Economy Archives - Page 93 of 136 - the patient investor

March 2, 2013

In support of land taxes

Thanks to Alex Fletcher who submitted this as a comment:

From a purist point of view I believe Geolibertarianism is the moral philosophy that should guide taxation:-

“Geolibertarians are advocates of geoism, which is the position that all natural resources – most importantly land – are common assets to which all individuals have an equal right to access; therefore, individuals must pay rent to the community if they claim land as their private property. Rent need not be paid for the mere use of land, but only for the right to exclude others from that land, and for the protection of one’s title by government. They simultaneously agree with the libertarian position that each individual has an exclusive right to the fruits of his or her labor as their private property, as opposed to this product being owned collectively by society or the community, and that ‘one’s labor, wages, and the products of labor’ should not be taxed.”

In reality though it is about what is practically possible. The Henry review [in Australia] aimed for four bases – personal income, business income, consumption and economic rents of natural resources and land. At present land tax has a much smaller role than the other three.

Any change to increase the proportion of total taxation from LVT can only be achieved slowly and with much opposition. The ACT proposal to change existing property taxes and stamp duty to an annual LVT is the best start one can hope for. The plan is such that if a landowner really wants to keep stamp duty instead of an annual fee they can virtually do so. There was an article in The Drum about it.

I believe GST is more efficient than income tax and in that context may be better. However if, as geonomics asserts, the main contributor to unemployment is that land is priced out of reach, increasing the GST and broadening the base without a broad-based LVT as well, would not abolish unemployment and so would increase hardship for the very poor.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

March 2, 2013

Matt Busigin On Peak Capitalism | Business Insider

Joe Weisenthal presents the following two charts to illustrate how government is coping with falling manufacturing wages:

You’ve probably seen this chart many times, which shows wages declining as a percent of GDP over the last few decades.

But things look a tad different when you look at wages PLUS government transfer payments (predominantly entitlement programs) as a share of GDP.

What the writer fails to recognize is that lifting government welfare payments is not a solution. It is part of the problem. Increasing transfer payments encourages welfare dependancy and hinders the adaptive process that allows capitalism to adjust to new challenges.

Eventually the tail begins to wag the dog, with welfare dependents voting themselves increases. Economic stagnation evolves into economic deterioration, hindering new capital formation with excessive red tape and a rising welfare burden.

…..The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
via Matt Busigin On Peak Capitalism – Business Insider.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 2, 2013

Nations Must Prepare For Robots Destroying The Low-Skill Job Market | Business Insider

This opinion piece from the Economist proposes redistribution on a grand scale to remedy massive unemployment from mechanization of assembly lines.

If society wishes to avoid such an outcome, the only real option is redistribution and a lot of it. That, in turn, could be managed in a few ways. Society could make a go at raising the earnings potential of less skilled workers by investing heavily in education. That will strike many as the most attractive solution, but it is also one that will face limits. Not everyone can be educated to Google-engineer level.

More skilled or richer elements of society could effectively tax themselves by protecting certain job categories in order to maintain employment opportunities for the less skilled. So, driverless cars may soon be an operating reality. But society could pass laws banning or limiting AVs in order to protect certain jobs: taxi driver, for instance, or trucker. Depending on the size and organisation of less-skilled groups, that’s conceivably a benefit they could vote themselves.

This is why socialism does not work. The typical reaction of a central planned economy would be to increase taxes or outlaw technological advances in order to protect jobs. Capitalism coped comfortably with the mechanization of agriculture, introduction of the automobile and the computer. Should we have banned the use of tractors, automobiles and automatic teller machines to protect the jobs of farm laborers, ostlers and bank tellers? The first instinct of central planning is to protect the status quo — which is why socialist countries fail to grow. Visitors to communist bloc countries during the Cold War felt they were going through a time warp: the contrast with Western advancement was striking. A more recent example is the economic stagnation in Southern Europe. Without the creative destructive process that allows capitalist economies to adapt to changing needs, progress grinds to a halt and economic gridlock develops.

Adaptation to new technologies will not come from government think-tanks, ivory tower academics or even big business. It will come from thousands of start-ups, all trying to take advantage of the changes. And the millions of lost jobs will be absorbed into other sectors of the economy as new needs arise.

