Category: Banks & Interest Rates

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S&P 500 reverse pennant

The S&P 500 displays a small broadening wedge (reverse pennant) on the daily chart. Respect of support at 1500 on the last down-swing (within the wedge) suggests an upward breakout. Watch for bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow — which would warn of retracement to the rising trendline.

S&P 500 Index

The quarterly chart warns us to expect strong resistance at the 2000/2007 highs of 1550/1575. Recovery of 63-day  Twiggs Momentum above 10% would increase likelihood of an upward breakout — with a target of 1750* — while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

The Dow is similarly testing long-term resistance, at 14000. Breakout is likely, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs at zero indicating long-term buying pressure.
S&P 500 Index

I repeat my warning from last week:

These are times for cautious optimism. Central banks are flooding markets with freshly printed money, driving up stock prices, but this could create a bull trap if capital investment, employment and corporate earnings fail to respond.

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Did Securitization Lead to Riskier Corporate Lending? – Liberty Street Economics

João Santos writes:

There’s ample evidence that securitization led mortgage lenders to take more risk, thereby contributing to a large increase in mortgage delinquencies during the financial crisis. In this post, I discuss evidence from a recent research study I undertook with Vitaly Bord suggesting that securitization also led to riskier corporate lending. We show that during the boom years of securitization, corporate loans that banks securitized at loan origination underperformed similar, unsecuritized loans originated by the same banks. Additionally, we report evidence suggesting that the performance gap reflects looser underwriting standards applied by banks to loans they securitize.

Read more at Did Securitization Lead to Riskier Corporate Lending? – Liberty Street Economics.

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Why QE is not working

Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, quotes David Beckworth in this lengthy but excellent 2011 paper on Market Monetarism — The Second Monetarist Counter-­revolution:

“…..Declines in the money multiplier and velocity have both been pulling down nominal GDP. The decline in the money multiplier reflects: (1) the problems in the banking system that have led to a decline in financial intermediation as well as (2) the interest the Fed is paying on excess bank reserves. The decline in the velocity is presumably the result of an increase in real money demand created by the uncertainty surrounding the recession. This figure also shows that the Federal Reserve has been significantly increasing the monetary base, which should, all else equal, put upward pressure on nominal spending. However, all else is not equal as the movements in the money multiplier and the monetary base appear to mostly offset each other. Therefore, it seems that on balance it has been the fall in velocity (i.e. the increase in real money demand) that has driven the collapse in nominal spending.”

Beckworth continues:

“[the] sharp decline in velocity appears to be the main contributor to the collapse in nominal spending in late 2008 and early 2009 as changes in the monetary base and the money multiplier largely offset each other. It is striking that the largest run-­ups in the monetary base occurred in the same quarters (2008:Q3, 2008:Q4) as the largest drops in the money multiplier. If the Fed’s payment on excess reserves were the main reason for the decline in the money multiplier and if the Fed used this new tool in order to allow for massive credit easing (i.e. buying up troubled assets and bringing down spreads) without inflation emerging, then the Fed’s timing was impeccable. Unfortunately, though, it appears the Fed was so focused on preventing its credit easing programme from destabilising the money supply that it overlooked, or least underestimated, developments with real money demand (i.e. velocity). As a consequence, nominal spending crashed.”

Christensen concludes:

Subsequent events have clearly proven Beckworth right and it is very likely that had the Federal Reserve not introduced interest on excess reserves then the monetary shocks would have been significantly smaller.

From Market Monetarism – The Second Monetarist Counter-­revolution

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S&P 500 buying pressure

The S&P 500 displays evidence of buying pressure on the daily chart, with brief retracement to test support at 1500 followed by a surge to a new 5-year high. Expect a test of the 2000/2007 highs at 1550/1565.

S&P 500 Index

Troughs above the zero line on 13-week  Twiggs Money Flow indicate longer-term buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 1750*. Reversal below 1500, however, would warn of a widely predicted correction.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum on the Nasdaq 100, however, warns of a reversal. Respect of resistance at 2800 would strengthen the warning, while retreat below 2500 would complete a head and shoulders reversal. Follow-through above 2900 is less likely, but would confirm a bull market signal from the Dow/S&P 500.
S&P 500 Index

These are times for cautious optimism. Central banks are flooding markets with freshly printed money, driving up stock prices, but this could create a bull trap if corporate earnings, capital investment and employment fail to respond.

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A Putrid Smell Is Suddenly Emanating From European Banks | Business Insider

Wolf Richter writes:

A nauseating whiff came from Barclays Friday, when it leaked out that it has been under investigation by the Financial Services Authority and the Serious Fraud Office in Britain for illegal fundraising in 2008. Allegedly, the bank secretly loaned £5.3 billion (US $8.4 billion) to one of Qatar’s sovereign wealth funds, which then turned around and with great public fanfare pumped that money back into Barclays — a scheme to raise capital on paper to escape a government takeover during the financial crisis…..

Read more at A Putrid Smell Is Suddenly Emanating From European Banks – Business Insider.

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Federal Reserve FOMC statement | Press Release

…..Although strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month……

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal……

Read the complete statement at FRB: Press Release–Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement–January 30, 2013.

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History Of Federal Reserve Tightening | Business Insider

Matthew Boesler writes:

Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Bianco says, “Don’t fear interest rate normalization.” That’s the title of one of his recent research notes, which takes a deep dive into what happened to markets each of the 15 times the Fed has embarked on policy tightening since 1965. Bianco writes, “DB economists and rate strategists forecast an unchanged Fed Funds rate until 2014. However, they forecast a 3.0% 10yr Treasury yield at 2013 end. When QE ends it will likely be akin to early-cycle Fed tightening and the uptick in long-term yields will represent a cyclical rise in rates, both of which are bullish.”

Chart analysis of previous tightening cycles at History Of Federal Reserve Tightening – Business Insider.

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Financial hangover is Britain's biggest growth headache

David smith writes:

Sir Mervyn King, in Tuesday’s final regional speech as Bank governor, in Belfast, barely mentioned fiscal policy as a factor in the slow recovery. Instead, as well as the high-inflation squeeze on real take-home pay and the eurozone, he focused on another financial factor.

The problem, he said, was “the extent to which the balance sheets of the major UK banks had grown before the crisis hit, and had been financed primarily by borrowing.

“So the subsequent reduction in bank lending – the deleveraging – was greater here than in many other countries. That deleveraging has as its counterpart a reduction in the amount of (broad) money in the economy and a reduced willingness on the part of banks to expand lending.”

Read more at David Smith's EconomicsUK.com: Financial hangover is Britain's biggest growth headache.

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Visible Hand Of The Fed | Business Insider

Lance Roberts writes:

While the Fed programs that we have witnessed since the financial crisis are historically unique — liquidity driven markets are not. We have witnessed the effects of excess liquidity in the bull market cycle prior to the 2008 financial crisis. The only difference during that cycle was that, through government intervention, real estate was turned into an ATM allowing mortgage equity withdrawals to be the liquidity source for the economy and the markets…….

Read more at Lance Roberts: Visible Hand Of The Fed – Business Insider.

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The China Beige Book Has Some 'Shocking' Data | CNBC

Ansuya Harjani writes:

“In the fourth quarter, we’re seeing corporate loans decline significantly, very shockingly most of our bankers say less than 20 percent of their lending goes to new loans. Most of its going to debt rollovers or increases, they are not funding expansion. That indicates that this is not a period of strong expansion,” Leland Miller, president at CBB [China Beige Book] told CNBC on Wednesday.

via The China Beige Book Has Some 'Shocking' Data.

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