The weekly TSX 60 chart respected resistance at 730 and is retreating to test support at 650/660. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of further selling pressure. Failure of support would offer a target of 590*.
* Target calculation: 660 – ( 730 – 660 ) = 590
A narrow range with large volume often acts like a compressed spring — absorbing buying pressure before launching a sharp move in the opposite direction. The spike in volume [W] on Dow Jones Industrial Average was due to triple-witching hour on Friday, but we should nevertheless be wary of a fall below 11400, which would indicate another test of 10600.
* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000
The weekly chart of S&P 500 shows a similar bear rally. Expect a test of 1250/1260. But 63-day Momentum below zero reminds that the index is in a primary down-trend; a peak below the zero line would warn of another down-swing.
* Target calculation: 1125 – ( 1250 – 1125 ) = 1000
NASDAQ 100 Index displays a particularly strong rally, but this remains a bear market. Expect strong resistance at 2400. Failure of support would offer a target of 1700*.
* Target calculation: 2050 – ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 1700
First, from long term successful commodity trader Peter Brandt:
It has come to be known as the “risk-on/risk-off” or “all-one-market” phenomena in global markets. It is a situation where seemingly unrelated markets have taken on an historically high correlation. Individual markets seem to be the proxy for all other markets.
I have witnessed periods in the past when unusually strong correlations existed for months and months. But, I have never experienced the level of correlation we have lived with as traders since 2008.
via Chart of the Day: Decoupled from reason – macrobusiness.com.au
Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied on unconfirmed news reports that China is set to buy sovereign debt from troubled Italy. Light volume indicates an absence of selling pressure. This is a bear market, however, and rallies are likely to be of short duration, while breach of support would lead to sharp falls.
* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000
The TSX 60 Index retreated to test its rising trendline at 705. Penetration would warn of a test of primary support at 665. And failure of support would signal another down-swing with a target of 600*.
* Target calculation: 665 – ( 735 – 665 ) = 595
10-Year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in more than 50 years on Friday, responding to heightened uncertainty in Europe. The flight to safety warns of further stock market weakness in the week ahead.
Obama: And everything in this bill will be paid for. Everything.
Mish: That is lie number 3……. Obama’s stimulus plan is nothing but another spend now, make cuts later “sleight-of-hand” proposal.
Obama: The purpose of the American Jobs Act is simple: to put more people back to work and more money in the pockets of those who are working…….
Mish: That is lie number 4. The primary purpose of the American Jobs Act is simple: To keep one person (namely President Obama), in his job.
The Dow is headed for the band of support between 10600 and 10800 — a real acid-test. Support is likely to fail unless we see a substantial increase in volume, indicating buying support. Breach of 10600 would confirm another down-swing with a target of 10000*.
* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000
Decades of experience, in nations across the globe, provide ample evidence that while the private sector plays an important role, it cannot by itself provide employment for all who want to work.
There is a way to do that: The government could serve as the “employer of last resort” under a job guarantee program modeled on the WPA (the Works Progress Administration, in existence from 1935 to 1943 after being renamed the Work Projects Administration in 1939) and the CCC (Civilian Conservation Corps, 1933-1942). The program would offer a job to any American who was ready and willing to work at the federal minimum wage, plus legislated benefits. No time limits. No means testing. No minimum education or skill requirements.
……To avoid simple “make-work” employment, project proposals could be evaluated on the following criteria: (a) value to the community; (b) value to the participants; (c) likelihood of successful implementation of project; (d) contribution to preparing workers for employment outside the program.
via What the Country Needs Is a New New Deal – Truthdig.
Comment:
Infrastructure projects are one way to get the unemployed back to work and are to some extent offset by savings in unemployment benefits. I would add one qualifier to the selection of infrastructure projects: they must be selected in terms of return on investment (ROI) and not on the number of jobs created. Projects that earn a market-related return on investment—whether toll roads, high-speed rail, new port facilities or national broadband networks—will generate revenues that can be used to repay the debt incurred. At the right time, they can also be sold off to private investors in order to generate funds for further projects. Money invested in schools, libraries, universities and research should be funded out of revenue, and not from increased government borrowing, simply because they do not generate new revenues. Instead they require ongoing expenditure to staff, operate and maintain the new facilities. Read more in my discussion of Austerity and Infrastructure Spending.
The problem is that the president believes we can cure our jobless problem by providing the proper incentives to the business community. And here he is committing one of the few big policy blunders from Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty. Like Johnson, who focused on retraining the unemployed for jobs that did not exist, Obama has focused on incentivizing the businesses community to hire workers to produce for customers that do not exist.
……The truth is simple and contrary to these views. Business will not hire more workers until it has more sales. Consumers will not spend more until they’ve got more jobs.
via What the Country Needs Is a New New Deal – Truthdig.
