Canada’s TSX 60 is retracing to test its new support level at 780. Respect would confirm an advance to 820*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests nothing more than secondary (medium-term) weakness unless there is a crossover below zero. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would test primary support at 750.
* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 740 ) = 820
TSX 60 VIX is rising but remains bullish.
Declining CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) readings for the S&P 500 continue to indicate a bull market.
The S&P 500 itself is headed for another test of short-term resistance at 1850. Breakout would confirm the target of 1910*, while respect would warn of a correction, especially if followed by reversal below 1800. The recent decline in 13-week Twiggs Money Flow was secondary in nature and less severe than the corrections in June and August 2013; troughs high above the zero line are a long-term bull signal.
* Target calculation: 1810 + ( 1810 – 1710 ) = 1910
The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend, with Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line indicating long-term buying pressure. The last decent correction was in June 2013 and continuation of the advance much further without a correction would suggest the market is becoming over-extended.
Canada’s TSX 60 is in healthy shape, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicating strong buying pressure. Breakout above 780 would confirm an advance to 820*. Reversal below 740 is most unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 675/680.
* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 740 ) = 820
Short (3-day) retracement on the S&P 500 would indicate a strong trend. Follow-through above 1850 would confirm the target of 1910*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow highlights medium-term buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 1810 + ( 1810 – 1710 ) = 1910
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) readings below 20 continue to indicate a bull market.
The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend, with rising Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line indicating strong buying pressure. The last decent correction was in June 2013 and continuation of the advance much further without another correction of at least 2 to 3 weeks would suggest the market is becoming over-extended.
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 1810, signaling an advance to 1910*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 1810 + ( 1810 – 1710 ) = 1910
The FTSE 100 completed its correction with a break above the descending trendline. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Breakout above 6800 would offer a target of 7200*, but expect strong resistance at the 1999 high of 6950/7000.
* Target calculation: 6800 + ( 6800 – 6400 ) = 7200
The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 broke resistance at 3100, signaling an advance to 3350*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend. Retracement to test the new support level is likely; respect would strengthen the bull signal.
* Target calculation: 3100 + ( 3100 – 2850 ) = 3350
Germany’s DAX similarly broke resistance at 9400, offering a target of 10200*. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 9400 + ( 9400 – 8600 ) = 10200
India’s SENSEX is testing resistance at 21200 after a correction that respected support at 20200. Breakout would signal an advance to 22200*. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would indicate buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.
* Target calculation: 21200 + ( 21200 – 20200 ) = 22200
Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke resistance at 16000, supported by a strong rise in the Dollar/Yen exchange rate. Breakout signals a primary advance with a long-term target of 19000*. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests buying pressure and a healthy up-trend.
* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000- 13000 ) = 19000
A single cloud on the horizon, the Shanghai Composite Index is testing primary support at 2080. Failure of support would signal a primary down-trend with an immediate target of 1900*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest support.
* Target calculation: 2080 – ( 2260 – 2080 ) = 1900
The ASX 200 is lagging other markets because of negative influence from China. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 5450 would be cause for concern if followed by reversal below 5300. Breakout above 5450 and completion of a trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, would signal another primary advance, with a target of 5900*.
* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5000 ) = 5900
The S&P 500 followed through above 1810, signaling another primary advance. Troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong long-term buying pressure. Short corrections such as the recent retracement are normally followed by strong gains, but there is no reliable method calculating targets in an accelerating up-trend. The target of 1910* calculated by the conventional method may well underestimate the advance.
* Target calculation: 1810 + ( 1810 – 1710 ) = 1910
My favorite bellwether, transport stock Fedex, is surging ahead on the monthly chart, suggesting a strong recovery for the US economy in the year ahead.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) readings below 20 also suggest a bull market.
Cutting out benefits can reduce the jobless rate in two ways, says Mr. Feroli [Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan], pointing to past economic literature. Under the employment effect, people will take jobs even if the work pays less than the job seekers want. In the participation effect, people will drop out of the measured workforce since actively seeking a job (a criterion for being labeled officially unemployed) no longer carries an advantage of receiving jobless benefits.
Read more at What Happens When Unemployment Benefits Are Cut? North Carolina Offers a Clue – Real Time Economics – WSJ.
Canada’s TSX 60 found support at 750. Recovery above 780 would signal an advance to 810*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 remains unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 675/680.
* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 750 ) = 810
Low TSX 60 VIX readings suggest a bull market.
The S&P 500 found support at 1775, but declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns the correction is not yet over. Breach of 1775 would indicate a test of the ascending trendline and medium-term support at 1730. Recovery above 1810 is less likely, but would suggest an accelerating up-trend — with sharper gains and shorter retracements.
* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) readings below 20 are indicative of a bull market.
The S&P 500 is again testing support at 1780; breakout would warn of a correction. Initial support is at 1710, with primary support and the long-term trendline at 1630. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 1810 is now unlikely.
* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800
The ASX 200 is already undergoing a correction after breaking support at 5300. Failure of support between 4900 and 5000 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates far more severe selling pressure. A fall below zero would suggest reversal to a primary down-trend, but only breach of 4650 would confirm.
