The TSX 60 broke through resistance at 720, signaling a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but target for the advance is 790*.
* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790
Nasdaq 100 index is approaching its target of 2650*. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 2400. Respect would confirm a strong up-trend despite the lower high (bearish divergence) on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow.
* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650
The S&P 500 encountered short-term resistance at 1370, indicated by declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, but the primary up-trend appears healthy. Retracement that respects support at 1300 would signal trend strength — even better if we have a narrow consolidation below the resistance level.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450
OTTAWA—Increased household debt in Canada, underpinned by rising house prices and low interest rates, poses a key domestic risk to financial stability, the Bank of Canada said on Thursday.
The finding, contained in the central bank’s quarterly economic review, was the latest in a series of warnings from economists and Canadian officials that high consumer borrowing has emerged as one of the economy’s biggest risks. Household debt stood at over 150% of personal disposable income as of the third quarter of last year, the report noted.
The Aussie Dollar is testing short-term support at $1.06, the lower peak at $1.08 warning of selling pressure. Breach of the secondary rising trendline (and support at $1.06) would warn of a correction to the long-term trendline around $1.02. Recovery above $1.08, however, would signal a fresh primary advance with a long-term target of $1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
Canada’s Loonie continues to consolidate below $1.01 on the weekly chart, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum crossed to above zero, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would confirm, offering an initial target of $1.06*.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
Both the Aussie and the Loonie are strongly influenced by commodity prices. If the CRB Commodities Index breaks resistance, expect both currencies to follow — though Canada will benefit more from higher oil prices.
A quick follow-up on the three stocks mentioned earlier in the week.
You can run the screen yourself on Incredible Charts:
Here is what to look for:
Husky Energy (HSE) broke through resistance at 26.00. 63-day Twiggs Momentum oscillator rises above zero, confirming a primary up-trend. 21-day Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero indicates buying pressure.
Crew Energy (CR) broke resistance a few weeks ago and is now retracing to test the new support level. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend.
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) is testing resistance at 55.00. Breakout would confirm the strong buying pressure and 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero.
The TSX 60 index is consolidating in a narrow band between 700 and 715. Upward breakout is likely and would signal a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal. Target for the initial advance is 790.
* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790
A screen of stocks with low Momentum but high buying pressure, as indicated by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, reveals a list of 93 potential breakouts (after filtering out stocks with daily Value/Turnover traded of less than $1 million). Husky Energy [HSE], Crew Energy [CR] and Bank of Nova Scotia [BNS] are three that look interesting.
WSJ.com – Mean Street
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Steven Russolillo discusses the prospects of another round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve based on recent comments by Dallas Fed Chief Richard Fisher.
Higher oil prices, the loss of some refining capacity and higher world demand have pushed up U.S. gasoline prices more than they usually track in the winter. So far in February, a gallon of gas nationwide costs $3.56, up from $3.44 in January.
Because they are shelling out more at the pump than usual this winter, consumers have less to spend elsewhere.
The strain is likely to get worse. That’s because gasoline prices typically rise in the first half running up to the summer driving season.
via Odd Retail Data Aren’t as Worrying as Rising Gas Prices – Real Time Economics – WSJ.
Many foreign-policy experts see the present international order as the inevitable result of human progress, a combination of advancing science and technology, an increasingly global economy, strengthening international institutions, evolving “norms” of international behavior and the gradual but inevitable triumph of liberal democracy over other forms of government—forces of change that transcend the actions of men and nations.
……But international order is not an evolution; it is an imposition. It is the domination of one vision over others—in America’s case, the domination of free-market and democratic principles, together with an international system that supports them. The present order will last only as long as those who favor it and benefit from it retain the will and capacity to defend it.
Canada’s TSX 60 index retreated to test support at 700. Failure would warn of trend weakness, while recovery above 715 would confirm the primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 715 + ( 715 – 645 ) = 785
