Bitcoin Flags Shift to Risk-Off
Key Points
- Brent Crude falls below $75 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.
- However, crude oil reserves continue to decline.
- Bitcoin is testing primary support, and stocks are weakening.
- The Dollar is stronger, while Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce.
Brent Crude futures (Aug’26) fell below $75 per barrel on reports of increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
From HFI Research:
The market is pricing a clean reopening, right on schedule. I am not convinced…
A reopening is neither as close nor as clean as the market would have us believe. Tankers have to start entering the Gulf for shut-in wells to be brought back on production. Minesweeping alone takes weeks after any ceasefire, redirected tankers need 30 to 40 days to reposition, and Tehran can keep the mere threat of attack alive to throttle passage at will.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserves continue to decline at the rate of 9 million barrels a week, falling to 331 million barrels on June 19.
The ceasefire remains tenuous, with hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon a potential flashpoint. From Reuters:
In Washington, Lebanon and Israel discussed a U.S.-backed proposal for Israel’s forces to pull out of some territory it invaded to be handed back to Lebanese army control. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would not pull troops out.
…At home, the reckoning is equally stark, said former U.S. official Dennis Ross. Netanyahu is increasingly boxed in between a U.S. president intent on ending the conflict and a domestic base resistant to concessions, particularly in Lebanon, he said. Withdrawal risks political backlash while escalation risks confrontation with Washington.
Bitcoin1 continues to test primary support at 60,000. A breach would warn of another decline, signaling a hard swing in financial markets away from risk assets.
The S&P 500 is in its fourth week of a mild sell-off, with declining Trend Index peaks indicating secondary selling pressure. A retracement to test support at 7000 is likely.
10-year Treasury yields are retracing for another test of support at 4.25% as lower oil prices ease inflation fears.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar is strengthening in expectation of higher short-term interest rates, but new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has yet to reveal his hand.
Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce as the Dollar strengthens.
Copper & Lithium
Energy metals are also experiencing a sell-off, with Copper and Lithium most prominent.
Sprott Copper Miners ETF2 (COPP) is headed for a test of primary support at 32, while Trend Index peaks below zero warn of long-term selling pressure.
Sprott Lithium Miners ETF2 (LITP) is testing secondary support at 13. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of growing selling pressure, and a breach of support will likely test the primary level at 11.
Conclusion
The Dollar is strengthening amid expectations of higher short-term interest rates under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. But Warsh has yet to reveal his hand, and long-term Treasury yields are softening as fears of high inflation from spiking energy prices fade.
The ceasefire in the Persian Gulf is tenuous and could easily be disrupted by a flare-up of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Stability in the region is even further out of reach than it was before 28 February and will likely remain so. States will likely build up larger strategic reserves and develop strategies to reduce their exposure to another closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This includes encouraging the use of electric vehicles and nuclear energy, two industries that we expect to be long-term beneficiaries from the conflict.
The biggest losers will likely be the Gulf States and Israel. The Gulf States have suffered an enormous setback in their ability to project themselves as a stable financial and industrial hub for future development. They will fall under Iran’s shadow, which will be able to exert far greater political sway in the region. Israel is also likely to suffer under whatever peace deal President Trump negotiates, with a financially stronger Iran able to extend its influence in the region and unlikely to be deterred from its long-term aims of regional hegemony.
Gold and commodities are falling as the Dollar strengthens, but we are convinced that this runs counter to the secular trend, which will likely last for decades. Increased fiscal spending and growing deficits will accelerate the debasement of the Dollar and other fiat currencies, with central banks continuing their shift to Gold bullion as the primary reserve asset.
Acknowledgments
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin
- Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
- CNBC: Brent Crude ICE Aug’26 Futures
- Reuters: US-Iran deal may leave Netanyahu as biggest casualty
- Reuters: Trump, Republican senator engage in shouting match over Iran war
- HFI Research: Parex Resources, High Torque Oil Leverage At A Double-Digit Yield
Notes
- Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
- We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
A Lull in Hostilities
Key Points
- Hostilities in Lebanon faded.
- Tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased.
- Brent Crude futures fell to $77.64 per barrel.
- 2-year Treasury yields rose above 4.20% amid expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy.
Brent Crude futures (Aug’26) fell to $77.64 per barrel on reports of a lull in hostilities in Lebanon.
Prices fell more than 3% on Monday after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, and as officials reported a lull in hostilities in Lebanon under the broader agreement.
“The gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the market,” said ING analysts in a note.
Two crude tankers with just under 2 million barrels of oil sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, ship-tracking data showed, in a sign that traffic was picking up following weaker flows on Sunday due to concerns over passage through the waterway. (Reuters)
The text of the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran can be separated into two parts. The MOU is mostly “talks about talks” where the parties merely agree to negotiate the terms of a Final Deal, but it contains an agreement to cease hostilities while negotiations take place, including:
- Immediate termination of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
- Ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
- The US to lift its blockade of Iranian shipping.
- The US to waive existing sanctions against Iranian crude oil and petroleum exports.
- The US to release frozen or restricted funds and assets belonging to Iran.
- Iran will make its “best efforts” to ensure the safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The MOU offers Iran a financial reward in exchange for allowing safe passage through the Strait. The deal is tenuous, and already the IRGC has threatened to close the Strait due to ongoing hostilities in Lebanon.
Israel is not a signatory to the MOU, and will not readily agree to the first two terms if it feels that they compromise their national defense. The Gulf States are also not signatories, and will similarly defend their national interests.
Financial Markets
2-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.209%, more than 45 basis points above the Fed funds target range, in expectation of tighter Fed monetary policy.
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index below -0.50 continues to signal easy monetary conditions.
Bitcoin1 is testing primary support at 60,000, signaling a shift in financial markets to risk-off. A breach of support would warn of a market-wide contraction.
Treasury Markets
10-year Treasury yields firmed to 4.51%, suggesting another test of resistance at 4.75%.
Stocks
SpaceX retreated to test its June 12 opening price of 150.
The Magnificent 7 also lost ground, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) retreating below support at 68 on the weekly chart below. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of a correction.
The S&P 500 also shows signs of secondary selling pressure.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar strengthened amid expectations of higher short-term interest rates. Breakout of the US Dollar Index above 100.50 indicates an advance to 103, but first expect retracement to test support at 100.
Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce, with declining Trend Index peaks warning of selling pressure. A breach of $4,000 would indicate another decline, but beware of a bear trap. Gold is in a secular uptrend that we expect to last for decades.
Energy
The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index broke support at 575, signaling a primary downtrend.
Uranium
Sprott Uranium Miners ETF2 (URNM) broke primary support at 58, also signaling a downtrend.
Copper
Copper is testing support at 13,500, and declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. A breach of support would warn of a bull trap, with a decline to test the 50-week moving average.
Sprott Copper Miners ETF2 (COPP) reinforces the bearish copper chart, retreating from resistance between 44 and 45 while Trend Index peaks below zero warn of persistent selling pressure.
Lithium
Sprott Lithium Miners ETF2 (LITP) is also retreating, and a fall below 13 would test primary support at 11.
Critical Minerals
Sprott Critical Materials ETF2 (SETM) shows similar signs of selling pressure, and another test of primary support at 30 is likely.
Conclusion
Brent Crude and oil and gas stocks are falling as the Strait of Hormuz is tentatively reopened, but the real test will be the impact of global strategic reserves. A continued decline would cause a rebound in energy prices.
Financial markets are shedding high-risk assets amid expectations of tighter monetary policy. Declining Trend Index peaks on the S&P 500 signal a correction.
The Dollar is strengthening, and Gold is headed for another test of support at $4,000 per ounce, but these moves run counter to their secular trends where we expect Dollar weakness and Gold strength.
Energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off amid expectations of lower oil and gas prices if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
Uncertainty remains high, and we expect elevated volatility in the months ahead. We adopt a defensive stance, with minimal exposure to high-multiple growth stocks and long-duration financial assets. Value stocks with stable income streams and short-duration financial assets are a haven in times of volatility, but we still expect a secular uptrend in Gold and maintain our position.
