Economy Archives - Page 104 of 136 - the patient investor

November 13, 2012

Australia: Not fiscal cliff — fiscal flab

Jessica Irvine writes that Australia is faced with an aging population and spiraling health costs, but a free-spending government will leave us unprepared.

Two veteran Budget forecasting groups, Deloitte Access Economics and Macroeconomics, have in recent days delivered their verdict on Mr Swan’s mid-year Budget update: It’s codswallop. The Federal Budget is not in surplus by $1.1 billion this year but in deficit by $4.2 billion, according to Deloitte, and $7 billion, according to Macroeconomics…..

via We're afflicted with the same fiscal flab most governments struggle with | thetelegraph.com.au.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

November 13, 2012

President Obama Has Drawn A Dangerous Line In The Sand – Business Insider

Bruce Krating’s analysis of the fiscal cliff stoush:

The headlines make it seem like B&O are ready to work together, and achieve the necessary compromises to avoid falling off a cliff. I think the press has it wrong. We’re headed into a bitter fight; in part, because the President has drawn a very dangerous line in the sand…..

via President Obama's Has Drawn A Dangerous Line In The Sand – Business Insider.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 13, 2012

Jan Hatzius Connects All the Dots | Business Insider

Important insight from Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs, reported by Cullen Roche:

The US private sector continues to run a large financial surplus of 5.5% of GDP, more than 3 percentage points above the historical average. This is the flip side of the deleveraging of private sector balance sheet. We expect a normalization in this surplus over the next few years to provide a boost to real GDP growth. This is the key reason why we see US economic growth picking up gradually in the course of 2013 and into 2014, despite the near-term downside risks from the increase in fiscal restraint……..

via Jan Hatzius Connects All the Dots – Business Insider.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 12, 2012

Resolving The Crisis And Restoring Healthy Growth: Why Deleveraging Matters? | David Lipton | IMF

David Lipton, IMF First Deputy Managing Director writes that when G20 leaders met at the height of the GFC they had two simple objectives: i) to resolve the crisis; and ii) to make sure it did not happen again……..

Progress has been hard in part because the measures called for under each agenda item to some extent undermine the other agenda item. The first objective, exiting the crisis requires strong enough demand to restore growth and jobs. At the same time, the second objective, ensuring sustainability and laying the foundation for a stronger global economy, requires deleveraging in many advanced economies, which will dampen demand, particularly if it happens simultaneously in many sectors in many countries.

Lipton points out that the actions of all major players impact on each other. He calls for deficit countries to continue fiscal consolidation and private sector deleveraging “in a sustainable way” and for “structural reforms to improve competitiveness”. Surplus countries also need to cut back on “reserve accumulation” and allow “more exchange rate flexibility”.

via Resolving The Crisis And Restoring Healthy Growth: Why Deleveraging Matters? by David Lipton, IMF First Deputy Managing Director.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 12, 2012

Japan economy shrinks as China dispute takes toll

Elaine Kurtenbach at USA Today writes:

Japan’s economy contracted in the latest quarter, signaling that like Europe it may already be in recession, further weighing down world growth. On an annualized basis, the world’s No. 3 economy shrank 3.5% in the July-September quarter, the government reported Monday. It was in line with gloomy forecasts after Japan’s territorial dispute with China hammered exports that were already weakened by feeble global demand……

Rajeshni Naidu-Ghelani at CNBC writes that Japan’s recovery depends on global demand:

Izumi Devalier, Japan economist at HSBC in Hong Kong backed that sentiment saying Japan’s economic development over the past decade shows that it’s been extremely dependent on exports and external demand.

“Sad to say, Japan will have to wait for the overseas economies to pick up before it sees its own economy really lifted,” Devalier told CNBC.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 12, 2012

UK: Bank break-up an option if ring-fence fails | Vickers

Matt Scuffham and Steve Slater write:

Britain could force banks to fully separate their retail operations from riskier areas if lenders fail to implement a “ring-fence” that sufficiently safeguards taxpayers or improves behavior, the architect of the plan said on Monday.

