Category: Economy

Analysis of the global economy

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Fed shock – really?

Stocks plunged on indications that the Fed would slow further rate cuts after announcing a 25-basis-point cut at the FOMC press conference on Wednesday.

Really? That could be seen coming for months. The economy has proven resilient, unemployment is low, and retail sales are growing. The obvious question is: “Why cut rates at all?”

FOMC Decision

As expected, Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, lowering the fed funds rate target to 4.25% to 4.5%.

Financial markets were spooked by the sharp jump in FOMC projections for rate cuts next year. The Dot Plot now centers on a further 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, a target range of 3.75% to 4.0%.

FOMC Dot Plot

Compare that to the September projection below, which was equally divided between 100 and 125 basis points of cuts next year, a range of 3.0% to 3.5%.

FOMC Dot Plot - September

Powell explained that:

  • The economy is “strong” and has made good progress towards the Fed’s goals.
  • The job market has cooled but remains “solid.”
  • Inflation continues to move towards the Fed’s 2% target.

The Fed Chair provided further background in answers to reporters’ questions:

  • “We feel that slowing the pace of future adjustments seems prudent now, especially as we expect inflation to be stickier than we initially thought.”
  • “Some FOMC members did cite future inflationary fiscal policy as a concern.”
  • “Most forecasters keep calling for a slowdown in economic growth, but we haven’t seen it yet and don’t see one happening soon. The US economy is doing great.”
  • “We’re not too worried (about loose financial conditions). Both inflation and labor have cooled, so our policy is working. Financial conditions aren’t impeding us.”

Fed Balance Sheet

Powell announced that QT would continue at the same rate, but the rate offered on reverse repo (RRP) would be lowered, which may encourage further money market outflows into the T-Bill market. Total Fed holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have fallen by $1.9 trillion since their peak of $8.5 trillion in 2022.

Fed Balance Sheet: Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)

Only another $6.0 trillion to go. 😟

Treasury Markets

Ten-year Treasury yields jumped. Breakout above resistance at 4.5% would offer a target of 5.0%, which would be bearish for stocks and precious metals.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Stocks

The S&P 500 plunged to support at 5860. Breach would signal a test of 5700.

S&P 500

Tesla (TSLA) dipped sharply after a spectacular two months, peaking at +117%, compared to Nvidia (NVDA) at -6.6%.

Top 7 Technology Stocks

The weekly chart of the equal-weighted S&P 500 index ($IQX) shows a breach of support at 7150, likely headed for a test of 6900. The lower Trend Index peak identifies selling pressure but is still above zero, indicating that the primary trend remains intact.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index - Weekly

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index dipped to -0.66% on December 13, indicating “loose” monetary conditions. Moody’s Baa corporate bond spreads are also at a thirty-year low, reflecting easy credit conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index & Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads

Bitcoin retraced to test support at $100K, but the strong uptrend still signals abundant financial market liquidity.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar has strengthened in response to rising Treasury yields, with the Dollar Index breaking resistance at 108.

Dollar Index

The Bank of Japan may be forced to raise interest rates again to support the Yen, which could cause an outflow from US financial markets as carry trades unwind.

Japanese Yen - Weekly

Gold broke support at $2,625 per ounce, signaling a test of primary support at $2,550.

Spot Gold

The long-term uptrend, shown on the weekly chart below, remains intact.

Spot Gold - Weekly

Silver similarly broke support at $30 per ounce, but a breach of primary support at $26.50 remains unlikely.

Spot Silver - Weekly

Conclusion

The Fed is riding a wave of deflationary pressure from the global economy, led by China. The bear market in crude oil and copper signals that global demand is contracting. Low inflation should enable further rate cuts next year, but the pace will likely slow as the Fed is wary of a resurgence in domestic demand.

The prospect of inflationary economic policies from the new administration could set off a public feud between Donald Trump and the Fed chairman. Stimulating an economy that is already close to full employment would force the Fed to hike rates to ease inflationary pressures, attracting the ire of the new president.

US financial markets, with rising long-term Treasury yields, are sucking up global liquidity and more than offsetting Fed tightening (QT). The strong Dollar increases pressure on international borrowers in the Eurodollar market as domestic exchange rates weaken. The Bank of Japan may also be forced to hike interest rates again to support the Yen, causing further unwinding of the carry trade and outflows from US financial markets.

The S&P 500 is overdue for a correction, but the primary uptrend is unlikely to reverse unless there is a sharp contraction in financial market liquidity.

