US & Canada Archives - Page 143 of 176

May 7, 2012

Canada TSX 60 breaks support

Canada’s TSX 60 index broke medium-term support at 675, signaling continuation of the secondary correction. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns that the primary down-trend will continue, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow holding above zero continues to indicate healthy buying pressure. Primary support at 650 is expected to hold and be followed by a rally to test resistance at 725.

TSX 60 Index
TSX 60 Index Twiggs Money Flow

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 3, 2012

Forex: Australia, Canada and South Africa

The Australian dollar has tracked the CRB Commodities Index fairly closely since 2009. Weakening commodity prices warn that the Aussie is likely to follow.

CRB Commodities Index and Australian Dollar

Against the US dollar, the Aussie is headed for another test of support at $1.02. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $1.02 would confirm this, offering an initial target of $0.99.

Australian Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.05 – 1.02 ) = 0.99

Canada’s Loonie is in a primary up-trend against the Aussie dollar — as signaled by the 63-day Twiggs Momentum cross to above zero. Breakout above $0.982 completes a bullish ascending triangle formation with a target of parity.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.98 + ( 0.98 – 0.96 ) = 1.00

The Aussie is also weakening against the South African Rand. Cross of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at R7.90 would confirm, offering an initial target of R7.50*.

South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 2, 2012

Paul L. Kasriel: Don’t End the Fed, Mend the Fed

Although the return to a gold standard for our monetary system has much appeal, it is unlikely to occur. So, let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Perhaps there is second-best monetary policy approach to the gold standard that might achieve most of the desirable outcomes of a gold standard but might have a greater probability of actually being adopted……. My suggested approach is very similar to one advocated by Milton Friedman at least 60 years ago. The more things change, the more they stay the same, I guess. I am proposing that the Federal Reserve target and control growth in the sum of credit created by private monetary financial institutions (commercial banks, S&Ls and credit unions) and the credit created by the Fed itself. I believe that this approach to monetary policy would reduce the amplitude of business cycles, would prevent sustained rapid increases in the prices of goods/services and would prevent asset-price bubbles of the magnitude of the recent NASDAQ and housing experiences.

econtrarian_043012.pdf (application/pdf Object).

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 2, 2012

FRB| Governor Tarullo: Regulatory Reform since the Financial Crisis

It is sobering to recognize that, more than four years after the failure of Bear Stearns began the acute phase of the financial crisis, so much remains to be done–in implementing reforms that have already been developed, in modifying or supplementing these reforms as needed, and in fashioning a reform program to address shadow banking concerns. For some time my concern has been that the momentum generated during the crisis will wane or be redirected to other issues before reforms have been completed. As you can tell from my remarks today, this remains a very real concern.

via FRB: Speech–Tarullo, Regulatory Reform since the Financial Crisis–May 2, 2012.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

Fedex

Bellwether transport stock Fedex continues to test support at $88, the neckline for a double top reversal. Long tails on the last two candles suggest short-term buying pressure, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. A close below $86.50 would confirm that economic activity is declining.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 96 – 88 ) = 80

long-term

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 continues to consolidate between 675 and 700. Upward breakout would suggest a primary advance to 775*, while failure of support would target the primary level at 650. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure, favoring resumption of the primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 675 ) = 775

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100

The S&P 500 respected support at 1350/1370, again confirming the primary up-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum in December 2011. Immediate target for the advance is 1450*. Reversal below 1350 is unlikely but would warn of a correction to 1300.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 gapped above 2700, on its way to a re-test of resistance at 2800. Completion of the flag formation indicates another primary advance. Reversal below 2650 is unlikely but would warn of a stronger correction. Retreat of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also give a bear warning, while respect of the zero line would indicate buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2650 ) = 2950

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 26, 2012

Forex: Canada's Loonie breaks out

The Loonie broke through resistance at $1.01 against the greenback, indicating an advance to the 2011 high of $1.06. This confirms the earlier signal when 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovered above zero.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 25, 2012

An earnings season only a pessimist could love – The Globe and Mail

With more than 25 per cent of S&P 500 companies having reported their first-quarter results, 80 per cent have exceeded analysts’ consensus profit estimates – a record pace, and well above the historical average of 62 per cent.

….The record “beat rate,” as earnings trackers call it, can’t gloss over the fact that earnings forecasts have been in decline for months – leaving expectations so low that topping them is a dubious achievement……..Major earnings-tracking services such as Factset, Thomson Reuters Research and S&P Capital IQ expect S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth of between 4 and 4.5 per cent for the quarter ended March 31. That would be the weakest profit growth in more than two years.

via An earnings season only a pessimist could love – The Globe and Mail.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 25, 2012

Durable-Goods Orders Fall – WSJ.com

March orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which economists consider a proxy for business investment, fell 0.8%. The weakness extended to a host of categories, including machinery, computers and primary metals. Economists cautioned that special factors likely made the report appear somewhat worse than the underlying trend. First, the December expiration of a government tax credit for business investment caused many companies to move ahead new orders, which translated into artificial weakness in the early-year figures.

via Durable-Goods Orders Fall – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.