Forex Archives - Page 17 of 58 - the patient investor

January 30, 2017

Australia at risk as USD rises

NAB are predicting that the RBA will cut rates twice in 2017.

This ties in with the Credit Suisse view: if Donald Trump succeeds in reducing the US trade deficit, it will cause a USD shortage in international markets. And, in Australia, “a USD shortage tends to exert downward pressure on rates, bond yields, the currency and even house prices.”

Macrobusiness joins the dots for us: “a rising USD this year is very bad for commodity prices and national income while being bearish for interest rates and the AUD.”

Source: CS: Australia at risk as USD rises – MacroBusiness

December 20, 2016

Best time to short commodities since 2012

From Vesna Poljak:

….China’s stimulus is finite and demand for raw materials will collapse without it.

Australian Atul Lele, the Bahamas-based chief investment officer of private wealth manager Deltec, says all monetary and fiscal stimulus has a natural conclusion – “it just ends” – and traditional indicators of commodity prices such as global growth and liquidity conditions have been outrun by prices already.

“Right now, commodity prices are consistent with 8 per cent global industrial production. If we saw that, ex of the financial crisis recovery, it would be the strongest rate of global industrial production growth since 1981, at least. Now I’m bullish global growth and more bullish than most people, but it’s not going to happen and even if it does happen, all you’ve done is justify current commodity prices. So why would you buy a resource stock now?”

China continues to inject stimulus to revive its economy but that is making its financial system increasingly unstable. Credit growth in excess of 30% of annual GDP warns of a banking crisis according to the BIS. And shrinking foreign reserves flag that the currency is under pressure.

China faces the impossible trinity. According to David Llewellyn-Smith at Macrobusiness, a country pegged to the Dollar can only achieve two out of the following three:

a stable exchange rate
independent monetary policy
free and open international capital flows

At present all three are under pressure.

Source: Best time to short commodities since 2012 says Deltec’s Atul Lele

December 14, 2016

Gold falls as the Fed hikes rates

10-Year Treasury yields jumped above resistance at 2.5 percent after the latest Fed rate hike. Penetration of the long-term descending trendline warns that the secular down-trend is ending. Expect a test of the 2013/2014 high at 3.0 percent. Breakout would confirm the long-term down-trend has ended.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Dollar Index respected its new support level at 100, signaling an advance to 107*.

US Dollar Index

* Target medium-term: 100 + ( 100 – 93 ) = 107

Gold continued its descent in response to rising interest rates and a stronger Dollar. Steps by the Chinese government to limit private gold purchases, in an attempt to support the Yuan, will also impact on demand. Target for the decline is unchanged at the December 2015 low of $1050/ounce. Retracement that respects the resistance level at $1200 would further strengthen the bear signal.

Spot Gold

December 9, 2016

Gold declines as interest rates rise

The Fed is expected to hike interest rates in December. Long-term interest rates are rising in anticipation of further rate hikes in 2017. 10-Year Treasury yields have penetrated their 10-year descending trendline, warning that the secular down-trend is ending. Breakout above 2.50 percent would strengthen the signal, while follow-through above the 2013/2014 high of 3.0 percent would confirm.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Dollar Index successfully tested its new support level at 100. Target for the advance is 107*.

US Dollar Index

* Target medium-term: 100 + ( 100 – 93 ) = 107

With interest rates rising and the Dollar strengthening, demand for Gold is shrinking. Steps by the Chinese government to limit private gold purchases, part of their program to support the Yuan by slowing capital flight, will also impact on demand. Target for the decline is unchanged at the December 2015 low of $1050/ounce. Retracement that respects the resistance level at $1200 would strengthen the bear signal.

Spot Gold

December 6, 2016

Yuan Warning

Our forex data feed shows a current USDCNY exchange rate of 7.4775, which matches Barcharts.com and Google Finance, but Bloomberg and NetDania show a far lower rate of 6.8681. We have asked our data suppliers to investigate the disparity. Please do not act on the rates quoted without verifying with your bank/forex dealer.

December 2, 2016

Gold and Dollar pause

The Dollar Index paused in its advance and is likely to retrace to test the new support level at 100. Target for the advance is 107*.

US Dollar Index

* Target medium-term: 100 + ( 100 – 93 ) = 107

Gold paused in its primary decline, in response. The target is unchanged at the December 2015 low of $1050/ounce. Retracement that respects the resistance level at $1200 would strengthen the bear signal.

Spot Gold

November 25, 2016

Gold falls as Dollar climbs

Interest rates are surging as the market anticipates rising inflation under a Trump presidency. 10-Year Treasury yields are testing resistance at 2.50. Breakout is likely and would signal a test of resistance at 3.0 percent. Penetration of 3.0 percent would warn that the 30-year secular down-trend in Treasury and bond yields is coming to an end.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Dollar strengthened in response to rising interest rates, with the Dollar Index breaking resistance at 100 to signal a primary advance with a target of 107*.

US Dollar Index

* Target medium-term: 100 + ( 100 – 93 ) = 107

Gold breached primary support at $1200 in response, signaling a primary decline with a target of the December 2015 low of $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold

In the long-term, higher inflation and a weakening Yuan could both fuel demand for gold as a store of value. But the medium-term outlook is bearish.

November 19, 2016

Gold weakens as interest rates rise

Interest rates are climbing steeply as the market anticipates more inflationary policies under a Trump presidency. 10-Year Treasury yields broke through 2.0 percent and are testing resistance at 2.50. Penetration of the descending trendline would warn that the long-term primary down-trend is weakening, signaling a test of 3.0 percent. Breakout above 3.0 is still some way off but would signal the end of the almost 30-year secular down-trend in Treasury and bond yields.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan has fallen sharply in response to rising interest rates, with the Dollar headed for a test of resistance at 7.0 Yuan (USDCNY).

USDCNY

Gold responded to rising interest rate expectations with a test of primary support at $1200. Narrow consolidation is a bearish sign, as is reversal of 13-week Momentum below zero. Breach of primary support would signal a primary down-trend with an immediate target of $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold

In the long-term, higher inflation and a weakening Yuan could both fuel demand for gold as a store of value. But the medium-term outlook is bearish.

October 28, 2016

Gold: Further weakness likely

US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year yield breaking through 1.80 percent to signal a test of 2.0 percent. Further rises are likely on the back of stronger GDP figures for the last quarter.

10-year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan continues to depreciate against the Dollar in anticipation of another rate rise from the Fed.

USDCNY

Spot gold displays a weak retracement off support at $1250/ounce, with short candles indicating a lack of conviction. Another primary decline is likely and would test primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index respected the descending trendline, suggesting another decline. Reversal below 4300 would confirm, offering a target of 4000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

October 22, 2016

Footsie faces stubborn resistance

The FTSE 100 is testing long-term resistance at 7000/7100. Declining Twiggs Money warns of selling pressure. Retreat below 6950 would warn of a correction to test 6500.

FTSE 100

The quarterly chart below shows the FTSE 100 first tested 7000 resistance in December 1999, reaching a high of 6950, and has struggled to break clear of this level ever since.

FTSE 100

With the pound approaching record lows from 1985, and exports expected to rise, the Footsie finally has a decent chance of breaking clear.

GBPUSD