Canada’s TSX 60 is testing its 2008 high at 900. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate strong buying pressure. Expect resistance at 900, but this is unlikely to hold. Reversal below the rising (secondary) trendline is not expected, but would warn of a correction to 800/820.
Dow Jones Industrial Average found support at 16950, with long tails indicating short-term buying pressure. Recovery above 17075 would indicate a fresh advance; above 17150 would confirm. A close below 16950 is less likely, but would warn of a correction to 16500. The decline of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates mild selling pressure typical of a consolidation.
* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 – 15500 ) = 17500
The S&P 500 also displays a long tail indicative of buying pressure. Recovery above 1985 would indicate another attempt at 2000. Further consolidation below the 2000 resistance level is likely. Reversal below 1950, however, would warn of a correction to 1900.
* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), trading at low levels last seen in 2005/2006, is typical of a bull market.
US unemployment has fallen close to the Fed’s “natural unemployment rate” of close to 5.5%. Does that mean that all is well?
Chart: The unemployment rate vs. Fed's measure of "natural" unemployment rate (NAIRU) over the past 20 years – pic.twitter.com/zq2fxtcHLt
— SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) July 28, 2014
Not if we consider the participation rate, plotted below as the ratio of non-farm employment to total population.
Participation peaked in 2000 at close to 0.47 (or 47%) after climbing for several decades with increased involvement of women in the workforce. But the ratio fell to 0.42 post-GFC and has only recovered to 0.435. We are still 3.5% below the high from 14 years ago.
When we focus on male employment, ages 25 to 54, we exclude several obscuring factors:
The chart still displays a dramatic long-term fall.
Bill Moyers interviews the American Enterprise Institute’s president Arthur C. Brooks on how to fight America’s widening inequality.
“The problem is we have a bit of a conspiracy between the right and left to have people now who are tending to be more part of the machine…We need a new kind of moral climate for our future leaders.”
Bill Moyers seems a bit light on the economics of the Walmart situation. Raising the minimum wage would reduce welfare payments to Walmart employees, but WMT is a rational entity with the primary goal of maximizing profits and shareholder value. An increase in the minimum wage would increase the appeal of automation and result in a reduction in staff numbers, causing an increase in unemployment, or alternatively WMT will pass on the additional cost in the form of increased prices to consumers, causing a rise in inflation. The only sustainable long-term solution is not an easy one: to increase economic growth and employment so that market-driven wage rates rise. Interference with the pricing mechanism in a market — whether through legislated minimum wages, price controls or Fed interest rates — is misguided and unsustainable. It may defer but also amplifies the original problem.
The S&P 500 retreated below its new support level at 1985, indicating a false break. Consolidation between 1950 and 1985 is likely — below the psychological barrier at 2000. Respect of support at 1950 would confirm. Declining 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal mild, medium-term selling pressure. Further resistance is likely at the 2000 level — and at 4000 on the Nasdaq 100. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 2250*.
* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recovered to above 12. Low levels continue to indicate a bull market.
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is consolidating above medium-term support at 3150. Breach would signal a test of the primary level at 3000. Descent of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of modest long-term selling pressure. Recovery above 3250 is less likely at present, but would suggest a target of 3450*.
* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3150 ) = 3450
China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at 2100 and is headed for a test of 2150. Breakout would suggest a primary up-trend, but I would wait for confirmation at 2250. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely at present but would warn of another test of primary support at 1990/2000.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
The ASX 200 broke clear of resistance at 5540/5560 on strong results from BHP. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but Friday’s long tail and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicate short-term buying pressure. Respect of support would indicate a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5540 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
A Harami candlestick formation on the S&P 500 suggests continuation of the up-trend. Harami means ‘pregnant’ in Japanese. Expect a test of the psychological barrier at 2000. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow recovery above the descending trendline would confirm that short-term selling pressure has ended. Further resistance is likely at the 2000 level — and at 4000 on the Nasdaq 100. Short retracement or narrow consolidation would suggest another advance. Reversal below 1950 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 1900 and the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 15 on news of the Israeli incursion into Gaza and the downing of Malaysian airlines flight MH17 over Eastern Ukraine, but soon retreated to 12 and remains indicative of a bull market.
The ASX 200 retreated below support at 5525/5530 on the hourly chart, but long tails at 5500 indicate buying pressure and another attempt at 5550 is likely. An open above 5530 would confirm. Breakout above 5550 would suggest a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5450 is unlikely, but would signal another test of 5350.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, released a 30 minute video in 2013, explaining his template of the economy and how central banks and government should manage a deleveraging like the Great Recession and its after-effects.
Ray proposes three simple rules to avoid future crises:
Productivity is the result of hard work and innovation, both of these factors will increase the level of output (GDP) per unit of input.
We measure productivity by comparing GDP to units of input, either:
Each will give a different perspective, but there are a few general rules:
Read more at Labor productivity can be misleading.
Canada’s TSX 60 continues to perform strongly, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicating strong buying pressure. Expect a test of the 2008 high at 900. Reversal below the rising (secondary) trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.
The Nasdaq 100 is headed for a test of the psychological level of 4000* at roughly the same time the S&P 500 is testing 2000. Expect resistance at these levels, but profit-taking is unlikely to be sufficient to halt the primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.
* Target calculation: 3700 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 4000
Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above 17000, indicating the recent retracement is over. Follow-through above 17100 would offer a target of 17500*. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline indicates selling pressure has ended. Reversal of the index below its (secondary) rising trendline at 16900 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.
* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 – 15500 ) = 17500
Russell 2000 small caps retreated from resistance at 12.0/12.1. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum shows the up-trend is slowing, while reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 10.8/11.0 would confirm. Recovery above 12.1, however, remains equally likely and would offer a target of 13.0.
* Target calculation: 12 + ( 12 – 11 ) = 13
Commentators have highlighted the fact that bank excess reserves held on deposit at the Fed — and on which banks are paid interest at 0.25% p.a. — are declining. This would suggest that bank lending is rising, increasing inflationary pressure.
The Fed is well aware of the situation
…and has responded to the recent slow-down by scaling back asset purchases (quantitative easing). They are likely to track the decline of excess reserves to ensure that the impact on the working monetary base (monetary base minus excess reserves) is contained — along with inflationary pressures.