Acknowledgments
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin
- Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
- CNBC: Brent Crude ICE Aug’26 Futures
- Reuters: Oil inches down as investors focus on Hormuz flows after peace talks
- NPR: Read the full text of Trump’s preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement to end the war
Notes
- Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
- We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
Bond Market Deja Vu from 2022
Key Points
- Investors are dumping long-term government bonds, with the yield on 30-year Treasuries rising to 5.13%.
- Sovereign bonds across the UK, the EU, and Japan are all affected by the sell-off.
- The S&P 500 and the Dow retreated on Friday by 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.
- Gold and silver fell steeply.
- Copper, Lithium, Critical Materials, and Uranium are also experiencing a sell-off.
- President Trump hinted at another major strike on Iran, with his Sunday “The Clock is Ticking” post on Truth Social.
- Brent futures jumped to above $111 per barrel early Monday.
Investors are dumping long-term government bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield broke resistance at 5.0%, rising to 5.13% on Friday before easing slightly to 5.12% early Monday.
High bond yields, above the rate of inflation, increase the risk of a solvency crisis where the borrower can’t meet its interest payments. Issuing new debt to cover interest payments accelerates debt growth, causing debt-to-GDP to spiral out of control.
UK Gilts 30-year yield jumped to 5.85%.
The French 30-year climbed to 4.67%.
Italian 30-year yields are at 4.75%.
France and Italy have higher debt-to-GDP ratios than the UK. The primary reason they enjoy lower yields is that their long-term yields are suppressed. The Bank of England, on the other hand, is shrinking its balance sheet to restore fiscal stability.
The yield on the 30-year German Bund is even lower because of Germany’s strong fiscal position, with much lower debt levels.
The Japanese 30-year yield is shooting upwards. JGB yields should be much higher because of Japan’s precarious debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the Bank of Japan buys government bonds (JGBs) to suppress the yield and avoid a solvency crisis.
Adding to the selloff on Monday was news that Japan’s government will likely issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion the economic blow from the war, worsening already strained government finances. Yields on the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) jumped more than 10 bps to their highest on record at 4.200% while the 10-year yield touched its highest since October 1996 at 2.800%. (Reuters)
The yield on the 30-year JGB has since weakened slightly to 4.10%.
The chart below, by Robin Brooks, compares long-term government bond yields (on the left axis) to countries’ debt-to-GDP ratios (on the bottom axis). Yields in Japan (JP), Greece (GR), and Italy (IT) are being suppressed, while yields in Australia (AU), New Zealand (NZ), and the UK (GB) are higher due to more conservative central bank policies.
Why are Long-term Yields Rising?
There are several overlapping reasons why long-term yields are rising:
Increased defense spending expands government deficits and raises debt-to-GDP ratios, increasing the risk of fiscal dominance.
Fiscal dominance is where the central bank prioritizes bond market stability over currency stability, lowering interest rates while tolerating higher inflation, to prevent a solvency crisis in the bond market.
The US-Iran conflict has caused oil shortages, driving crude oil prices higher. High oil prices are fueling a steep rise in inflation, increasing the risk of capital erosion for bond investors.
The US Fed has entered into a $100 billion currency swap agreement with the United Arab Emirates. The facility will help the UAE to survive the loss of oil revenues while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Further currency swaps with other Gulf States will likely follow. The currency swaps are effectively a medium-term loan from the Fed, but risk becoming a standing facility if the conflict in the Gulf is not quickly resolved. Their primary purpose is to avoid the Gulf States selling reserves to make up for lost oil revenue. The sell-off of hundreds of billions of US Treasuries would flood the market and drive up yields.
The AI boom has driven a massive surge in capital spending by mega-cap technology companies as they vie for market share in a rapidly expanding market. Much of the capital spending is funded through long-term debt issuance, leading to a steep increase in the supply of high-quality long-term debt.
