Category: Gold & Commodities

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A Lull in Hostilities

Key Points

  • Hostilities in Lebanon faded.
  • Tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased.
  • Brent Crude futures fell to $77.64 per barrel.
  • 2-year Treasury yields rose above 4.20% amid expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy.

Brent Crude futures (Aug’26) fell to $77.64 per barrel on reports of a lull in hostilities in Lebanon.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE August'26)

Prices fell more than 3% on Monday after ​the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, ​and as officials reported a lull in hostilities in Lebanon under the ⁠broader agreement.

“The gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh ​on the market,” said ING analysts in a note.

Two crude tankers with just under 2 ​million barrels of oil sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, ship-tracking data showed, in a sign that traffic was picking up following weaker flows on Sunday due to concerns over passage through the ​waterway. (Reuters)

The text of the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran can be separated into two parts. The MOU is mostly “talks about talks” where the parties merely agree to negotiate the terms of a Final Deal, but it contains an agreement to cease hostilities while negotiations take place, including:

  • Immediate termination of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
  • Ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
  • The US to lift its blockade of Iranian shipping.
  • The US to waive existing sanctions against Iranian crude oil and petroleum exports.
  • The US to release frozen or restricted funds and assets belonging to Iran.
  • Iran will make its “best efforts” to ensure the safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The MOU offers Iran a financial reward in exchange for allowing safe passage through the Strait. The deal is tenuous, and already the IRGC has threatened to close the Strait due to ongoing hostilities in Lebanon.

Israel is not a signatory to the MOU, and will not readily agree to the first two terms if it feels that they compromise their national defense. The Gulf States are also not signatories, and will similarly defend their national interests.

Financial Markets

2-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.209%, more than 45 basis points above the Fed funds target range, in expectation of tighter Fed monetary policy.

2-Year Treasury Yield (CNBC)

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index below -0.50 continues to signal easy monetary conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin1 is testing primary support at 60,000, signaling a shift in financial markets to risk-off. A breach of support would warn of a market-wide contraction.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

10-year Treasury yields firmed to 4.51%, suggesting another test of resistance at 4.75%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Stocks

SpaceX retreated to test its June 12 opening price of 150.

SpaceX

The Magnificent 7 also lost ground, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) retreating below support at 68 on the weekly chart below. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of a correction.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

The S&P 500 also shows signs of secondary selling pressure.

S&P 500

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar strengthened amid expectations of higher short-term interest rates. Breakout of the US Dollar Index above 100.50 indicates an advance to 103, but first expect retracement to test support at 100.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce, with declining Trend Index peaks warning of selling pressure. A breach of $4,000 would indicate another decline, but beware of a bear trap. Gold is in a secular uptrend that we expect to last for decades.

Spot Gold

Energy

The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index broke support at 575, signaling a primary downtrend.

Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index

Uranium

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF2 (URNM) broke primary support at 58, also signaling a downtrend.

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)

Copper

Copper is testing support at 13,500, and declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. A breach of support would warn of a bull trap, with a decline to test the 50-week moving average.

Copper

Sprott Copper Miners ETF2 (COPP) reinforces the bearish copper chart, retreating from resistance between 44 and 45 while Trend Index peaks below zero warn of persistent selling pressure.

Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)

Lithium

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF2 (LITP) is also retreating, and a fall below 13 would test primary support at 11.

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)

Critical Minerals

Sprott Critical Materials ETF2 (SETM) shows similar signs of selling pressure, and another test of primary support at 30 is likely.

Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)

Conclusion

Brent Crude and oil and gas stocks are falling as the Strait of Hormuz is tentatively reopened, but the real test will be the impact of global strategic reserves. A continued decline would cause a rebound in energy prices.

Financial markets are shedding high-risk assets amid expectations of tighter monetary policy. Declining Trend Index peaks on the S&P 500 signal a correction.