Gold and silver are undergoing a sharp correction, but the primary uptrend remains intact. Two long-term fundamental trends support precious metals. First, central banks are increasing their gold reserves and reducing currency reserves as the global sovereign debt bubble expands. Second, in response to a collapsing domestic real estate market, Chinese investors are switching focus to gold and silver as a store of wealth.

Acknowledgments

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The last guardrail

In the above ABC interview, Professor Nouriel Roubini said it would be interesting to watch Trump deal with financial markets:

He said if Trump was “really serious” about 60 per cent tariffs on China, and 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on other trading partners, about sharply weakening the value of the US dollar, about “draconian restrictions” on migration and “mass deportation”, and about tax cuts that weren’t funded by raising other taxes or cutting spending, it could lead to situations Trump wouldn’t like.

“If he tries to follow these policies that are stagflationary, interest rates are going to be much higher, bond yields are going to be higher, the Fed will have to raise rates rather than cutting them, the stock market is going to correct,” he said.

“He cares about the bond market. He cares about the stock market. And therefore market discipline, as opposed to political discipline … [will] be the main constraint [for him].”

Long-term Treasury bonds continued their downtrend after November 5.

iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF

Ten-year yields are testing resistance at 4.5%. A breakout above 4.5% would likely cause a correction in stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Fears of rising inflation are not the only factor driving Treasury yields higher. Since 2020, Treasury issuance has been skewed towards short-dated T-bills, with the issuance of notes and bonds (green) kept as low as possible to suppress long-term yields.

Treasury Issuance

A study by Hudson Bay Capital concluded that rolling back the excess $1 trillion in T-bill issuance would cause a 50 basis point rise in the 10-year yield—equivalent to a 2.0% rise in the Fed funds rate—before settling at a permanent 30 basis point increase.

Also, Fed QE almost exclusively focused on purchasing notes and bonds to keep long-term yields as low as possible. Reducing the Fed’s balance sheet through QT increases the supply of notes and bonds, driving long-term yields higher.

Fed Holdings of Treasury Notes & Bonds and T-bills

Rising long-term yields constrain the S&P 500, which is testing support at 5850. Breach would signal a correction to 5700.

S&P 500

Financial Markets

Bitcoin remains above 90K, signaling strong liquidity in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar index retraced to test support at its rising trendline, but breakout above 107 remains a threat, offering a target of 115.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied off support at $2,550 per ounce. Penetration of the descending trendline at $2,650 would indicate a base forming.

Spot Gold

Silver similarly found support at $30 per ounce.

Spot Silver

Energy

Brent crude remains in a bear market, which is likely to keep inflation in check as long as global demand remains subdued.

Brent Crude

Base Metals

Copper also reflects weak global demand, with another likely test of support at $8,600 per tonne.

Copper

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s election campaign was based on reviving a “weak” economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient. The Fed and Treasury succeeded in taming inflation without crashing the economy—a rare feat. However, their efforts have built up imbalances in the financial system that lie in wait for the unwary.

Stimulating an economy already close to full employment will inevitably cause higher inflation, preceded by a surge in long-term Treasury yields. The result would be a sharp fall in stock prices and a likely recession.

The Republican party may control the House and the Senate, but the final guardrail is the bond market. They ignore that at their peril.

Gold and silver fell as the Dollar soared in response to higher long-term Treasury yields. But yields are rising in anticipation of rising inflation. We remain bullish on gold and retain our $3,000 per ounce target.

Acknowledgments

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Australian retail sales and building approvals

Seasonally adjusted retail sales grew by 0.5% in volume terms in the September quarter.

Australia: Retail Sales

The headline number, however, disguises the underlying stress consumers are experiencing. Per capita retail sales are falling steeply.

Australia: Retail Sales per Capita

The RBA is unlikely to act on this, however. Instead, it will focus on headline numbers like dwelling approvals, which have broken their recent downtrend.

Australia: Building Approvals

Conclusion

A November rate cut remains unlikely.

Acknowledgments

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GDP gradually slowing

Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter.

Real GDP Growth

Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3.

Nominal GDP & Real GDP, Quarterly

Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. Ten-year Treasury yields are lower, indicating that monetary policy remains supportive.

Nominal GDP & 10-Year Treasury Yield

This is borne out by the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index at a low -0.56.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Credit markets also signal strong liquidity, with Moody’s Baa corporate bond spread narrowing to 1.49%.

Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads

Conclusion

Real GDP growth is slowing gradually, as expected during a rate-cut cycle. Financial market liquidity remains strong, and there is nothing particularly concerning.

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ASX 200 jumps to new high

A strong September jobs report boosted the ASX 200 to a new high of 8355, confirming our target of 8500 for this year.

Labor Market

The Australian economy added a seasonally adjusted 64,100 jobs in September, according to the latest Labour Report, well above expectations of 25,000.

Australia: Employment

The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%.

Australia: Unemployment

The surge in jobs was absorbed by an increase in the participation rate to a robust 67.2%.

Australia: Participation Rate

Aggregate hours worked also improved to 1,968 million in September, a 0.3% increase compared to the 0.2% average over the past 12 months.

Australia: Aggregate Hours Worked

Business

Strong labor conditions failed to inspire business confidence, with NAB business confidence (black below) declining to -6 pts in the third quarter.

NAB Business Confidence

Wage costs were the number#1 issue affecting business confidence:

Issues Affecting Business Confidence

The Mining industry (red below) recorded a sharp drop in confidence.

NAB Business Confidence by Industry

Stocks

The ASX 200 rallied through resistance at 8300, confirming our year-end target of 8500.

ASX 200 Index

The ASX 200 rally was led by a strong surge in Financials, which is headed for a test of resistance at 8600.

ASX 200 Financials Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index remains tentative, weighed down by falling demand from China. Breach of support at 5600 would warn of another test of long-term support at 5000.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index

On the other hand, the All Ordinaries Gold Index is testing its July 2020 high at 9500. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 14500. The soaring gold price and falling energy costs have boosted margins, with diesel a substantial cost in extraction and transportation.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Conclusion

A strong jobs report boosted the ASX 200, which recorded a new high of 8355, confirming our target of 8500 for the year.

Strong employment growth suggests that the RBA is unlikely to cut interest rates before next year. Instead, the hawks will be keeping a beady eye on inflation.

Business confidence remains low, with Mining especially hard hit by sluggish demand from China.

The Financials sub-index is headed for a test of resistance at 8600. Breakout would offer a medium-term target of 9200. The All Ords Gold Index is also bullish, testing its 2020 high of 9500. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 14500. Metals & Mining, however, remain bearish.

Acknowledgments

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S&P 500 makes new high

Bond markets were closed Monday for Columbus Day, but financial market conditions show further signs of easing. Equities powered ahead, with the S&P 500 making a new high at 5859.

Stocks

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 5800, strengthening commitment to our target of 6000 by year-end. Rising Trend Index troughs signal long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500

The advance is broad, with the equal-weighted index ($IQX) breaking resistance at its previous high of 7300. This offers a target of 7500.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Financial Markets

Moody’s Baa corporate bonds spread narrowed to 1.54%, signaling ready availability in credit markets.

Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads
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Bitcoin also broke above its six-month trend channel, signaling strong liquidity in financial markets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index continues to strengthen as Treasury yields rise. This may seem counterintuitive, given the prospect of further rate cuts ahead, but the strong September jobs report has increased bond market concerns about an inflation recovery.

Dollar Index

Gold found support at $2,600 per ounce but has hesitated at $2,650. A lower Trend Index peak would warn of another test of support at $2,600. The Shanghai Gold Exchange no longer trades at a premium, with the iAu99.99 contract quoted at 605.04 RMB/gram, equivalent to $2,643 per ounce at the current exchange rate of 7.12 CNY to the Dollar.

Spot Gold

Silver is also hesitant, testing short-term support at $31 per ounce.

Spot Silver

Crude Oil

Brent crude is retracing to test support at $76 per barrel after Israel confirmed they would not strike Iranian oil targets and OPEC cut their oil demand forecast for 2024 and 2025.

Brent Crude

Brent [crude] fell 5%, or more than $4, in after-hours trading following a media report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the U.S. that Israel is willing to strike Iranian military targets and not nuclear or oil ones…..

OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and also lowered its projection for next year, marking the producer group’s third consecutive downward revision. China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade as OPEC trimmed its growth forecast for the country to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 650,000 bpd. China’s crude imports for the first nine months of the year fell nearly 3% from last year to 10.99 million bpd, data showed. Declining Chinese oil demand caused by the growing adoption of electric vehicles (EV), as well as slowing economic growth following the COVID-19 pandemic, has been a drag on global oil consumption and prices. (Reuters)

Base Metals

Copper is testing short-term support at $9,500 per tonne after it respected resistance at $9,900. Breach of support would offer a target of $9,250.

