Category: Forex

Coverage of all major currencies and the US Dollar Index.

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Aussie Gold breakout

The All Ordinaries Gold Index broke through resistance at 5250, signaling a primary advance with a target of 6000. I remain cautious while the Dollar-price of Gold is falling; respect of Gold support at $1250/ounce would strengthen the bull signal.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

The Aussie Dollar continues to fall, boosting local gold stocks.

AUDUSD

Despite the Dollar-price of gold heading for a test of primary support between $1240 and $1250. Trend Index peaks below zero flag selling pressure.

Spot Gold

Largely because the Dollar is strengthening, with the Dollar Index breaking through resistance at 95 to signal continuation of the recent advance.

Dollar Index

A sharp fall in China’s Yuan is unsettling global financial markets.

Dollar/Yuan

The normal response to uncertainty is a flight to safety which boosts the Dollar, Yen and Gold. But this looks like a straight arm-wrestle between the Yuan and the Dollar, with strong demand for the greenback weakening the Dollar-price of Gold.

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ASX 200: Bold play for Aussie Banks

The ASX 300 Banks Index jumped sharply this week as investors made a bold move into the big four banks. Banks have been under the pump for months, with plenty of negative publicity from the Royal Commission accompanied by media coverage of falling house prices. The Aussie Dollar also rallied, suggesting the buyers were offshore.

Have they got it right? Only time will tell. Trying to catch a falling knife is a hazardous endeavor. What looks cheap at the time often ends up being very expensive with the benefit of hindsight.

Bulls would say that the banks are a dominant oligopoly, generating strong cash-flows and un-threatened by international competition. Bears would say they are under-capitalized, poorly managed and sitting atop the mother of all housing bubbles. Technical analysts would say that the Banks index remains in a primary down-trend and this is most likely nothing more than a secondary bear market rally.

ASX 300 Banks Index

But there are broader implications. The bank rally lifted the ASX 200 through resistance at 6150, signaling another primary advance. A Trend Index trough at the zero line flags buying pressure. Target for the advance is the October 2007 high at 6750.

ASX 200

This looks like a bold play by a long-term value investor, taking advantage of the weak Aussie Dollar and strong bearish sentiment towards banks. Where one leads, others are likely to follow.

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Gold weakens as Dollar dominates

The Dollar Index continues to test resistance at 95.

Mohammed El-Erian believes the Dollar is underpriced:

“…the dollar index is now at a 2018 high and, IMO, markets as a whole are yet to price fully the growth and policy differentials that favor the US over many other countries.”

Dollar Index

Expect another test of short-term support at 93.20 but respect is likely and breakout above 95 would signal another advance.

A strong Dollar would suggest weaker gold prices (in Dollars). Spot gold breached support at $1280/ounce, warning of a test of primary support between $1240 and $1250. Trend Index peaks below zero flag selling pressure.

Spot Gold

Australian gold stocks face a different set of drivers. The strong greenback weakened the Aussie Dollar, breach of primary support at 75 warning of a decline to 70 US cents. A long tail on the latest candle suggests a continuing arm-wrestle between buyers and sellers. But the Trend Index peak below zero indicates, in the medium-term, that sellers outweigh buyers.

AUDUSD

Buoyed by a weaker Aussie Dollar, the All Ordinaries Gold Index is rallying to test resistance at 5250. Breakout would signal another advance but retracement is likely to first test support at the rising trendline.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Aussie gold stocks rally as the greenback strengthens

The Dollar Index rallied to test resistance at 95 in response to the latest Fed rate hike. Short retracement is a bullish sign.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold retreated to $1280/ounce. Penetration of the rising trendline warns of a correction to test primary support at $1250. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure.

Spot Gold

Fortunately for Australian gold stocks, the Aussie Dollar broke primary support at 75, warning of a decline to 69/70 US cents. The Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure.

AUDUSD

The weaker Aussie Dollar boosted local gold stocks, with the All Ordinaries Gold Index breaking through resistance at 5100. Follow-through above 5250 would confirm another advance but expect retracement to first test the new support level.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold benefits from Dollar weakness

The Dollar Index encountered resistance at 95 and is now retracing to find support. Support above 91 would be bullish, while breach of 91 would see another test of primary support at 88.50.

Dollar Index

10-Year US Treasury yields are likely to face stubborn resistance at 3.0 percent until threats to the European Union emanating from Italy’s new populist government are resolved. Breakout above 3.0 percent would signal the end of the 3 decades-long secular bull market in bonds — and increase selling pressure on gold.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Spot Gold, benefiting from the weaker Dollar, respected its rising trendline. Recovery above $1300/ounce would suggest another rally, while crossover of the Trend Index above zero would strengthen the signal.

Spot Gold

Australia’s All Ordinaries Gold Index continues its struggle with resistance at 5100, while the Aussie Dollar holds above support at 75 US cents. Penetration of the rising trendline at 4950 would warn of a correction to test primary support at 4600. Breakout above 5100 remains more likely, with a rising trend Index indicating moderate buying pressure.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

The Australian Dollar met resistance at its descending trendline, around 76.75 US cents. Expect another test of primary support at 75. If a Trend Index peak forms below zero, that would warn of strong selling pressure. Breach of primary support at 75 would signal a decline to 69/70 US cents — and strong demand for Australian gold stocks.