The Dollar is strengthening, and Gold is headed for another test of support at $4,000 per ounce, but these moves run counter to their secular trends where we expect Dollar weakness and Gold strength.

Energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off amid expectations of lower oil and gas prices if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Uncertainty remains high, and we expect elevated volatility in the months ahead. We adopt a defensive stance, with minimal exposure to high-multiple growth stocks and long-duration financial assets. Value stocks with stable income streams and short-duration financial assets are a haven in times of volatility, but we still expect a secular uptrend in Gold and maintain our position.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
  2. We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.
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PPI Shock But Optimism Over Rate Cut Grows

Key Points

  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) grew by 1.06% in May, for the second straight month, at an annualized rate of 12.7%.
  • Annual PPI growth rose to 6.4%.
  • Bank credit growing faster than real GDP reflects rising inflationary pressure.
  • Bitcoin continues to test support at 60,000, signaling risk-off across financial markets.
  • Stocks and Gold are rising as optimism over a peace deal grows.

The monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) grew 1.06% in May, matching the April figure, with an annualized rate of 12.7%.

Producer Price Index (PPI) - Monthly

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Markets in Risk-Off Despite High Stock Prices

Key Points

  • Bitcoin tests support at 70,000, signaling risk-off.
  • Stocks continue their uptrend.
  • Consumers continue to spend, but the falling saving rate suggests they are under pressure.
  • Manufacturers are building inventories ahead of expected price rises and supply chain disruptions.

Bitcoin1 is testing support at 70,000. The steep downtrend warns that financial markets are increasingly risk-averse.

Bitcoin (BTC)

However, indices like the NASDAQ remain in a strong uptrend, with the Invesco QQQ ETF close to our target of 750.

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

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There is No Deal

Key Points

  • President Trump raised hopes that he is about to sign a deal with Iran that will allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Crude prices fell, along with long-term Treasury yields.
  • The US economy is slowing, with real GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter.
  • Real personal income per capita declined for the third straight month.
  • Personal savings plunged, warning of a recession.

Brent crude is testing support at $90 per barrel on news of an “imminent deal” with Iran.

Brent Crude

Every time the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.5%, Axios runs a headline citing sources close to the President saying he is close to a deal. Crude oil futures plunge, but the deal never materializes.

WASHINGTON/CAIRO, May 28 (Reuters) – The United States and Iran reached ​an agreement on Thursday to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters, though U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to approve ‌it and Iranian state media said it had not been finalized.

According to four sources familiar with the matter, the agreement would extend the truce for another 60 days and allow traffic to flow through the strategic waterway while negotiators tackle difficult issues such as Iran’s nuclear program.

Trump has not yet approved the deal, the sources said. Iran has yet to comment on news of the proposed ​deal, which was first reported by Axios.

Ignore the BS and focus on the bottom line. There is no deal until an agreement is signed — and adhered to by all parties, including Bibi Netanyahu.

US Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by another 9 million barrels in the week ending May 22.

EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed at the end of June, crude oil markets will panic over looming shortages.
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No Happy Ending

Key Points

  • US forces carried out what the Pentagon called “defensive” strikes on missile launch sites and minelaying boats in southern Iran on Monday.
  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliated with a drone attack on a US airbase on Thursday.
  • Brent crude rallies to $96.60 per barrel.
  • President Trump insists a deal is within reach.
  • Trump allies have voiced opposition to the proposed deal, which they say favors Iran.
  • Trump says he can outwait Iran and that Iranian leaders had miscalculated if they thought ‌the November midterm elections would force him into a deal.
  • Gold and silver fall as prospects for a peace deal fade.

DUBAI/WASHINGTON, May 28 (Reuters) – Iran’s Revolutionary Guard targeted a U.S. airbase on Thursday after the U.S. military carried out what a Washington official said were strikes on an Iranian drone operation near ‌the Strait of Hormuz….

The U.S. official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about military operations, told Reuters the military shot down four Iranian attack drones and struck a ground control station ​in the port city of Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone.

