Failing History – By Amy Zegart | Foreign Policy

By AMY ZEGART

The more important and overlooked lesson…. is that the structure of the U.S. intelligence system made a tough job nearly impossible. Although the CIA was created in 1947 to prevent another Pearl Harbor, the agency has never really been central. Intelligence agencies in the State, War, Navy, and Justice departments hobbled the CIA from its earliest days to protect their own turf. As a result, in 1962 intelligence reporting and analysis about Cuba was handled by half a dozen agencies with different missions, specialties, incentives, security clearance levels, access to information, and no common boss with the power to knock bureaucratic heads together short of the president. In this bureaucratic jungle, signals of Khrushchev’s true intentions — and there were several — got dispersed and isolated instead of consolidated and amplified to sound the alarm.

Sound familiar? Before 9/11, this same fragmentation kept U.S. intelligence agencies from seizing 23 different opportunities to disrupt the terrorist plot…….

via Failing History – By Amy Zegart | Foreign Policy.

The unemployment surprise

Headline unemployment may be falling but this extract from John Mauldin summarises the US predicament:

We are employing almost 5% fewer people as a percentage of our population than we were at the beginning of 2008. That means our real unemployment-to-population level is well over 12%. So we’re not even close to where we were in 1999, during the last year of the Clinton administration. And that doesn’t take into account the 50% of college graduates who are underemployed. A significant part of the problem is simply the fact that we are trying to recover from a deleveraging recession. The data suggests that such recoveries may take 10 years. For Japan it is more than 20 years, and counting.

The unemployment surprise (pdf).

Canada: TSX60 finds support

The TSX 60 found support at 700, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — oscillating above zero — reflecting continued long-term buying pressure. Expect a test of the 2012 high at 725; breakout would signal a primary up-trend. Reversal below 700 is unlikely but would warn of another test of primary support at 640.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 640 ) = 810

US: Continued selling pressure

Resistance on the S&P 500 has shifted from 1450 to 1475, Friday’s weak close and declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicate selling pressure. Breakout above 1475 would signal a primary advance, while reversal below 1430 would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560

The Nasdaq 100 (weekly chart) is similarly testing support at 2800/2750. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a weakening up-trend; reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Respect of support is would indicate another advance, while failure would strengthen the bear signal.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

Income inequality: Cause of our predicament or a convenient scapegoat?

A reader reminded me of this 2011 Vanity Fair article, where Joseph Stiglitz argues that growing income inequality will harm future US economic growth.

“What matters, [some people] argue, is not how the pie is divided but the size of the pie. That argument is fundamentally wrong……..

First, growing inequality is the flip side of something else: shrinking opportunity. Whenever we diminish equality of opportunity, it means that we are not using some of our most valuable assets — our people — in the most productive way possible.

Second, many of the distortions that lead to inequality — such as those associated with monopoly power and preferential tax treatment for special interests — undermine the efficiency of the economy. This new inequality goes on to create new distortions, undermining efficiency even further. To give just one example, far too many of our most talented young people, seeing the astronomical rewards, have gone into finance rather than into fields that would lead to a more productive and healthy economy.

Third, and perhaps most important, a modern economy requires ‘collective action’ — it needs government to invest in infrastructure, education, and technology……. America has long suffered from an under-investment in infrastructure (look at the condition of our highways and bridges, our railroads and airports), in basic research, and in education at all levels. Further cutbacks in these areas lie ahead. None of this should come as a surprise—it is simply what happens when a society’s wealth distribution becomes lopsided. The more divided a society becomes in terms of wealth, the more reluctant the wealthy become to spend money on common needs.”

There are obvious flaws in Stiglitz’ argument. First, he equates income inequality with unequal opportunity. These are two different concepts. Michael Jordan might earn more income than me, but this does not necessarily indicate unequal opportunity. Even with the same opportunity I am unlikely to ever succeed as a basketball player. Equal opportunity is important in maximizing economic growth but will not achieve equal outcomes.

Distortions associated with monopoly power and unequal treatment of taxpayers both promote inefficiency. But we must be careful not to “put the cart before the horse.” Increasing taxes on the rich will not eliminate these distortions. We need to eliminate monopoly power and unequal treatment of taxpayers to promote greater economic efficiency — not greater income equality.

I have no argument against increased investment in infrastructure, education, and technology, but it is a stretch to blame under-investment in this area on the wealthy. There are a multitude of other interests, including defense and welfare, that have diverted funds away from investment in these areas. Economic growth benefits us all — the interests of the wealthy are generally aligned with those of their fellow citizens. In fact, as a group, top income earners benefit more from economic growth than any other group and are unlikely to act against their own self-interest.

No doubt there are interest groups who argue for lower taxes or favorable treatment of specific industries, just as there are interest groups that argue for increased welfare payments to retirees. What needs to be addressed — in the interests of greater economic efficiency and equity — is the amount of influence these interest groups exert over political decisions.

Economists often confuse arguments for greater efficiency with arguments for greater equity. Stiglitz tries to draw a line from greater equity to greater efficiency. Unfortunately most of the evidence points to the opposite. Societies, like the UK in the 1960s and 1970s and Sweden in the 1970s and 1980s, who focused on greater equity, ended up damaging economic efficiency and growth — harming the very people their policies were intended to help.