Copper

Aluminum similarly retreated from resistance at $2,650 per tonne and will likely test support at $2,500.

Aluminum

China’s deflationary pressures also worsened in September, according to official data released on Saturday. A press conference the same day left investors guessing about the overall size of a stimulus package to revive the fortunes of the world’s second-largest economy.

“The lack of a clear timeline and the absence of measures to address structural issues, such as weak consumption and reliance on infrastructure investments, have only increased ambiguity amongst market participants,” noted Mukesh Sahdev, the global head of commodity markets-oil at Rystad Energy. (Reuters)

Iron Ore

Iron ore is expected to retrace to test support at $100 per tonne following a sharp rise after China’s stimulus announcement.

Iron Ore

Conclusion

Financial markets show signs of a promising rise in liquidity, with falling corporate bond spreads and Bitcoin breakout above its six-month trend channel. The S&P 500 responded with breakout above 5800, strengthening our commitment to a target of 6000.

Gold and silver display strong uptrends but hesitate in response to a rising Dollar. Increased fears of an inflation rebound are behind the recent rally in long-term Treasury yields and the Dollar. We expect the uptrend in gold and silver to continue, with low real interest rates, whether or not inflation fears fade.

We expect that China will struggle to recover from its current economic slump. The announced stimulus program remains vague and does not address the underlying issue of weak domestic consumption. Deflationary pressures will likely keep a lid on crude oil and industrial metal prices for several years.

Low crude oil prices are also likely to keep inflation in check, leading to low long-term interest rates in the West.

Acknowledgments

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China sizzle turns to fizzle

China’s announcement of economic stimulus and hints at an even larger “bazooka” ahead caused a sizzling rally on the Shanghai exchange, with the CSI 300 leaping 20% in the last week of September.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index displays an even steeper rally.

Hang Seng Index

However, a failure to follow through this week with sufficient detail of the stimulus package caused the rally to fizzle, with a sharp correction on both indices. Today, the Hang Seng is testing support at 20500.

China Stimulus

Crude Oil

Brent crude reversed sharply as prospects faded for a demand recovery in China.

Brent Crude

Treasury Markets

Ten-year Treasury yields stalled and will likely re-test new support at 4.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

According to the theory of interest developed by Swedish economist Knut Wicksell, the equilibrium or natural rate of interest—at which inflationary and deflationary pressures are in balance—is when the cost of borrowing is higher than the average return on new investment. This means that the 10-year Treasury yield–the risk-free rate–should be roughly equal to nominal GDP growth, approximating the return on new investment. The chart below shows that the 10-year Treasury yield, at 4.0%, is significantly lower than nominal GDP growth of 5.7% for the 12 months ended in Q2.

Wicksell Analysis: Nominal GDP Growth & 10-Year Treasury Yield

With the economy showing little sign of slowing, the likely outcome is either higher long-term interest rates or a build-up of long-term inflationary pressure.

Stocks

The S&P 500 gained almost 1.0% on Tuesday, with a shallow retracement and rising Trend Index troughs signaling buying pressure.

S&P 500

Nvidia led the advance of mega-cap stocks, breaking above its August high, while all seven advanced yesterday.

Top 7 Technology Stocks

The equal-weighted index lagged as large caps failed to match mega-cap gains.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Financial Markets

Bitcoin continues to test the upper border of its trend channel. A breakout would be a bullish sign for financial market liquidity.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar Index is expected to retrace to test new support at 102. Respect would confirm an advance to 104.

Dollar Index

Gold is headed for a test of support at $2,600 per ounce, but respect will likely confirm a re-test of $2,700.

Spot Gold

Silver is testing support at $30 per ounce, with respect again likely to signal a re-test of resistance at $32.

Spot Silver

Metals

Copper retreated in response to China’s disappointing stimulus. Expect a correction to test support at $9,250 per tonne.

Copper

Iron ore also reflects disappointment, retreating to $106.30 per tonne.

Iron Ore

Conclusion

A disappointing lack of detail on China’s newly announced stimulus led to a retreat in Chinese stocks and global crude oil, copper, and iron ore.

Ten-year Treasury yields are expected to retrace to test support at 4.0%. While yields are likely to remain low as the Fed cuts interest rates, the long-term equilibrium rate is expected to be higher—between 5% and 6%.

Respect of support at 5650 on the S&P 500 confirms our year-end target of 6000, but the advance is exceedingly narrow and precarious.