“These actions were measured, purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire,” the official said.

The Islamic ​Revolutionary Guard Corps said it targeted a U.S. base in response to what it described as an early morning U.S. attack near Bandar Abbas airport, ⁠Tasnim news agency reported. The IRGC said it targeted the U.S. airbase from which the attack on the control station near Bandar Abbas was launched, without identifying the base.

Brent crude (July’26 futures) rallied to $96.60 on news of the air strikes.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE July'26)

Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at a trickle.

Oil Tanker Transits Through the Strait of Hormuz

For those hoping the end of the price surge is near, Sultan Al Jaber, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), has disappointing news.

“Even if this conflict [with Iran] ends tomorrow,” he said today at an Atlantic Council event, “full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.”

US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) are shrinking, falling from 415 million barrels to 374 million over the past 6 weeks.

Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)

The emerging deal puts off many critical issues to be resolved later and has already exposed the Republican president to fierce criticism — even from some of his own supporters — that Iran’s hardline leaders will emerge from the conflict battered but emboldened. It all comes to a head just as the midterm elections to determine control of Congress come into focus and as Republicans worry that rising costs and fuel prices are darkening the American electorate’s mood.

But Trump on Wednesday dismissed the idea that the upcoming elections would shape his Iran strategy.

“They thought they were gonna outwait me. You know, ‘We’ll outwait him. He’s got the midterms,'” Trump said. “I don’t care about the midterms.”

….The president is also facing scrutiny from Republican allies, including Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Ted Cruz of Texas, who have said the terms seem too favorable to Tehran.

They’re balking at aspects of the deal that have emerged publicly that they say too closely resemble the nuclear agreement reached with Iran by Democratic President Barack Obama, which Trump scrapped during his first term.(NPR)

Trump faces the risk that higher crude prices cause a similar inflation spike to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, resulting in a wipeout at the November midterms.

Brent Crude & CPI

Gold & Silver

Gold and silver face increased selling pressure as the sudden drop in oil export revenues forces Gulf States to liquidate reserves, including bullion. High oil prices have also forced Turkiye to enter into an $80 billion gold swap to cover higher import costs without crashing the already-weak Turkish Lira. Russia, for different reasons, is also liquidating gold reserves to help fund its war with Ukraine.

Gold broke support at $4,500 per ounce, signaling a likely test of support at $4,000.

Spot Gold

Silver has retraced similarly, and a break below $70 per barrel would signal another test of primary support at $60. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of continued selling pressure.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

The US war with Iran — and negotiations — will likely continue for months, if not years. Crude oil shortages and high prices are expected to cause an inflation spike ahead of the US midterm elections, resulting in a Republican wipeout in November.

We remain bullish on the long-term outlook for gold and silver, but their current weakness will likely persist until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil prices fall.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

Bipolar Disorder

Key Points

  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a new record low since the series started in 1960.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through resistance at 50,000, confirming a fresh bull market advance.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a new low of 44.8.

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

A plot of the 3-month moving average since 1960, when the Consumer Sentiment series started, shows that consumer sentiment is at a record low.

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

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Bond Market Deja Vu from 2022

Key Points

  • Investors are dumping long-term government bonds, with the yield on 30-year Treasuries rising to 5.13%.
  • Sovereign bonds across the UK, the EU, and Japan are all affected by the sell-off.
  • The S&P 500 and the Dow retreated on Friday by 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.
  • Gold and silver fell steeply.
  • Copper, Lithium, Critical Materials, and Uranium are also experiencing a sell-off.
  • President Trump hinted at another major strike on Iran, with his Sunday “The Clock is Ticking” post on Truth Social.
  • Brent futures jumped to above $111 per barrel early Monday.

Investors are dumping long-term government bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield broke resistance at 5.0%, rising to 5.13% on Friday before easing slightly to 5.12% early Monday.

