Coverage of all major currencies and the US Dollar Index.
The US dollar is testing long-term support at ¥80. Failure would warn of weakness in the primary up-trend, while respect would indicate a primary advance to ¥90. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation of the primary trend.
* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90
The euro is headed for another test of support at $1.30. Failure would complete a small bearish descending triangle on the weekly chart. Breach of primary support at $1,26 would offer a long-term target of $1.17*. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17
Pound Sterling is in a primary up-trend against the euro, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero. Target for the current advance is €1.255*.
* Target calculation: 1.215 + ( 1.215 – 1.175 ) = 1.255
The Australian dollar has tracked the CRB Commodities Index fairly closely since 2009. Weakening commodity prices warn that the Aussie is likely to follow.
Against the US dollar, the Aussie is headed for another test of support at $1.02. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $1.02 would confirm this, offering an initial target of $0.99.
* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.05 – 1.02 ) = 0.99
Canada’s Loonie is in a primary up-trend against the Aussie dollar — as signaled by the 63-day Twiggs Momentum cross to above zero. Breakout above $0.982 completes a bullish ascending triangle formation with a target of parity.
* Target calculation: 0.98 + ( 0.98 – 0.96 ) = 1.00
The Aussie is also weakening against the South African Rand. Cross of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at R7.90 would confirm, offering an initial target of R7.50*.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
Spot Gold continues its consolidation between $1600 and $1700 per ounce, while testing the long-term rising trendline. Recovery above $1700 would suggest another primary advance; confirmed if an inverted head and shoulders formation is completed by a rise above $1800. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty, however, and failure of support at $1600 would warn of a long-term trend change and test the primary level at $1500.
* Target calculation: 1800 + (1800 – 1600) = 2000; 1500 – (1800 – 1500) = 1200
The US Dollar Index reflects the inverse of gold, with a potential triple bottom threatening to end the long-term down-trend on the Monthly chart. 50-Week Twiggs Momentum is oscillating around the zero line, indicating uncertainty.
On the weekly chart, the dollar has met strong resistance at 80 and reversal below support at 78 would warn of another test of the 2011 low at 73. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86; 78 – ( 82 – 78 ) = 74
The greenback is consolidating between ¥80 and ¥82 against the Japanese Yen. Recovery above ¥82 would indicate a fresh primary advance, with a target of ¥90*. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would confirm a strong primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90
The euro continues to test medium-term support at $1.30. With the dollar currently “the best horse in the glue factory”, support is likely to fail, signaling a re-test of the primary level at $1.26. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would indicate continuation of the primary down-trend; failure of primary support would confirm.
* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17
Sterling is testing resistance at $1.62. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary advance, but news that the UK has dipped back into recession may inhibit further gains. Reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at $1.53, while breakout above $1.62 would signal an advance to the 2011 high of $1.67.
The Loonie broke through resistance at $1.01 against the greenback, indicating an advance to the 2011 high of $1.06. This confirms the earlier signal when 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovered above zero.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
The Dollar Index continues to struggle with resistance at 80. Reversal below 78 would signal the end of the primary up-trend and a re-test of the 2011 low. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the warning, while respect would indicate another primary advance.
* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86
Spot Gold failed to respond to the listless dollar, testing the long-term trendline and support at $1600/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating around the zero line indicates indecision. Recovery above $1700 would indicate a fresh primary advance, while failure of $1600 would warn of a primary down-trend — with a long-term target of $1200*.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 2000; 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200
Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation, having withstood falling crude oil prices over the last two weeks. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high of $1.06*. Failure of support at $0.995 is less likely but would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.95.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
Weaker commodity prices are dragging the Aussie Dollar lower. On the weekly chart we can see the Aussie testing medium-term support at $1.02. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggest a strong up-trend. In the longer term, breakout above $1.085 would offer a target of $1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at $1.045. Breach of its descending trendline indicates that the correction has weakened. Recovery above $1.045 would indicate the start of a fresh advance to test the 2012 high of $1.085.
The Aussie Dollar is also retracing for another test of support against the South African Rand — at R7.90/R8.00. Momentum has fallen sharply and failure of support would warn of a correction to the long-term ascending trendline, around R7.50.
The Euro is consolidating above support at $1.30. Failure would test primary support at $1.26. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would indicate continuation of the primary down-trend. In the long term, failure of $1.26 would signal a decline to the 2010 low of $1.19/$1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.34 – 1.26 ) = 1.18
Pound Sterling is consolidating below resistance at $1.60. Upward breakout would indicate an advance to the 2011 high of $1.67 — confirmed if resistance at $1.62 is penetrated — while failure of short-term support at $1.58 would warn of another test of primary support at $1.53. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend; but this would only be confirmed by breakout above $1.62.
The US Dollar is testing support at ¥80, against the Japanese Yen. Respect is likely and recovery above ¥82 would indicate a fresh primary advance. Penetration of resistance at ¥84 would confirm the primary up-trend already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero.
* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90