Gold is headed testing support at $2,600 per ounce, but respect is likely and would signal a re-test of $2,700.

Acknowledgments

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Narrow advance for stocks, bullish consolidation for gold

Falling CPI and plunging crude prices almost guarantee at least a 25-basis-point rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. Stocks rallied, led by mega-cap technology stocks, but the advance was narrow, with large caps failing to join the party.

Gold is bullish, boosted by falling long-term Treasury yields and a weak Dollar, but silver remains more bearish.

Stocks

Mega-cap technology stocks led the rally, with Nvidia (NVDA) posting solid gains.

Top 7 Technology Stocks

The move lifted the S&P 500 above resistance at 5500, signaling another test of the all-time high at 5670.

S&P 500

Large caps lagged, with the equal-weighted index ($IQX) failing to show much progress.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index eased to -0.57, reflecting easy monetary policy.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin respected support at $54K [red line], but the bearish declining triangle still warns of tighter financial market liquidity ahead.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

Ten-year Treasury yields plunged to almost 3.6% before retracing to test new resistance at 3.7%. The steep fall from the 5.0% peak in October last year indicates market expectations of significant rate cuts ahead.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

Falling long-term interest rates are driving long-term Dollar weakness. Respect of resistance at 102 on the Dollar Index would confirm another decline, while breach of support at 100 would offer a long-term target of 93.

Dollar Index

A stronger Japanese Yen warns of a more hawkish monetary policy from the Bank of Japan. Rising Japanese interest rates will likely withdraw liquidity from US financial markets and weaken the Dollar.

Japanese Yen

Gold is expected to benefit from falling long-term interest rates and a weaker Dollar. The narrow bullish consolidation below $2,525 per ounce suggests another advance. Breakout above resistance would offer a target of $2,600.

Spot Gold

Silver lags behind gold, struggling to break resistance at $30 per ounce. Breach of support at $28 would warn of another test of long-term support at $26.50.

Spot Silver

CPI Inflation

Headline CPI fell sharply to 2.6% for the 12 months to August, but core CPI lifted to 3.3%.

CPI & Core CPI - Annual

Monthly CPI shows that the sharp drop in the headline rate is caused by the base effects of a spike in July of last year [red circle]. Rising core CPI over the past two months, with August growing at an annualized rate of 3.7%, warns of underlying inflationary pressures.

CPI & Core CPI - Monthly

Sticky prices inflation also increased, to an annualized rate of 3.5% in August, warning that underlying inflationary pressures persist.

Sticky Prices CPI

Shelter

Shelter CPI also increased to an annual rate of 5.2% in August, reflecting a trough in home prices in mid-2023. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index [gray below] tends to lead Shelter by roughly 12 months.

CPI Shelter & Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index

Energy

However, the recent sharp fall in crude oil prices warns that inflationary pressures will likely ease in the months ahead.

Brent Crude

Energy CPI grew by -4.0% over the 12 months to August and is likely to fall further in September. The chart below shows how energy CPI [ocher below] plunged from a peak of 41.5% in June ’22, leading to a fall in headline CPI.

CPI & CPI Energy - Annual

Food

Food CPI also declined to an annual rate of 2.1% in August, close to the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

CPI Food

Conclusion

Mega-cap technology stocks lifted the S&P 500 above resistance at 5500, indicating another test of the previous high at 5670. Breakout would offer a target of 6000, but the advance is narrow. Large caps in the index show little in the way of net gains, with the equal-weighted index ($IQX) failing to make much progress.

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index continues to reflect easy monetary policy, but a bearish triangle on Bitcoin and a stronger Japanese Yen warn of tighter liquidity ahead.

The decline in headline CPI is primarily due to base effects from August last year, while core CPI and the sticky price index warn of persistent underlying inflationary pressures. However, a sharp fall in crude oil prices will likely drag overall CPI lower in September.

Falling 10-year Treasury yields reflect market expectations of significant rate cuts commencing on September 18. The Dollar rallied over the week, but the long-term downtrend is likely to persist as rates decline.

Low long-term interest rates and a weak Dollar are expected to be bullish for gold. A Dollar Index breach of support at 100 would confirm our $3,000 per ounce target for gold.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

Nvidia leads the plunge

Stocks plunged after Nvidia (NVDA) fell by 9.5% on reports that the US Department of Justice subpoenaed the chipmaker over complaints that it is violating antitrust laws. (Quartz)

Weak US and China manufacturing activity has also been cited as a cause for market bearishness, but that seems unlikely.

