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May 17, 2012

Forex: Japanese Yen

The US Dollar found support at ¥80 Japanese Yen. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough high above zero would indicate a strong up-trend. Recovery above the declining trendline and resistance at ¥82 would strengthen the signal. Failure of support is unlikely but would test primary support at ¥76.

USD/Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 80 ) = 88

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 17, 2012

Forex: UK and Europe

The Euro is headed for a test of primary support at $1.26 against the greenback, after breaking support at $1.30. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of support would signal a decline to $1.17*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling continues to strengthen against the euro, testing resistance at €1.26*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough high above zero indicates a strong up-trend. Weak retracement which fails to test the new support level around €1.22 would alert us to an accelerating/exponential up-trend.

Pound sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.22 + ( 1.22 – 1.18 ) = 1.26

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 17, 2012

Forex: Australia, Canada, South Africa

Canada’s Loonie broke support at $0.995 and the rising trendline against the greenback, indicating another test of primary support at $0.95. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $0.95 would confirm.

Canadian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is expected to follow commodities lower, testing primary support at $0.96. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of another primary decline. Recovery above $1.02 is unlikely but would indicate an advance to $1.08.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar strengthened against the South African Rand, but respect of resistance at R8.30 would warn of a decline to R7.50*. Breach of support at R7.90 would confirm. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating close to zero indicates uncertainty, however, and breakout above R8.30 would test long-term resistance at R8.50.

Australian Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 17, 2012

Dollar rallies while Gold & Silver fall

The Dollar Index is testing primary resistance at 81.50 on the weekly chart. Respect of zero by the latest 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Follow-through above 82 would signal an advance to 86*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold broke support at $1550/ounce on the daily chart. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at $1600 but a sharp fall below zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at $1500 would confirm, offering a long-term target of $1200*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

Spot Silver is testing primary support at $26/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero already indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of support would offer a target of $16/ounce*.

Spot Silver

* Target calculation: 26 – ( 36 – 26 ) = 16

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 9, 2012

Forex: Australia, Canada and South Africa

Weakening commodity prices are dragging the Australian Dollar lower against the greenback. Breach of support at $1.02 indicates another test of primary support at $0.96. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at $0.96 would confirm, offering a long-term target of $0.84*.

Australian Dollar/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 0.84

Canada’s Loonie is strengthening against the Australian Dollar, having penetrated its long-term descending trendline and with 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovering above zero. Breakout above parity would signal the start of a primary up-trend.
Canadian Dollar/Australian Dollar

The Loonie retreated against the greenback, testing support at $0.995 after a false break above $1.01. Failure of support would confirm a bull trap and test primary support at $0.95. Recovery above $1.01 remains as likely, however, and would signal a primary advance; respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.

Canadian Dollar/US Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie found support at R7.90 against the South African Rand. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains weak and reversal below zero would indicate a primary down-trend. Failure of support at R7.90 would warn of a correction to R7.50*. Recovery above R8.30, however, would signal a fresh primary advance.

Australian Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 9, 2012

Forex: US Dollar/Japanese Yen

The US dollar is testing long-term support at ¥80. Failure would warn of weakness in the primary up-trend but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation. Recovery above ¥82 would indicate a fresh primary advance, with a target of ¥90*.

US Dollar/ Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 9, 2012

Forex: Euro and Pound Sterling

The euro broke support at $1.30, completing a bearish descending triangle on the weekly chart and signaling another test of primary support at $1.26. In the longer term, breach of $1.26 would offer a target of $1.17*. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the bear signal.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling is in a strong primary up-trend against the euro, with 63-day Twiggs Momentum completing troughs high above zero. Target of €1.255* for the current advance is about to be broken.

Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.215 + ( 1.215 – 1.175 ) = 1.255

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 9, 2012

Gold breaks support at $1600/ounce

Spot Gold broke its long-term rising trendline and support at $1600, warning of a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Failure of primary support at $1500 would confirm, offering a target of $1200*. Recovery above $1600 would indicate all bets are off.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1500 – (1800 – 1500) = 1200

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, has been suggesting a gold down-trend for some time.

Gold Bugs Index

The Dollar Index broke through resistance at 80 on the weekly chart and a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates another rally. Expect a test of 82 in the next few weeks, mirrored by a weakening gold price.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 3, 2012

Forex: US Dollar/Yen

The US dollar is testing long-term support at ¥80. Failure would warn of weakness in the primary up-trend, while respect would indicate a primary advance to ¥90. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation of the primary trend.

US Dollar/ Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 3, 2012

Forex: Pound Sterling strengthens against Euro

The euro is headed for another test of support at $1.30. Failure would complete a small bearish descending triangle on the weekly chart. Breach of primary support at $1,26 would offer a long-term target of $1.17*. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling is in a primary up-trend against the euro, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero. Target for the current advance is €1.255*.

Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.215 + ( 1.215 – 1.175 ) = 1.255

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.