30-Year Treasury Yield

High bond yields, above the rate of inflation, increase the risk of a solvency crisis where the borrower can’t meet its interest payments. Issuing new debt to cover interest payments accelerates debt growth, causing debt-to-GDP to spiral out of control.

UK Gilts 30-year yield jumped to 5.85%.

30-Year UK Gilts Yield

The French 30-year climbed to 4.67%.

30-Year UK Gilts Yield

Italian 30-year yields are at 4.75%.

30-Year UK Gilts Yield

France and Italy have higher debt-to-GDP ratios than the UK. The primary reason they enjoy lower yields is that their long-term yields are suppressed. The Bank of England, on the other hand, is shrinking its balance sheet to restore fiscal stability.

The yield on the 30-year German Bund is even lower because of Germany’s strong fiscal position, with much lower debt levels.

30-Year German Bund Yield

The Japanese 30-year yield is shooting upwards. JGB yields should be much higher because of Japan’s precarious debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the Bank of Japan buys government bonds (JGBs) to suppress the yield and avoid a solvency crisis.

Adding to the selloff on Monday was news that Japan’s government will likely issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion the economic blow from the war, worsening already strained government finances. Yields on ​the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) jumped more than 10 bps to their highest on record at 4.200% while the 10-year yield touched its highest since October 1996 ​at 2.800%. (Reuters)

The yield on the 30-year JGB has since weakened slightly to 4.10%.

30-Year JGB Yield

The chart below, by Robin Brooks, compares long-term government bond yields (on the left axis) to countries’ debt-to-GDP ratios (on the bottom axis). Yields in Japan (JP), Greece (GR), and Italy (IT) are being suppressed, while yields in Australia (AU), New Zealand (NZ), and the UK (GB) are higher due to more conservative central bank policies.

JGB Yield & Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Why are Long-term Yields Rising?

There are several overlapping reasons why long-term yields are rising:

Increased defense spending expands government deficits and raises debt-to-GDP ratios, increasing the risk of fiscal dominance.

Fiscal dominance is where the central bank prioritizes bond market stability over currency stability, lowering interest rates while tolerating higher inflation, to prevent a solvency crisis in the bond market.

The US-Iran conflict has caused oil shortages, driving crude oil prices higher. High oil prices are fueling a steep rise in inflation, increasing the risk of capital erosion for bond investors.

The US Fed has entered into a $100 billion currency swap agreement with the United Arab Emirates. The facility will help the UAE to survive the loss of oil revenues while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Further currency swaps with other Gulf States will likely follow. The currency swaps are effectively a medium-term loan from the Fed, but risk becoming a standing facility if the conflict in the Gulf is not quickly resolved. Their primary purpose is to avoid the Gulf States selling reserves to make up for lost oil revenue. The sell-off of hundreds of billions of US Treasuries would flood the market and drive up yields.

The AI boom has driven a massive surge in capital spending by mega-cap technology companies as they vie for market share in a rapidly expanding market. Much of the capital spending is funded through long-term debt issuance, leading to a steep increase in the supply of high-quality long-term debt.

US-Iran Conflict

President Donald Trump on Sunday again threatened Iran:

“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” (CNBC)

Trump’s post caused a sharp jump in Brent crude futures prices when the market opened on Monday.
Brent Crude Futures (ICE July'26)

Stocks & Financial Markets

The S&P 500 retreated below 7500, falling 1.2% on Friday.

S&P 500

The Dow similarly retreated below 50,000, falling 1.1%. A decline below support at 49,000 would signal a correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Bitcoin1 retreated below support at 80,000, warning of further market risk aversion.

Bitcoin (BTC)

10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.6%. The breakout above 4.5% offers a short-term target of 4.75%. Rising Trend Index troughs indicate strong upward pressure on long-term yields.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

A Dollar shortage is driving up the US Dollar Index as global markets struggle with crude oil shortages and rising prices, a fiscal crisis among Gulf States that have lost their primary source of revenue, and lower US trade deficits.

