would signal a test of primary support at 1180 but recovery above 1300 becomes increasingly likely the longer that support holds.

Spot Gold in USD

A rising Dollar would weaken demand for Gold but the Dollar Index has met strong resistance between 97 and 98. Follow-through above 98 would signal a fresh advance but a fall below 97 would be bullish for Gold.

Dollar Index

10-Year Treasury yields have also broken support at 2.4% offering a short-term target of 2.2%. Falling Treasury yields have a depressing effect on the Dollar and boost demand for Gold (by lowering the opportunity cost).

10-Year Treasury Yield

Gold is therefore at a watershed. Breach of strong support for Gold at $1280 would be a strong bear signal but respect would be a bullish sign, suggesting another advance. Probability is still favor of the bearish scenario but the bull case is strengthening.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.