US & Canada Archives - Page 124 of 176

October 29, 2012

Washington Inc.

This extract is from a 2011 opinion I wrote titled Has democracy failed us or have we failed it?

Elections are an expensive business and no candidate is likely to achieve re-election without financial backers, making them especially vulnerable to outside influence. The finance industry alone made $63 million in campaign contributions to Federal Candidates during the 2010 electoral cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That will buy you a lot of influence on the Hill, but is merely the tip of the iceberg. Interest groups spent $3.5 billion in that year on lobbying Congress and federal agencies ($473 million from the finance sector). While that money does not flow directly to candidates it acts as an enticing career path/retirement plan for both Representatives and senior staffers.

The revolving door between Capitol Hill and the big lobbying firms parachutes former elected officials and staffers into jobs as lobbyists, consultants and strategists — while infiltrating their best and brightest into positions within government; a constant exchange of power, influence and money. More than 75 percent of the 363 former senators or representatives end up employed by lobbying firms, either as lobbyists or advisors.

Revolving doors continue to plague Washington and financial market regulators. Enforcing lengthy “restraint of trade” periods between the two roles would restrict this. Preventing politicians from joining lobbying firms for two to three years — and financial regulators from joining Wall Street for a similar period — would reduce the risk of “captive regulators”.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

October 29, 2012

Canada: TSX Composite

The TSX Composite Index is consolidating between 12100 and 12800. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above 12500 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through above 12800 would confirm.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12750 + ( 12750 – 11200 ) = 14300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

US: Signs a top is forming?

The S&P 500 continues to test support at 1400. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns that a top may be forming. Breach of support would strengthen the signal. The market is currently enjoying the “honeymoon” period in the lead up to the election. Reality is likely to bite after the results are in, as the government deals with some tough choices — like how to create jobs while reducing the budget deficit.

S&P 500 Index
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly testing support at 13000 on the weekly chart. Breach of support — and the primary trendline — would warn that a top is forming. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero would indicate rising selling pressure, while a trough above the line would suggest another primary advance. Recovery above 13650 is unlikely at present but would confirm an advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

The Keynesian Path to Fiscal Irresponsibility | Dwight R. Lee

With the ideological shift, supported by the intellectual acceptance of Keynes’s General Theory, politicians found themselves with an excuse to do what most had always wanted to do — take more money from the general public and transfer it to favored groups (or voting blocs). The benefits are invariably less than the costs, but they are visible, readily appreciated, and easily credited to politicians. Predictably, beginning in the 1930s federal spending began increasing as a share of GDP. It was about 4 percent of GDP in 1930, increased during the Great Depression and spiked to a historical high of about 47 percent during World War II. The federal government share of GDP then dropped to about 13 percent in 1948, reached a bumpy plateau in the early 1960s at slightly below to slightly above 20 percent that lasted for over 40 years, and then escalated rapidly in late 2008 to an estimated 25 percent in 2011……

The Keynesian Path to Fiscal Irresponsibility | Dwight R. Lee (pdf).

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 28, 2012

Joseph Stiglitz: "Government could have prevented much of what happened"

Nobel Prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz criticizes presidential policies on both sides. Of President Barack Obama’s financial-industry rescue plan, Stiglitz says that whomever designed it was “either in the pocket of the banks or …. incompetent.”

Here’s The Thing: Joseph Stiglitz (May 07, 2012)

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 26, 2012

A Closer Look GDP Data | The Big Picture

By Barry Ritholtz

The GDP data this morning was a deep sigh of relief for those people who fear a recession may be coming. I don’t have that sense of relief. Perhaps its my own bias, but the details of the GDP report reveal not an organic growth period in a healthy recovering economy, but rather a tepid post-credit crisis expansion highly dependent on government largesse and Federal Reserve accommodation…..

via A Closer Look GDP Data | The Big Picture.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 25, 2012

Forex: Aussie Dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling and Canada's Loonie

The Aussie Dollar (daily chart) is headed for another test of resistance at $1.04 against the greenback. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.04 would offer a target of $1.06*.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.04 + ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.06

The Euro (weekly chart) is testing resistance at $1.32. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.32 — and penetration of the descending trendline — would confirm, offering an immediate target of the 2012 high at $1.35.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.32 + ( 1.32 – 1.28 ) = 1.36

Pound Sterling (weekly) rallied off primary support at €1.225/€1.23 against the euro. Breach would complete a head and shoulders reversal with a target of $1.18*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests a primary down-trend. Expect a test of resistance at $1.26 followed by another attempt at primary support.

Pound Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.28 – 1.23 ) = 1.18

Canada’s Loonie (daily) is consolidating between $1.00 and $1.01 (USD). Downward breakout — and penetration of the rising trendline — would warn of another test of primary support at $0.96. But 63-day Twiggs Momentum is bullish and a trough above zero would suggest an advance to the 2011 highs at $1.06.

Canadian Loonie/Aussie Dollar

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 24, 2012

Philadelphia Fed: September up-turn in state coincident indicators

September readings for the Philadelphia Fed survey of state coincident indicators are now out. The 3-Month Index has turned to follow the Monthly Index upward. Reversal of the Monthly Index below 80, however, would be cause for concern.

Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indicators Diffusion Indexes

When we look at the index over the last 30 years, down-turns of the Diffusion Index below 50 normally precede a recession. The only false signal (so far) was the recent 2011 dip of the Monthly Index (DI1) to 20 and the 3-Month Index (DI3) to 46.

Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indicators Diffusion Indexes

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculates monthly coincident indexes for each of the 50 states. The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

For further details of Diffusion Index performance in predicting recessions, read Marking NBER Recessions with State Data by Jason Novak (2008).

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 23, 2012

Canada: TSX60 edging lower

The TSX 60 is edging lower and likely to test its medium-term trendline around 680. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above 725 would confirm.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 640 ) = 810

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 23, 2012

US: S&P 500 correction

The S&P 500 broke support at 1420, following a trend channel breakout, both signaling a correction. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of renewed (medium-term) selling pressure — a peak below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of 1400 would further strengthen the signal.

S&P 500 Index
The Dow Jones Industrial Average similarly broke support at 13300 on the weekly chart. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a weakening up-trend; reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at 13000 — and the primary trendline — would warn that a top is forming. Recovery above 13650 is unlikely at present but would indicate an advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.