AUDUSD

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Gold benefits from Dollar weakness

The Dollar Index encountered resistance at 95 and is now retracing to find support. Support above 91 would be bullish, while breach of 91 would see another test of primary support at 88.50.

Dollar Index

10-Year US Treasury yields are likely to face stubborn resistance at 3.0 percent until threats to the European Union emanating from Italy’s new populist government are resolved. Breakout above 3.0 percent would signal the end of the 3 decades-long secular bull market in bonds — and increase selling pressure on gold.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Spot Gold, benefiting from the weaker Dollar, respected its rising trendline. Recovery above $1300/ounce would suggest another rally, while crossover of the Trend Index above zero would strengthen the signal.

Spot Gold

Australia’s All Ordinaries Gold Index continues its struggle with resistance at 5100, while the Aussie Dollar holds above support at 75 US cents. Penetration of the rising trendline at 4950 would warn of a correction to test primary support at 4600. Breakout above 5100 remains more likely, with a rising trend Index indicating moderate buying pressure.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

The Australian Dollar met resistance at its descending trendline, around 76.75 US cents. Expect another test of primary support at 75. If a Trend Index peak forms below zero, that would warn of strong selling pressure. Breach of primary support at 75 would signal a decline to 69/70 US cents — and strong demand for Australian gold stocks.

AUDUSD

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Falling bond yields fail to tame Gold bears

10-Year Treasury yields retreated below 3.0 percent after threatening a bond bear market for the past week.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Breakout above 3.0 percent would complete a large double bottom reversal in the secular down-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Rising bond yields would be expected to weaken demand for gold as the opportunity cost of holding precious metals increases.

The other major influence on gold prices, the Dollar, continues to strengthen. A strong Dollar would weaken the Dollar-price of gold.

The Dollar Index is rallying to test resistance at 95. Penetration of the long-term descending trendline in April suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold retraced to test the new resistance level at $1300/ounce — the former support level. The declining Trend Index indicates selling pressure and respect of the descending trendline would warn of a test of primary support at $1250/ounce.

Spot Gold

Australian gold stocks fared better, with the All Ordinaries Gold Index finding support at 4950 and the rising Trend Index signaling buying pressure. Respect of the long-term trendline would confirm another primary advance.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

The reason is not hard to find. The Australian Dollar is at a watershed, testing primary support at 75 US cents as the greenback rallies. A Trend Index peak below zero would warn of strong selling pressure. And breach of primary support would signal a decline to 69/70 US cents.

AUDUSD

Offering a potential bull market for Aussie gold stocks.

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Gold stocks retreat

The Dollar rally continues, with the Dollar Index heading for a test of resistance at 95. Penetration of the long-term descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure.

Dollar Index

But rising crude prices still threaten to weaken the Dollar.

WTI Light Crude

Spot Gold broke support at $1300, warning of a test of primary support at $1250/ounce as the Dollar strengthens. The declining Trend Index indicates selling pressure.

Spot Gold

A weakening Australian Dollar continues to test support at 75 US cents as the greenback rallies. Breach would offer a long-term target of 69/70 US cents.

AUDUSD

The weaker Aussie Dollar offered some respite for local gold stocks but the All Ordinaries Gold Index is retracing to test its new support level at 4950/5000. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm a fresh advance and long-term target of 6000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Aussie Gold stocks continue strong run

The Dollar rally is slowing, with the Dollar Index running into resistance at 93, ahead of the anticipated 95. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level at 91 would be a bullish sign. Breach of 88.50 is unlikely but would warn of another primary decline.

Dollar Index

Rising crude prices weaken Dollar demand.

WTI Light Crude

Spot Gold continues to test support at $1300. The declining Trend Index indicates selling pressure and a peak below zero would warn of another test of primary support at $1250/ounce.

Spot Gold

Australian gold stocks continue their strong run. Retracement of the All Ordinaries Gold Index that respects the new support level at 5000/5100 would confirm a fresh advance and long-term target of 6000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

A weakening Aussie Dollar, testing support at 75 US cents, is driving local gold prices. Breach of support would offer a long-term target of 69/70 US cents.

AUDUSD

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Aussie gold stocks breakout

The Dollar rally continues, with the Dollar Index headed for a test of resistance at 95. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure.

Dollar Index

But rising crude prices weaken Dollar demand.

WTI Light Crude

Despite the Dollar rally, Spot Gold found support at $1300, with a long tail indicating buying pressure. Recovery of the Trend Index above zero would confirm.

Spot Gold

But Australian gold stocks are running ahead. Breakout of the All Ordinaries Gold Index above resistance at 5000/5100 signals a fresh advance with a long-term target of 6000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Helped by a weakening Aussie Dollar, testing support at 75 US cents. Breach of support would offer a long-term target of $0.69/$0.70.

AUDUSD

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