As Ross Gittins argues, we need to achieve both efficiency and equity. My suggestion is twofold. Start by designing a tax system based on efficiency, where we maximize economic output while minimizing costs of tax collection. This requires greater simplicity, removal of progressive tax rates, and elimination of favorable treatment for specific industries and/or voting blocs. Complexity increases costs as well as creating opportunities for tax avoidance.

When we have maximized tax revenues through increased output and efficient collection, we can then focus on equity when deciding how tax revenues are spent. Redressing the imbalances of income inequality is unachievable. Instead concentrate on ensuring equal opportunity for all. Long-run investment in education, additional support for disadvantaged students, increased spending on infrastructure, and on research will have payoffs in terms of economic efficiency. And an efficient economy will benefit everyone.

The “size of the pie” really does matter but how it is shared will also make a difference to future growth.

Are Australian banks adequately capitalized?

Basel III Capital Adequacy Ratios (CAR) will require banks to hold a minimum Total Capital of 8% against risk-weighted assets (RWA), the same as under Basel II, but with additional capital buffers of between 2.5% and 5.0% depending on credit market conditions. With an average ratio of 11.5% (September 2011), Australian banks are short of the maximum Basel III requirement of 13.0% for markets in a credit bubble.

The problem, however, lies not only with CAR but with the definition of risk-weighted assets. Under RWA, loans and investments are not taken at face value but adjusted for perceived risk. These adjustments vary widely between banks in different countries. US banks still apply Basel I risk-weightings:

  • zero for cash and government debt (OECD Sovereigns);
  • 20 percent for (OECD) banks;
  • 50 percent for mortgages;
  • 100 percent for corporates.

Their counterparts in Asia and Europe apply Basel II risk-weightings, with more lenient mortgage risk weights, averaging 15 percent and 14 percent respectively.

Australia’s 4 major banks similarly apply risk-weightings (supervised by APRA) for residential mortgages as low as 15%, with an average of 17%. That means the big four hold less than 2% capital against residential mortgages. Even after mortgage insurance, Deep T pointed out earlier this year, leverage is close to 50 times capital.

Basel III introduces a minimum 3% leverage ratio which ignores risk-weighting and compares Tier 1 capital to total exposure — total assets plus derivative exposure and off-balance sheet assets. But this is a catch-all and allows banks with high quality assets to continue leveraging at 33 times capital. Fed guidelines are more conservative, requiring a minimum leverage ratio of 4% (“adequately capitalized“) with a recommended 5% minimum for well-capitalized banks. The ratio, however, excludes off-balance-sheet assets. None of Australia’s four majors appear to meet the Fed’s requirement at September 2011 — ranging between 3.9% and 4.8% of Tier 1 capital to tangible assets.

With household debt at a historic high of 150% of disposable income, 3 times higher than in the early 1990s, Australia shows classic symptoms of a credit bubble and cannot afford to be complacent. There are three areas of the banking system that require attention. Capital adequacy ratios need to be lifted as well as risk-weightings for residential mortgages. Improving these two measures should enable Australia’s four major banks to achieve a minimum (Basel III) leverage ratio of 5%.

Sources:

Click to access bcbs189.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_III
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_requirement

Click to access wp1290.pdf

Click to access wp1225.pdf

Casualties of the externality

Click to access EY%20Reg%20Alert%20Basel%20III%20June%202012.pdf

How Obama and Biden Buried the Middle Class

By EDWARD MORRISSEY

Is this a political inconvenient truth? Has the middle class been “buried” the last four years? By any measure, the middle class has certainly lost ground. Median household income has declined each of the last four years, a decline which has accelerated during the Obama “recovery” that started in June 2009. Median household income dropped 2.6 percent during the Great Recession, but has dropped 4.8 percent in the three years since.

via How Obama and Biden Buried the Middle Class.

WSJ big interview with Sheila Bair

Former FDIC chairman Sheila Bair favors breaking up the big banks. She also discusses her differences with Tim Geithner during the GFC and how the Treasury Secretary skewed the banking bailout to favor Citigroup.

Click image to play video

Click image to play video.

Hat tip to Barry Ritholz.

Canada: TSX60 tests 700

The TSX 60 is testing support at 700. Respect would indicate an advance to the 2012 high of 725, but failure would warn of another test of primary support at 640. I do not place much faith in the broadening wedge formation: narrow wedges tend to behave like trend channels. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend but we need a trough above zero to strengthen the signal. And only breakout above 725 would confirm.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 640 ) = 810

US: Buying pressure easing

The September Quarter has ended, bonuses have been determined, and buying pressure is now likely to ease. The S&P 500 is testing resistance after breaking support at 1450. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Respect of 1450 is likely and would indicate a test of 1400.

S&P 500 Index

The Nasdaq 100 weekly chart shows the index testing support at 2800/2750. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a weakening up-trend; reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Failure of support would strengthen the signal. Respect of support is unlikely but would indicate another advance.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing support at $84. Narrow range of last week’s candle indicates selling pressure  — as does reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero. Downward breakout would confirm the primary down-trend earlier signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero. A Fedex down-trend would warn of slowing activity in the broader economy.

Fedex