US & Canada Archives - Page 163 of 179

November 11, 2011

EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Europe Begins Its Endgame. Watch and Learn, for Europe’s Problems Are the World’s.

The current structure of Europe cracks under the slowly rising stress of vendor financing: export-based prosperity for some, debt-financed consumption by others. Unless reformed, this can only end badly. The global economy has similar imbalances. In 2010 the trade surpluses of China, Russia, and East Asia (China being half the total) were almost equal to the US trade deficit of $560 billion. OPEC, Germany, and Japan accumulated another $518 billion surplus. These numbers continue year by year, accumulating stress that will eventually break the current global financial order.

We should watch and learn from Europe’s experience in the months to come. We, and the rest of the world, may follow them sooner than we expect.

via EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Europe Begins Its Endgame. Watch and Learn, for Europe’s Problems Are the World’s..

November 8, 2011

Global Liquidity ‘on the Cusp’ of Drying Up – WSJ.com

“Global liquidity has fluctuated wildly over the past five years and we are on the cusp of another retrenchment,” [Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney] said in the text of a speech, which was focused on global liquidity, to the Canada-U.K. Chamber of Commerce in London.

Mr. Carney, who was appointed chairman of the Financial Stability Board at last week’s G20 Summit, said market volatility is increasing and activity declining as global liquidity shrinks. “The effect on the real economy will soon be felt,” he said. The Bank of Canada expects the euro-area to experience a brief recession.

via Global Liquidity ‘on the Cusp’ of Drying Up – WSJ.com.

November 7, 2011

Canada TSX 60

The TSX 60 is testing the band of resistance from 720 to 730 and the descending trendline. Upward breakout would indicate that the primary down-trend is weakening, while respect would warn of another test of primary support. The sharp rise on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure, but there is no sign yet of a reversal.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580

November 6, 2011

Nasdaq threatens breakout

The Dow is testing medium-term support at 11600. Failure would mean another test of primary support at 10600, while respect of support (with breakout above 12300) would confirm the primary advance to 12800*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to indicate buying pressure, favoring an advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11600 + ( 11600 – 10400 ) = 12800

The S&P 500 is also testing medium-term support, this time at 1220. Respect would signal an advance to the 2011 high, while failure would re-test 1100. In the long-term, breach of 1100 would offer a target of 900* and breakout above 1350 would signal an advance to 1600.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900

Bullish divergence on the Nasdaq 100 indicates strong buying pressure and a likely reversal. Breakout above 2440 would signal an advance to 2800*. Reversal below 2300 is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 2000.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 2800

November 4, 2011

S&P 500 2008 weekly comparison

The similarity between the current weekly chart and 2008 continues.

S&P 500 Index Weekly 2008

The index is now retracing to test support at 1220, in a similar fashion to support at 1380 in 2008. Failure of support would be a strong bear signal, but confirmation would only come if primary support at 1100 is broken.

S&P 500 Index Weekly

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900

November 4, 2011

Market volatility easing

Market Volatility is easing, with the CBOE Volatility Index having broken 30. Follow-through below 24 would confirm the down-trend.

CBOE Volatility Index

November 4, 2011

Report Shows Gain in Jobs but Growth Still Sluggish – NYTimes.com

The United States economy created a modest number of jobs in October, the Labor Department reported Friday. Employers added 80,000 payroll positions on net, slightly less than what economists had expected. That compares to 158,000 jobs in September, a month when the figure was helped by the return of 45,000 Verizon workers who had been on strike………

The unemployment rate was 9 percent in October, slightly lower than September’s 9.1 percent but little changed from where it has been for the last seven months.

via Report Shows Gain in Jobs but Growth Still Sluggish – NYTimes.com.

November 3, 2011

Canadian Loonie

The Loonie pulled back to test support at $0.975 against the greenback. Failure would re-test the primary level at $0.94. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. Breakout above $1.01 is unlikely — unless we see a similar breakout on the CRB Commodities Index.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

November 3, 2011

Falling Treasury yields warn of money flowing out of stocks

10-Year Treasury Yields are testing medium-term support at 2.00 percent. Failure would indicate another primary decline — and bad news for stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yields

November 2, 2011

Creditors can huff but they need debtors – FT.com

China already runs its own risk of massive losses on the currency reserves – now worth $3,200bn – it has accumulated. That was a public capital outflow aimed at supporting its trade surpluses. But, in its attempts at managing the currency relationship with the US, it is the latter that controls the central bank. China can huff and puff. But it must either buy the money the US creates, to preserve competitiveness, or stop doing so. If it buys, it throws good money after bad. If it stops buying, it imposes a shock on itself.

via Creditors can huff but they need debtors – FT.com.