Dollar Index

The Dollar enjoyed similar strong demand after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, followed by a steep fall in November, when energy markets had stabilized.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing support at 4500. A breach of 4400 would signal a test of 4000, but respect of support remains more likely.

Spot Gold

In 2022, Gold initially shot up after Russia’s 24 February invasion of Ukraine, but then declined for 6 months until energy markets stabilized and the Dollar weakened.

Spot Gold

Silver fell steeply last week and is headed for a test of support at 71.

Spot Silver

Energy

Brent crude continues its uptrend, and another test of resistance at $120 per barrel is likely.

Brent Crude

The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index respected support at 580, headed for a test of resistance at 620. Trend Index troughs above zero signal buying pressure.

Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index

Uranium

Uranium is taking a beating, with the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF2 (URNM) breaking secondary support at 64. A breach of support at 58 would signal a primary downtrend.

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)

Lithium

All strategic materials are under pressure, even Lithium, which has enjoyed strong demand from booming EV sales. Sprott Lithium Miners ETF2 (LITP) broke its new support level at 16.50. Follow through below 15 would signal a correction.

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)

Critical Minerals

Critical materials show similar selling pressure, with Sprott Critical Materials ETF2 (SETM) testing support at 35.50, while a lower Trend Index peak warns of selling pressure.

Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)

Copper

Copper retreated below 14,000 after a strong run-up.

Copper

Sprott Copper Miners ETF2 (COPP) reflects similar selling pressure, breaking initial support at 42, while a lower Trend Index peak signals selling pressure.

Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)

Conclusion

We expect a similar playbook to 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: rising energy prices, followed by rising long-term bond prices, and a stronger Dollar.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 suffered a 26% drawdown in 2022, and stock prices will likely weaken, though partly cushioned by the AI boom. We also expect weakness in Gold, Silver, and strategic materials like Uranium, Lithium, Critical Minerals, and Copper — until energy markets stabilize.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
  2. We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.
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Xi Has Trump Over a Barrel

Key Points

  • Producer prices jumped by 6.0% over the 12 months to April, warning of higher consumer prices ahead.
  • 10-year Treasury yields responded with a rise to 4.48%.
  • Xi Jinping has the upper hand in negotiations with Donald Trump because of China’s large strategic oil reserves, which they could use to keep prices in check.
  • The S&P 500 reached a new high at 7444, while the Dow is consolidating in a bullish narrow range below 50,000.
  • The Main Street US economy is under the pump, but Semiconductors, Construction, and Heavy Electrical industries are booming due to datacenter spending.
  • Lithium, Copper, and Critical Materials show signs of buying pressure, but Uranium is lagging.

Producer prices jumped by 6.0% for the 12 months to April 2026, driven by rising fuel prices and transportation costs. The cost of rising fuel prices is spreading through the economy, with the core index (excluding food and energy) leaping to 5.2%. The chart below shows the impact of energy shortages on producer prices after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. We expect the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure to be more severe.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

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CPI Jump to 3.8% Spooks Bond Market

Key Points

  • Headline CPI jumped to 3.8% in April in response to rising energy prices.
  • We expect Food CPI to jump sharply as rising costs pass through the supply chain over the next few months.
  • 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.46%, a bearish sign for stocks, but the Dow continues to test resistance at 50,000.
  • The silver breakout above $80 per ounce continues.
  • Surplus Gold and silver inventories in the US have been depleted, which will likely increase upward pressure on prices when the Persian Gulf crisis is resolved.

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 3.8% for the 12 months to April 2026, up from 3.3% in March. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased more gradually to 2.7% in April, up from 2.6% in the previous month.

CPI & Core CPI - Annual

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Silver and Lithium Shine

Key Points

  • Silver broke through resistance at $80 per ounce, signaling a fresh advance.
  • Gold remains rangebound.
  • Oil & Gas stocks are weak, while crack spreads are widening.
  • Copper, Uranium, and Critical Materials show signs of buying pressure, following the Lithium breakout.
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