Category: US & Canada

Posted on

The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines – Jim Bianco | The Big Picture

Last Thursday the Federal Reserve released its quarterly Flow of Funds data, current through December 2011. One of the more popular headlines from this data concerns the record amount of “cash on the sidelines.” Through Q4 2011, nonfarm nonfinancial corporate businesses held $2.23 trillion in liquid assets on their balance sheets. As the argument goes, this must be a sign of pent-up demand just waiting to be unleashed on the market.

The chart below shows liquid assets as a percentage of total nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business assets since 1952. By this measure, the “cash on the sidelines” argument is far less compelling.

Liquid Assets as a Percentage of Total Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Assets

via The Myth Of Cash On The Sidelines – An Update | The Big Picture.

Posted on

Forex: Australia, Canada and South Africa

A stronger greenback and weaker commodity prices are likely to depress resource-rich currencies. Canada’s Loonie stood up surprisingly well, mainly because of rising crude oil prices. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovered above zero, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would strengthen the signal, offering a target of the 2011 high at $1.06.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 1.07

The Aussie Dollar weakened along with commodity prices. Failure of support at $1.04 would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.96. Penetration of the rising trendline and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar found support at R8.00 South African Rand. Expect a rally to test the upper range border at R8.50, but failure of support would test the long-term trendline at R7.50*. Penetration of the trendline and/or reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Aussie Dollar/South African Rand

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Posted on

Treasury yields surge

The yield on 10-year US Treasury Notes has surged to test resistance at 2.40 percent. Breakout would indicate a rally to the long-term trendline at 3.00 percent on the Monthly chart. Rising treasury yields signal that investors are migrating out of bonds and into stocks, especially when the Fed is attempting to suppress long-term rates.

10-Year Treasury Yields

Posted on

S&P 500 and Nasdaq

An Hourly chart shows the S&P 500 Index consolidating below 1400. Breakout above the narrow flag would signal an advance to 1450*. Reversal below the trend channel is unlikely but would warn of retracement to 1340.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 exceeded its initial target of 2650, now revised to 2750, and is due for a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect a test of support at 2400.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 2750

Posted on

Canada TSX: Momentum trades

Bullish

  • New Zealand Energy [NZ] ~ respected support at $3.00; breakout above $3.80 would confirm another primary advance.
  • Rio Alto Mining [RIO] ~ narrow consolidation favors breakout above $4.70, signaling a new advance; support at $4.30.
  • Roxgold [ROG] ~ good support at $1.90, breakout above $2.15 would signal a new advance.

Watch for breakout

  • Tri-Oil Resources A [TOL] ~ narrow consolidation between $3.50 and $3.80 but strong bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow
  • Argonaut Gold [AR] ~ strong resistance at $10.00, support at $9.00
  • Atna Resources [ATN] ~ support at $1.25, resistance at $1.50.
  • Northern Graphite [NGC] ~ 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero is bearish but ascending triangle below $2.20, breakout would signal a fresh advance.
  • Pretium Resources [PVG] ~ breakout above $18.00 would signal continuation
  • TAG Oil [TAO] ~ testing resistance at $10.00
  • Americas Petrogas [BOE] ~ testing support at $4.00, respect would favor breakout above $4.50 and a fresh advance.

Americas Petrogas [BOE]

  • Coastal Energy [CEN] ~ recovered above $20.00, follow-through above $21.00 would confirm a fresh advance.

Americas Petrogas [BOE]

Negative Watch

  • Silvercrest Mines [SVL] ~ strong bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow followed by sharp drop to test support at $2.50.
  • Madalena Ventures [MVN] ~ long correction, headed for test of $1.00.
Posted on

Carmen Reinhart: Financial Repression – WSJ

Carmen Reinhart marks the rise of financial repression. “Faced with a private and public domestic debt overhang of historic proportions, policy makers will be preoccupied with debt reduction, debt management, and, in general, efforts to keep debt-servicing costs manageable. In this setting, financial repression in its many guises with its dual aims of keeping interest rates low and creating or maintaining captive domestic audiences will probably find renewed favor and will likely be with us for a long time.”

via Secondary Sources: Financial Repression, Jobs and Growth, Daylight Saving Scam – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

Posted on

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 index found support at 700. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow, holding above zero, continues to indicate buying pressure. Recovery above 720 would signal a primary advance to 790*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 650 ) = 790

Posted on

US markets pause in anticipation of March sell-off

US markets are anticipating a quarter-end sell-off in the second half of March, driven by the tax season and Spring-cleaning of fund balance sheets. The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1370. Breakout would signal the start of another primary advance, with a target of 1450*. Reversal below 1350, however, would warn of a correction, testing support at 1300 and possibly 1250.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 reached its initial target of 2650 and is due for a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 2400.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2150 ) = 2650

Dow Jones Transport Index has retraced over several weeks to test support at 5000. Respect would signal another attempt at 5600, while failure would indicate that momentum is slowing.

Dow Jones Transport Index

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 6000 – 4500 ) = 5500

Posted on

Aussie Dollar, Canadian Loonie and commodities

The CRB Commodities Index retreated from resistance at 325. Failure of medium-term support at 310 would signal a test of primary support at 295. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

Lower commodity prices weakened the Aussie Dollar, with a fall below $1.06 warning of a correction to the long-term (green) rising trendline. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains strong, however, and recovery above $1.08 would confirm a primary up-trend.

Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie was helped by rising crude prices and recovery above $1.01 would confirm the primary advance to $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Powered by WordPress / WordPress Maintenance Service By Website Helper