The US Dollar Index $DXY_us.
The dollar rebounded after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in congressional testimony, gave no signal that the central bank is considering additional measures to spur the economy. He said the inflation outlook is “subdued.” The greenback gained as much as 0.5 percent against a basket of competing currencies.
via Gold falls as Fed gives no signs of new stimulus | Marketscope | Investing | Financial Post.
Spot gold ran into resistance at $1800/ounce and is testing medium-term support at $1700. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend but we will not have confirmation until there is a clear break through $1800.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100
The Dollar Index is conversely testing support at 78.00. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum may be slowing but the dollar remains in a primary up-trend. Respect of support would signal continuation — and weaker demand for gold.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Spot gold is testing resistance at $1800/ounce on the weekly chart after completing a small flag to signal continuation of the up-trend. Breakout would signal a primary advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1800 + (1800 – 1500 ) = 2100
The US Dollar Index remains weak as inflation expectations rise. Failure of medium-term support at 78.50 would warn of trend weakness, while recovery above 80.00 would indicate trend strength. Target for a breakout above 81.50 would be 85.00*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Spot gold displays a small flag consolidation, suggesting continuation of the advance to test $1800/ounce. Breach of the descending trendline indicates that the down-trend has ended and breakout above $1800 would signal an advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal. A strengthening dollar, however, would weaken demand for gold.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100
The US Dollar Index found support above 78. Recovery above 80 would indicate another test of resistance at 82. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong up-trend. Breakout above 82 would confirm the target of 85*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Spot gold is consolidating below resistance at $1800. Until we have a breakout there is no confirmation that gold has started a new up-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn indicate weakness.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 -1500 ) = 2100
US Dollar Index continues to decline, boosting gold and commodities. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm the primary up-trend — as would a trough on 63-day Twiggs Momentum that finishes above the zero line.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
James Rickards: The dollar is not necessarily on the road to ruin, but that outcome does seem highly likely at the moment. There is still time to pull back from the brink, but it requires a specific set of policies: breaking up big banks, banning derivatives, raising interest rates to make the US a magnet for capital, cutting government spending, eliminating capital gains and corporate income taxes, going to a personal flat tax, and reducing regulation on job-creating businesses. However, the likelihood of these policies being put in place seems remote – so the dollar collapse scenario must be considered.
via Peter Schiff Speaks to James Rickards, Author of Currency Wars | Peter Schiff | Safehaven.com.
Spot gold is headed for a test of resistance at $1800 after breaching the descending trendline on the weekly chart, indicating that a bottom is forming. Breakout above $1800 would complete a double bottom reversal, with a target of $2100*. Respect of $1800 remains as likely, however, and would indicate another test of primary support at $1500.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100
The Dollar Index is weakening in anticipation of QE3 ahead of the November 2012 elections. The primary trend remains upward, though breach of the rising trendline, and/or reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, would warn that a top is forming.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
The US Dollar Index has retraced to test medium-term support at 79.50. Respect would confirm a strong primary up-trend, while failure would suggest trend weakness. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero still indicates a primary up-trend, but breach of the rising trendline warns that the up-trend is slowing. A weakening dollar is likely to cause stronger commodity prices.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
The weekly chart shows spot gold testing its descending trendline. Respect would indicate another test of primary support at $1500/ounce, while breakout would suggest that a bottom is forming. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would complete an iceberg pattern, warning of a primary down-trend. The bull-trend of the last few years was driven by quantitative easing (QE1 and QE2) from the Fed. We are unlikely to see another bull-trend without QE3.
* Target calculation: 1600 – ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 1400
Copper broke through resistance at $8000/tonne, completing a higher trough and signaling a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. The primary up-trend in this bellwether commodity suggests an economic recovery is under way.
* Target calculation: 8000 + ( 8000 – 7200 ) = 8800
The broader CRB Commodities Index, however, lags behind. Breach of the descending trendline indicates a base is forming, but only recovery above 325 would signal a primary up-trend. Cross-over of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.
Brent crude is also forming a base, after breaching its descending trendline. Breakout above 115 would signal the start of a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 115 + ( 115 – 105 ) = 125
The US Dollar Index retraced to test support at 79.50/80.00. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, signaling an advance to 85.00*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
Spot Gold is testing resistance at $1700 and the descending trendline. Breakout would indicate that the down-trend has ended and the metal is forming a base.
Commodities also appear to be forming a base, with the CRB Commodities Index testing resistance at 315 after piercing the descending trendline. Recovery above 325 would complete a double-bottom reversal. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above the zero line would also be a bullish sign.
The Dollar Index continues in a primary up-trend after twice successfully testing support at 79.50/80.00. Target for the advance is 85.00*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85