Larger profit margins from mechanization will be eroded by increased competition. Prices of manufactured goods will fall, leaving consumers with more money to spend. Man has unlimited wants and only finite resources. As Abraham Maslow described: when one need is satisfied, new needs surface to take their place. Increased consumption in other sectors — whether bigger houses, more flat screen TVs, or longer holidays — will generate employment opportunities.

Like evolution, the beauty of the capitalist system is its simplicity. Recent failures like the global financial crisis are not the fault of capitalism but the result of central planners — at the Fed and in government — attempting to meddle with the system. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

via Nations Must Prepare For Robots Destroying The Low-Skill Job Market – Business Insider.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 1, 2013

Number for the month is 178,171

The number of containers (TEUs) that arrived loaded but were returned empty from the Port of Los Angeles during January 2013 is 178171*. That is 53 percent of all inbound containers are returned empty.

As I have said before, those containers are not really empty:

Shippers attempt to fill containers on their return journey, even at super-low rates, in order to offset the cost of completing the round-trip. Empty containers indicate failure to locate manufactured goods that can compete in these export markets. This affects not only the shipper, but the entire economy. Those containers leaving the West Coast are not really empty. They contain something far more valuable than the goods being imported. They contain manufacturing jobs — and the infrastructure, skills and know-how to support them.

In 2011, when President Obama announced his jobs program, empty outbound containers were running at 48 percent.

* 337,428 loaded inbound minus 159,257 loaded outbound

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 1, 2013

US & Asia: Contrasting economic activity

While Fedex broke through long-term resistance at $100, signaling rising activity in North America….
Fedex
The Harpex index of container shipping (charter) rates, primarily for movement of finished goods, is close to its 2009 low. There is no indication of a resurgence in exports between Asia and the West.
Harpex Container Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 1, 2013

The Sequester Will Be Good for the Economy | Cato Institute

Jeffrey Miron argues that we should use cost-benefit analysis to evaluate government expenditure:

…even if transfers help stimulate consumer spending, their net effect on the economy is unclear. This implies that whether the sequester will harm or help the economy depends on whether cost-benefit considerations can justify the existing level of government expenditure. And on this question, the answer is clear. Across all categories, federal expenditure is far greater than necessary to achieve the legitimate goals of government intervention.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 28, 2013

ECB Says Private Lending Contracted for Ninth Month in January – Bloomberg

Jana Randow at Reuters writes:

Lending to households and companies in the euro area shrank for a ninth month in January as the recession damped demand for credit.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 25, 2013

S&P 500 breaks support at 1500

The S&P 500 broke support at 1500 and is headed for support at 1475.

S&P 500 Index

On the weekly chart we can see that a correction below 1475 would target support at 1425 (the secondary trendline). Only primary support at 1350, however, would signal a reversal. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate continuation of the up-trend, while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.

S&P 500 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 24, 2013

S&P 500 finds support but Nasdaq warns caution

The S&P 500 found support at 1500 and is headed for a re-test of resistance at 1525/1530. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of mild selling pressure. Breakout above resistance would negate this, while reversal below 1500 and the rising trendline would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index

Breach of the secondary trendline (above) would indicate a correction to test primary support at 1350. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above 10% would increase likelihood of an upward breakout — with a target of 1750* — while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

The Nasdaq 100 is weaker, with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of a primary trend reversal. Breakout below primary support at 2500 would confirm, offering a target of 2100*.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 24, 2013

Scott Minerd: The Keynesian Depression | John Mauldin

Scott Minerd, Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Funds, writes:

Though some may be cheered by the relative policy successes this time around, at the current trajectory it will still take almost as long for total employment to fully recover as it did in the 1930s. While job loss was not as severe this time, the recovery in job creation has been much slower. Although nominal and real gross domestic production have returned to new highs on a per capita basis, we are still below 2007 levels. In the same way the Great Depression and the depressions before it lasted eight to 10 years, we will likely continue to see constrained economic growth until 2015-2016 roughly nine years after U.S. home prices began to slide.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.