The Independent Commission on Banking, chaired by Sir John Vickers, recommends that UK banks “ring-fence” their retail operations to protect customers from riskier investment banking activities.

Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s financial stability director, commented last week that ring-fencing would only work if the retail operations have a separate management, pay structure and balance sheet.

via Bank break-up an option if ring-fence fails: Vickers | Reuters.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Taking the leverage out of economic growth | Reuters

Edward Hadas points out that long-term credit growth has exceeded growth in nominal GDP (real GDP plus inflation) in the US and Europe for some time. Not only does this fuel a credit bubble but it leads to a build up of inflationary pressure within the economy. If not evident in consumer prices it is likely to emerge as an asset bubble.

For the last two decades, accelerating credit has been closely correlated with the change in GDP – both in the United States and the euro zone. GDP growth tended to speed up shortly after the rate of credit growth increased, and slowed down after credit growth started to decrease.

This correlation implies there is an equilibrium rate of credit growth – the rate that corresponds to the long-term pace of nominal GDP growth. Though the pace of credit growth can vary from year to year, over time private debt and nominal GDP have to expand at the same rate for overall leverage to stay constant. That’s not what happened in the past two decades. Since 1990, Deutsche found a significant gap between credit and GDP growth in the United States and the euro zone.

In both, the neutral rate of credit growth – the rate associated with the economy’s long-term growth rate – was 7 percent. Those long-term nominal GDP growth rates were lower: 4.8 percent in the United States and 4 percent in the euro zone. In a single year, the difference of 2-3 percentage points doesn’t have much effect. Over a generation, though, it leads to a massive increase in the ratio of private debt to GDP.

The gap between growth in Domestic Debt and Nominal GDP widened in 2004/5 during the height of the property bubble and has narrowed to near zero since 2010.
Domestic Debt Growth Compared to GDP Growth
Hopefully the Fed have learned their lesson and maintain this course in future.

via Analysis & Opinion | Reuters.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Europe’s Populists at the Gate by Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate

Barry Eichengreen writes:

In focusing on summit declarations and promises of far-reaching reforms of EU institutions, investors are missing the real risk: the collapse of public support for, or at least public acquiescence to, the austerity policies required to work down heavy debt burdens – and for the governments pursuing these policies. Mass anti-austerity protests are one warning sign. Another is growing popular support for neo-Nazi movements like Golden Dawn, now the third-largest political party in Greece.

The rise to power of a “rejectionist” European government – that is, one that unilaterally rejects the policy status quo – would immediately bring the crisis to a head…….

via Europe’s Populists at the Gate by Barry Eichengreen – Project Syndicate.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Why Investors Shouldn’t Expect Much Euro Zone Reform | Institutional Investor

David Turner writes:

Most economists think deregulation is, in the long term, good for these countries’ economies, and hence for the sustainability of their sovereign debt markets. The economic case for pressing ahead with liberalization is strong. Can institutional investors therefore look forward to a fast pace of growth across the entire euro zone, boosted by deregulation?

The answer is “no,” for several reasons.

Experience shows that politicians will continue pressing ahead with reform only if the markets take them by the heels to dangle them over the precipice……..

via Why Investors Shouldn’t Expect Much Euro Zone Reform | Institutional Investor.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

November 11, 2012

Nomura's fresh alert on a Chinese hard landing | Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes:

Nomura’s early warning signal for the Chinese financial system – the China Stress Index – is flashing amber again…….Its case against China: “overinvestment and excessive credit; a rudimentary monetary policy architecture; too many privileges for state-owned enterprises; unintended consequences of financial liberalisation; the Lewis turning point; and growing pains from worsening demographics and increasing strains on natural resources”……..

via Nomura's fresh alert on a Chinese hard landing – Telegraph Blogs.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.