Stocks

Selling in Nvidia [cerise] soon spread to other big-name stocks, with all seven mega-caps closing lower on Tuesday.

Top 7 Technology Stocks

The fall breached short-term support on the S&P 500 at 5550, signaling a correction to test 5400.

S&P 500

The equal-weighted index ($IQX) retraced to test support at 7000. Trend Index troughs above zero indicate longer-term buying pressure. Breach of support would offer a target of 6800, but respect is as likely to confirm our target of 7400.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Small caps also weakened, with the Russell 2000 iShares ETF (IWM) breaching support at 215 to indicate another test of long-term support at 200. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of selling pressure.

Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM)

ISM Manufacturing

The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.2% in August. Although the cyclical sector is a relatively small percentage of the overall economy, it has a disproportionate impact during recessions as it sheds a large number of jobs. This is the sixth consecutive month of contraction (below 50), but the uptick indicates the contraction is slowing.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

New Orders are also contracting, indicating further headwinds ahead.

ISM Manufacturing New Orders

Also, the Prices sub-index continues to expand, warning of persistent inflationary pressure.

ISM Manufacturing Prices

However, the bearish outlook for manufacturing is offset by solid growth in other cyclical sectors, with combined employment in manufacturing, construction, and transport & warehousing reaching 27.85 million.

Manufacturing, Construction, and Transport & Warehousing

Non-residential construction spending continues to strengthen even when adjusted for inflation, benefiting from government programs to re-shore critical supply chains.

Non-Residential Construction Spending adjusted for inflation

China Manufacturing Activity

The official National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing PMI for China fell to 49.1 in August, indicating contraction. However, the downturn is contradicted by a rise in the private sector Caixin PMI to 50.4%:

Caixin China Manufacturing PMI & NBS China Manufacturing PMI

Financial Markets

Credit markets still reflect easy financial conditions, with Moody’s Baa corporate bond spread at a low 1.69%. Spreads above 2.5% indicate tight credit.

Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads

However, Bitcoin has respected resistance at $60K [red line], warning of shrinking liquidity.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

Ten-year Treasury yields are again testing support at 3.8%. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of long-term selling pressure. Breach of support would indicate another attempt at 3.7%.
10-Year Treasury Yield

Low LT yields are bearish for the Dollar and bullish for gold.

Dollar & Gold

The recent rally in the Dollar Index is losing steam. Tuesday’s weak close suggests another test of support between 100 and 101.

Dollar Index

Gold is retracing to test support at $2,475 per ounce. Trend Index troughs high above zero indicate long-term buying pressure. Respect would indicate another advance to test $2,600. Breach is less likely but would warn of a correction.

Spot Gold

Silver is more bearish, and a breach of support at $27.50 per ounce would test the August low at $26.50.

Spot Silver

Energy

Brent crude broke support at $76 per barrel and is headed for a test of long-term support at $73.

Brent Crude

Nymex WTI crude similarly broke support at $72 per barrel, offering a target of $68. We expect the DOE to increase purchases to re-stock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve below $70, providing support for shale drillers whose margins are squeezed at these levels.

Nymex WTI Crude

Uranium

Uranium continues its downtrend, with the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF) headed for another test of support at 17.

Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF)
However, we are bullish on the long-term prospects as resistance to the expansion of nuclear energy fades.

EU's New Pro-Nuclear Energy Chief

Base Metals

After its recent rally, copper is testing short-term support at $9,000 per tonne. Breach is likely and would warn of another decline as China’s economy slows.

Copper

Aluminum leads the way, breaking short-term support to warn of another test of the band of long-term support between $2,100 and $2,150 per tonne.

Aluminum

Iron & Steel

Iron ore recovered above $100 per tonne, but respect of the descending trend line would warn of another decline. Reversal below $100 would confirm our target of $80.

 

Iron Ore

Conclusion

Investors are jumpy as mega-cap stocks trade at inflated prices, boosted by passive investment inflows from index ETFs. We expect the S&P 500 to find support at 5400 and maintain our target of 6000 before the end of the year.

One factor that could upset the apple cart is tightening liquidity. However, the Fed and Treasury will likely support liquidity in financial markets, at least until after the November elections. If they withdraw support, then all bets are off.

Falling crude oil prices will likely ease inflationary pressure, while a slowing Chinese economy is expected to add deflationary pressure. Long-term interest rates are expected to remain low, weakening the Dollar. Gold will likely benefit, with another attempt at our target of $2,600 per ounce.

Acknowledgments

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