US-Iran Conflict
President Donald Trump on Sunday again threatened Iran:
“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” (CNBC)
Trump’s post caused a sharp jump in Brent crude futures prices when the market opened on Monday.
Stocks & Financial Markets
The S&P 500 retreated below 7500, falling 1.2% on Friday.
The Dow similarly retreated below 50,000, falling 1.1%. A decline below support at 49,000 would signal a correction.
Bitcoin1 retreated below support at 80,000, warning of further market risk aversion.
10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.6%. The breakout above 4.5% offers a short-term target of 4.75%. Rising Trend Index troughs indicate strong upward pressure on long-term yields.
Dollar & Gold
A Dollar shortage is driving up the US Dollar Index as global markets struggle with crude oil shortages and rising prices, a fiscal crisis among Gulf States that have lost their primary source of revenue, and lower US trade deficits.
The Dollar enjoyed similar strong demand after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, followed by a steep fall in November, when energy markets had stabilized.
Gold is testing support at 4500. A breach of 4400 would signal a test of 4000, but respect of support remains more likely.
In 2022, Gold initially shot up after Russia’s 24 February invasion of Ukraine, but then declined for 6 months until energy markets stabilized and the Dollar weakened.
Silver fell steeply last week and is headed for a test of support at 71.
Energy
Brent crude continues its uptrend, and another test of resistance at $120 per barrel is likely.
The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index respected support at 580, headed for a test of resistance at 620. Trend Index troughs above zero signal buying pressure.
Uranium
Uranium is taking a beating, with the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF2 (URNM) breaking secondary support at 64. A breach of support at 58 would signal a primary downtrend.
Lithium
All strategic materials are under pressure, even Lithium, which has enjoyed strong demand from booming EV sales. Sprott Lithium Miners ETF2 (LITP) broke its new support level at 16.50. Follow through below 15 would signal a correction.
Critical Minerals
Critical materials show similar selling pressure, with Sprott Critical Materials ETF2 (SETM) testing support at 35.50, while a lower Trend Index peak warns of selling pressure.
Copper
Copper retreated below 14,000 after a strong run-up.
Sprott Copper Miners ETF2 (COPP) reflects similar selling pressure, breaking initial support at 42, while a lower Trend Index peak signals selling pressure.
Conclusion
We expect a similar playbook to 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: rising energy prices, followed by rising long-term bond prices, and a stronger Dollar.
The S&P 500 suffered a 26% drawdown in 2022, and stock prices will likely weaken, though partly cushioned by the AI boom. We also expect weakness in Gold, Silver, and strategic materials like Uranium, Lithium, Critical Minerals, and Copper — until energy markets stabilize.
Acknowledgments
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin
- Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
- CNBC: Brent Crude ICE May’26 Futures
- CNBC: Government Bond Yields
Notes
- Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
- We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
Xi Has Trump Over a Barrel
Key Points
- Producer prices jumped by 6.0% over the 12 months to April, warning of higher consumer prices ahead.
- 10-year Treasury yields responded with a rise to 4.48%.
- Xi Jinping has the upper hand in negotiations with Donald Trump because of China’s large strategic oil reserves, which they could use to keep prices in check.
- The S&P 500 reached a new high at 7444, while the Dow is consolidating in a bullish narrow range below 50,000.
- The Main Street US economy is under the pump, but Semiconductors, Construction, and Heavy Electrical industries are booming due to datacenter spending.
- Lithium, Copper, and Critical Materials show signs of buying pressure, but Uranium is lagging.
Producer prices jumped by 6.0% for the 12 months to April 2026, driven by rising fuel prices and transportation costs. The cost of rising fuel prices is spreading through the economy, with the core index (excluding food and energy) leaping to 5.2%. The chart below shows the impact of energy shortages on producer prices after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. We expect the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure to be more severe.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
Silver and Lithium Shine
Key Points
- Silver broke through resistance at $80 per ounce, signaling a fresh advance.
- Gold remains rangebound.
- Oil & Gas stocks are weak, while crack spreads are widening.
