US Dollar Index Archives - Page 31 of 34

March 14, 2012

Gold falls as the Dollar rises

The US Dollar Index broke resistance at 80 on the Weekly chart, signaling an advance to 82. The Index is already in a primary up-trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero. Breakout above 82 would offer a target of 86*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold followed through below last week’s low, indicating a correction to test primary support at 1500. Respect of the long-term rising trendline would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, but reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero for a second time warns of a down-trend. Target for a down-trend would be 1200 to 1400*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1600 – ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 1400

The Hourly chart shows short-term support at 1635 and resistance at 1650. Failure of support would test 1600, while upward breakout from the trend channel would signal retracement to test the new resistance level.
Spot Gold

March 1, 2012

Gold falls as Fed gives no signs of new stimulus | Marketscope | Investing | Financial Post

The dollar rebounded after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in congressional testimony, gave no signal that the central bank is considering additional measures to spur the economy. He said the inflation outlook is “subdued.” The greenback gained as much as 0.5 percent against a basket of competing currencies.

via Gold falls as Fed gives no signs of new stimulus | Marketscope | Investing | Financial Post.

March 1, 2012

Gold encounters resistance as Dollar finds support

Spot gold ran into resistance at $1800/ounce and is testing medium-term support at $1700. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend but we will not have confirmation until there is a clear break through $1800.

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

The Dollar Index is conversely testing support at 78.00. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum may be slowing but the dollar remains in a primary up-trend. Respect of support would signal continuation — and weaker demand for gold.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

February 22, 2012

Gold tests $1800/ounce

Spot gold is testing resistance at $1800/ounce on the weekly chart after completing a small flag to signal continuation of the up-trend. Breakout would signal a primary advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + (1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

The US Dollar Index remains weak as inflation expectations rise. Failure of medium-term support at 78.50 would warn of trend weakness, while recovery above 80.00 would indicate trend strength. Target for a breakout above 81.50 would be 85.00*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

February 16, 2012

Gold hesitates on dollar strength

Spot gold displays a small flag consolidation, suggesting continuation of the advance to test $1800/ounce. Breach of the descending trendline indicates that the down-trend has ended and breakout above $1800 would signal an advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal. A strengthening dollar, however, would weaken demand for gold.
Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

The US Dollar Index found support above 78. Recovery above 80 would indicate another test of resistance at 82. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong up-trend. Breakout above 82 would confirm the target of 85*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

February 9, 2012

Gold up-trend not yet confirmed

Spot gold is consolidating below resistance at $1800. Until we have a breakout there is no confirmation that gold has started a new up-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn indicate weakness.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 -1500 ) = 2100

US Dollar Index continues to decline, boosting gold and commodities. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm the primary up-trend — as would a trough on 63-day Twiggs Momentum that finishes above the zero line.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

February 8, 2012

Peter Schiff Speaks to James Rickards, Author of Currency Wars | Peter Schiff | Safehaven.com

James Rickards: The dollar is not necessarily on the road to ruin, but that outcome does seem highly likely at the moment. There is still time to pull back from the brink, but it requires a specific set of policies: breaking up big banks, banning derivatives, raising interest rates to make the US a magnet for capital, cutting government spending, eliminating capital gains and corporate income taxes, going to a personal flat tax, and reducing regulation on job-creating businesses. However, the likelihood of these policies being put in place seems remote – so the dollar collapse scenario must be considered.

via Peter Schiff Speaks to James Rickards, Author of Currency Wars | Peter Schiff | Safehaven.com.

February 2, 2012

Gold rallies as dollar weakens

Spot gold is headed for a test of resistance at $1800 after breaching the descending trendline on the weekly chart, indicating that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1800 would complete a double bottom reversal, with a target of $2100*. Respect of $1800 remains as likely, however, and would indicate another test of primary support at $1500.

Index

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

The Dollar Index is weakening in anticipation of QE3 ahead of the November 2012 elections. The primary trend remains upward, though breach of the rising trendline, and/or reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, would warn that a top is forming.

Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

January 25, 2012

Gold & Commodities: Copper breakout as dollar weakens

The US Dollar Index has retraced to test medium-term support at 79.50. Respect would confirm a strong primary up-trend, while failure would suggest trend weakness. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero still indicates a primary up-trend, but breach of the rising trendline warns that the up-trend is slowing. A weakening dollar is likely to cause stronger commodity prices.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

The weekly chart shows spot gold testing its descending trendline. Respect would indicate another test of primary support at $1500/ounce, while breakout would suggest that a bottom is forming. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would complete an iceberg pattern, warning of a primary down-trend. The bull-trend of the last few years was driven by quantitative easing (QE1 and QE2) from the Fed. We are unlikely to see another bull-trend without QE3.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1600 – ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 1400

Copper broke through resistance at $8000/tonne, completing a higher trough and signaling a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. The primary up-trend in this bellwether commodity suggests an economic recovery is under way.

Copper A Grade

* Target calculation: 8000 + ( 8000 – 7200 ) = 8800

The broader CRB Commodities Index, however, lags behind. Breach of the descending trendline indicates a base is forming, but only recovery above 325 would signal a primary up-trend. Cross-over of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

CRB Commodities Index

Brent crude is also forming a base, after breaching its descending trendline. Breakout above 115 would signal the start of a primary up-trend.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 115 + ( 115 – 105 ) = 125

January 19, 2012

Dollar tests support while gold hints at new base

The US Dollar Index retraced to test support at 79.50/80.00. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, signaling an advance to 85.00*.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

Spot Gold is testing resistance at $1700 and the descending trendline. Breakout would indicate that the down-trend has ended and the metal is forming a base.

Spot Gold

Commodities also appear to be forming a base, with the CRB Commodities Index testing resistance at 315 after piercing the descending trendline. Recovery above 325 would complete a double-bottom reversal. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above the zero line would also be a bullish sign.

CRB Commodities Index