Economy Archives - Page 118 of 136 - the patient investor

June 20, 2012

Inflation/Deflation Face-Off: Harry Dent v. James Rickards

At the latest Casey Research conference, Recovery Reality Check, James Rickards, senior managing director of Tanget Capital Partners and author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, debates Harry Dent, founder and president of HS Dent Foundation, on the subject of which is more likely in the near-term economic future, inflation or deflation.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

June 20, 2012

China in deflation, and how to reflate it at all costs

Zarathustra: [Chinese] over-investment over the past many years, and particularly in the years after the financial crisis, has created massive over-capacity across the economy that no one is really able to quantify. We have already got over-building in the real estate sector which resulted in massive number of empty apartments and empty shopping malls…. We are also aware of the over-capacity and inventory build-up in various sectors like coal and steel….. steel industry profits have fallen by 96.7% in the first four months of the year compared to the same period a year ago….. actual CPI figures are already in negative territory on a month-on-month basis. In short, deflation is already here for China….

via China in deflation, and how to reflate it at all costs.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 20, 2012

Since Lehman’s collapse, China’s money supply has doubled

Zarathustra: We have just discovered that China’s M2 money supply has doubled once more since the collapse of Lehman brothers. M2 money supply currently stands at around RMB90 trillion, and it was at about RMB45 trillion the month before Lehman collapsed. Thus the so-called RMB4 trillion stimulus after Lehman’s collapse (which is more like a RMB8 trillion fiscal stimulus in reality) has translated into a RMB45 trillion increase in M2 money supply.

via Chart: Since Lehman’s collapse, China’s money supply has doubled.

Hat tip to macrobusiness.com.au

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 19, 2012

FedEx Signals Freightload of Economic Woe – WSJ.com

Air-freight competitor UTi Worldwide, which recently reported results, sounded a note of caution about business in coming months. And April data on volumes from FedEx, the latest available, suggest a 9% drop in international cargo through its main hub in Memphis.

All this hints that fourth-quarter results for the period ended in May, due Tuesday, could be accompanied by cautious guidance for the next fiscal year…….A glance at sales and income from previous downturns shows how sensitive FedEx is to economic growth…. the kind of company that catches a cold when the world economy merely sneezes.

via AHEAD OF THE TAPE: – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 18, 2012

ECB’s Nowotny Cautions Against ‘Single-Minded’ Austerity – Real Time Economics – WSJ

“The single-minded concentration on austerity policy (in the 1930s) led to mass unemployment, a breakdown of democratic systems and, at the end, to the catastrophe of Nazism,” said Ewald Nowotny [Austria’s central bank governor and member of ECB governing council] at a financial conference in Vienna. He added that central bankers during the start of the financial crisis had been very keen to avoid the mistakes of the 1930s.

Mr. Nowotny also cautioned against trying to impose a “moralistic” solution to the euro zone’s current debt problems. “It is not about punishing children who have behaved badly,” he said, adding that it was important not to let the concept of moral hazard turn into an excuse for not taking “practical initiatives.”

via ECB’s Nowotny Cautions Against ‘Single-Minded’ Austerity – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 17, 2012

Regulators Weigh Easing of Global Bank Rules – WSJ.com

Following months of intense industry pressure, regulators say they now plan to make it easier for banks to comply with a key provision of new international banking rules that will require lenders to maintain sufficiently deep pools of safe, liquid assets—like cash and government bonds—that can survive market meltdowns and other crises…..Among the planned changes, one would allow a wider variety of assets—such as gold and equities—to count toward banks’ liquidity buffers, according to people involved in the talks.

….Some experts warn that loosening the rules could lead banks to rely on assets that later become unsafe. “The widening of the definition [of eligible assets] can spell trouble, because we may discover illiquidity precisely when the liquidity is needed,” said Anat Admati, a professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business.

via Regulators Weigh Easing of Global Bank Rules – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 15, 2012

The Institute For Fiscal Studies – Biggest one-year fall in middle incomes since 1981

“The fall in median income in 2010–11 of 3.1% was the largest
one-year fall since 1981 and returned it to the level last seen in
2004–05,” says Jonathan Cribb, a Research Economist at the IFS. “This was driven largely by a decline in real earnings as the
impact of the late 2000s recession on incomes finally started to become clear. Inequality also fell as those on benefits had their
incomes relatively better protected. Looking ahead, our forecasts
suggest that median incomes will have fallen further in 2011–12
and median incomes will be no higher in 2015–16 than they
were in 2002–03.”

via The Institute For Fiscal Studies – Biggest one-year fall in middle incomes since 1981.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 12, 2012

Australia: GDP growth is not real

Mark Graph: Table 5 of the national accounts includes the implicit price deflators (IPD) for each term in the expenditure equation for GDP….the big deflationary item was exports….

So we get to the heart of the anomaly: largely because we exported a touch less in volume terms (in Q1 2012 compared with Q4 2011) but at significantly reduced prices, this contributed significantly to an outcome where real GDP grew significantly while nominal GDP stagnated.

via Understanding our price deflationary boom | Mark Graph.

Comment:~ So real GDP growth is not really real. The major difference between nominal GDP growth (1.2% annualized) and real GDP growth (a far more impressive 5.2% annualized) is a fall in the price of exports!

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 11, 2012

Fedex threatens support

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal, with a break of the neckline at $88, and is now consolidating between $85 and $90. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $85 would confirm, suggesting that economic activity is slowing.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 85 – ( 95 – 85 ) = 75

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 8, 2012

Basic economics: Aggregate Demand

This lesson introduces the macroeconomic concept of Aggregate demand.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.