- Copper, Uranium, and Critical Materials show signs of buying pressure, following the Lithium breakout.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
S&P 500 Rallies on Job Gains, But Peace Deal Hopes Crash
Key Points
- President Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal.
- Iran continued attacks on its Gulf neighbors.
- Brent crude July futures jump to $104.50 per barrel.
- Confidential intelligence sources say that Iran can survive a US blockade for at least 3-4 months.
- The US labor market added 115,000 jobs in April 2026, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%.
- The S&P 500 reached a new high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average threatens a breakout.
DUBAI/WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected Iran’s response to a US proposal for peace talks, dashing hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict….
“I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, without giving further detail. Oil prices rose $3 a barrel after the United States and Iran failed to reach agreement.
Iran’s proposal includes a demand for compensation for war damages and an emphasis on Iranian sovereignty over the strait, state media said. It also calls on the US to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and end a US ban on Iranian oil sales, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said.
Brent Crude July’26 (Nymex) futures jumped to $104.50 per barrel while December’26 futures (orange) rallied to $89.25 per barrel. December prices reflect the oil market’s longer-term assessment of crude shortages. Damage to existing production and shipping facilities will take time to repair, even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
If you are not a subscriber, to find out more click here
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
Trump Talks “Peace Deal” But Nothing Stops This Train
Key Points
- President Trump again baits financial markets with the prospect of a peace agreement.
- Brent Crude (July’26 futures) is testing support at $100 per barrel.
- However, the crude market faces critical shortages even if a peace deal is signed.
- The S&P 500 rallied to a new high at 7365, while the Dow threatens a breakout above 50,000.
- The ISM Services PMI warns that growth is slowing, while soaring prices signal inflationary pressures.
- Lithium is in a strong uptrend, while Copper, Critical Materials, and Uranium show signs of a recovery.
- The RBA hiked rates this week and would like to hold for a while, but rising prices may force further hikes.
ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON/TEL AVIV, May 7 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump predicted a swift end to the war with Iran as Tehran considered a U.S. peace proposal that sources said would formally end the conflict while leaving unresolved key U.S. demands that Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson cited by Iran’s ISNA news agency said Tehran would convey its response, while Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for parliament’s powerful foreign policy and national security committee, described the proposal as “more of an American wish-list than a reality.”
“They want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday, saying later “it’ll be over quickly.”
Trump has repeatedly played up the prospect of an agreement to end the war that started on February 28, so far without success. The two sides remain at odds over a variety of difficult issues, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its control of the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war handled one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply.
A Pakistani source and another source briefed on the mediation said an agreement was close on a one-page memorandum that would formally end the conflict. That would kick off discussions to unblock shipping through the strait, lift U.S. sanctions on Iran and set curbs on Iran’s nuclear program, the sources said.
A separate senior Pakistani official involved in the talks told Reuters on Thursday that negotiators were hopeful of reaching a deal but noted gaps between the sides remained.
Brent Crude (July futures), buoyed by optimism over a prospective peace deal, is retracing to test support at $100 per barrel.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
S&P 500 Uptrend Against Gold
Key Points
- The S&P 500 index made a new high at 7230, reversing its long-term downtrend against Gold.
- However, the Dow is struggling to break resistance at 50,000.
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates the sector is expanding, but producer prices are soaring.
- Lithium is in a strong uptrend, while Copper remains rangebound.
- Japanese intervention to support the Yen underlines the long-term reason for buying Gold.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
Dire Straits
Key Points
- Brent crude futures are trading below $100 per barrel, as President Trump says Iran wants to “work a deal.”
- However, the physical market shows signs of distress, with Forties Blend close to $149 per barrel on Monday.
- The “genie is out of the bottle,” and the Gulf states are unlikely to settle for a deal that leaves Iran with the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
- A US blockade of Iranian ports could escalate tensions with China.
- Lithium miners jumped on sharp increases in EV sales in Europe and other countries that saw steep increases in energy prices.
[Content protected for Premium, Australian Growth, International Growth, Market Analysis members only] ….. If you are already a subscriber, please login to continue reading:
If you are not a subscriber, to find out more click here
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.