Forex Archives - Page 54 of 61 - the patient investor

March 8, 2012

Forex: Euro and Yen weaken while Rand recovers

The Euro is retreating to test medium-term support at $1.30 on the weekly chart. Failure would mean a fall to primary support at $1.25/$1.26. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero reinforces the primary down-trend.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.25 – ( 1.35 – 1.25 ) = 1.15

Pound Sterling is ranging between $1.5650 and $1.6000 against the greenback. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of the opposite.

GBPUSD

The dollar respected the new support level at 80 Japanese Yen. Breakout above ¥82 would confirm the primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥85.

USDJPY

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

The Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00 South African Rand. Failure would offer an initial target of R7.50, at the rising trendline. Momentum is falling sharply and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUDZAR

March 8, 2012

Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and commodities

The CRB Commodities Index retreated from resistance at 325. Failure of medium-term support at 310 would signal a test of primary support at 295. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

Lower commodity prices weakened the Aussie Dollar, with a fall below $1.06 warning of a correction to the long-term (green) rising trendline. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains strong, however, and recovery above $1.08 would confirm a primary up-trend.

Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie was helped by rising crude prices and recovery above $1.01 would confirm the primary advance to $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

March 1, 2012

Gold falls as Fed gives no signs of new stimulus | Marketscope | Investing | Financial Post

The dollar rebounded after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in congressional testimony, gave no signal that the central bank is considering additional measures to spur the economy. He said the inflation outlook is “subdued.” The greenback gained as much as 0.5 percent against a basket of competing currencies.

via Gold falls as Fed gives no signs of new stimulus | Marketscope | Investing | Financial Post.

March 1, 2012

Forex: Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and South African Rand

The Aussie and Canadian Dollar mirror the CRB Commodities Index, testing resistance at their long-term highs. The Aussie encountered resistance at $1.08. Breakout would confirm a primary up-trend — already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

Canada’s Loonie is similarly testing resistance at $1.01. Breakout would offer a target of $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The South African Rand is fairing slightly better, with the Aussie testing medium-term support at R8.00. Failure would warn of a correction to the long-term rising trendline at R7.50.

South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

March 1, 2012

Forex: Europe and Japan

The Euro is in a primary down-trend despite the latest rally, headed for a test of the descending trendline. Expect retracement to test support at $1.32; breach of $1.30 would warn of another test of primary support (at $1.26).

Euro/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

Pound Sterling broke its descending trendline several weeks ago and is headed for a test of resistance at $1.62. Upward breakout is unlikely at present, but recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would be a bullish sign.

Pound Sterling/USD

The US Dollar is retracing to test the new support level after breaking long-term resistance at 80 Japanese Yen. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero, after a long-term bullish divergence, indicates a primary up-trend. Expect a test of the 2011 high at ¥85.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

March 1, 2012

Gold encounters resistance as Dollar finds support

Spot gold ran into resistance at $1800/ounce and is testing medium-term support at $1700. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend but we will not have confirmation until there is a clear break through $1800.

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

The Dollar Index is conversely testing support at 78.00. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum may be slowing but the dollar remains in a primary up-trend. Respect of support would signal continuation — and weaker demand for gold.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

February 23, 2012

Aussie Dollar and Canada’s Loonie encounter resistance

The Aussie Dollar is testing short-term support at $1.06, the lower peak at $1.08 warning of selling pressure. Breach of the secondary rising trendline (and support at $1.06) would warn of a correction to the long-term trendline around $1.02. Recovery above $1.08, however, would signal a fresh primary advance with a long-term target of $1.20*.

Australian Dollar/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

Canada’s Loonie continues to consolidate below $1.01 on the weekly chart, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum crossed to above zero, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would confirm, offering an initial target of $1.06*.

Canadian Dollar/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Both the Aussie and the Loonie are strongly influenced by commodity prices. If the CRB Commodities Index breaks resistance, expect both currencies to follow — though Canada will benefit more from higher oil prices.

February 22, 2012

Gold tests $1800/ounce

Spot gold is testing resistance at $1800/ounce on the weekly chart after completing a small flag to signal continuation of the up-trend. Breakout would signal a primary advance to $2100*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + (1800 – 1500 ) = 2100

The US Dollar Index remains weak as inflation expectations rise. Failure of medium-term support at 78.50 would warn of trend weakness, while recovery above 80.00 would indicate trend strength. Target for a breakout above 81.50 would be 85.00*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 75 ) = 85

February 20, 2012

Yen breaks 5-year trend

The US Dollar broke its 5-year down-trend against the Japanese Yen. Penetration of the descending trendline from 2007 indicates that a bottom is forming. Breakout above resistance at ¥80 would signal the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial target of ¥86, confirming the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

February 16, 2012

Forex: Euro slides on Greek turmoil

The euro retreated below $1.32 USD; failure of support at $1.30 would indicate another test of primary support at $1.26. And breakout below primary support would signal a decline to $1.20*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.32 – 1.26 ) = 1.20

Pound Sterling is retreating on the weekly chart. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of another test of primary support at $1.53.

Pound Sterling

Canada’s Loonie respected resistance at $1.01 and is likely to re-test its rising trendline. Recovery above $1.01 is uncertain but would signal a primary up-trend.

Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie Dollar similarly respected resistance at $1.08 and is likely to test medium-term support and the rising trendline at $1.04. Breakout above $1.08 would indicate a primary up-trend; confirmed if 63-day Momentum respects the zero line (from above).

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20

The US Dollar found support at R7.50 South African Rand. A rally that respects the descending trendline, however, would warn of continuation of the primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

US Dollar/South African Rand

The greenback is strengthening against the Japanese Yen. Breach of the descending trendline indicates that a bottom is forming. And breakout above ¥80 would signal the start of a primary up-trend — confirming the long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84