US & Canada Archives - Page 109 of 174

February 27, 2013

Forex: Euro and Sterling retreat while Aussie Dollar rebounds

The euro broke medium-term support at $1.32 and the rising trendline against the greenback. While this indicates trend weakness it does not necessarily mean reversal to a primary down-trend. Completion of a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would suggest that the trend is intact — and an advance to $1.42* is on the cards.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.36 + ( 1.36 – 1.30 ) = 1.42

Pound sterling broke long-term support at $1.53 against the greenback, offering a long-term target of $1.43*. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below -5% (its 2011 low) would strengthen the signal.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

Against the euro, the pound is testing support at €1.15. 63-day Twiggs Momentum well below zero suggests a strong down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of the 2011 low at €1.10.
Aussie Dollar/USD

The Aussie Dollar respected primary support at $1.015. Recovery above $1.03 and the declining trendline would suggest another rally to test $1.06. Reversal below $1.02 would warn that primary support is under threat.

Aussie Dollar/USD
Failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.96*. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum close to zero, however, suggests a ranging market.

* Target calculation: 1.01 – ( 1.06 – 1.01 ) = 0.96

The Canadian Loonie by contrast is in a strong primary down-trend against the greenback, headed for a test of $0.96. Falling 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests that medium-term support at $0.97/$0.98 is unlikely to hold.
Aussie Dollar/USD
The US dollar has broken its long-term declining trendline against the Japanese Yen, suggesting that the 30-year decline is over and the greenback likely to appreciate for the foreseeable future. Follow-through above ¥100 would confirm, offering a target of ¥120*.

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 80 ) = 120

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

February 25, 2013

S&P 500 breaks support at 1500

The S&P 500 broke support at 1500 and is headed for support at 1475.

S&P 500 Index

On the weekly chart we can see that a correction below 1475 would target support at 1425 (the secondary trendline). Only primary support at 1350, however, would signal a reversal. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate continuation of the up-trend, while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.

S&P 500 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 25, 2013

Canada: TSX edges lower

The TSX Composite found support at 12600/12650 on the daily chart. Breakout above 12800 would signal a fresh advance, while reversal below 12600 would warn of a correction. Expect support at 12500 and a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough at zero would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) suggest that a base is forming. The long-term target for a breakout above 13000 would be 15000*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 11000 ) = 15000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 24, 2013

S&P 500 finds support but Nasdaq warns caution

The S&P 500 found support at 1500 and is headed for a re-test of resistance at 1525/1530. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of mild selling pressure. Breakout above resistance would negate this, while reversal below 1500 and the rising trendline would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index

Breach of the secondary trendline (above) would indicate a correction to test primary support at 1350. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above 10% would increase likelihood of an upward breakout — with a target of 1750* — while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

The Nasdaq 100 is weaker, with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of a primary trend reversal. Breakout below primary support at 2500 would confirm, offering a target of 2100*.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 2100

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 24, 2013

Scott Minerd: The Keynesian Depression | John Mauldin

Scott Minerd, Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Funds, writes:

Though some may be cheered by the relative policy successes this time around, at the current trajectory it will still take almost as long for total employment to fully recover as it did in the 1930s. While job loss was not as severe this time, the recovery in job creation has been much slower. Although nominal and real gross domestic production have returned to new highs on a per capita basis, we are still below 2007 levels. In the same way the Great Depression and the depressions before it lasted eight to 10 years, we will likely continue to see constrained economic growth until 2015-2016 roughly nine years after U.S. home prices began to slide.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 21, 2013

Euro retraces

The Euro retraced to test support and the rising trendline at $1.32. Respect would indicate a primary advance with a target of $1.42*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum well above zero suggests continuation of the primary up-trend. Failure of support at $1.32, however, would indicate a bull trap — with a target of $1.26.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.32 ) = 1.42

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 20, 2013

S&P 500 caution

The S&P 500 retreated below 1525, heading for support at 1500. Failure of support would test the secondary trendline at 1475. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure, but may not be sufficient to start a full-blown correction.

S&P 500 Index

Breach of the secondary trendline at 1475 would indicate a test of primary support at 1350. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above 10% would increase likelihood of an upward breakout — with a target of 1750* — while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 17, 2013

Canada: TSX retreats

The TSX Composite retreated from resistance at 12800. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Breakout below 12650 would confirm a correction. Expect support at 12500.

TSX Composite Index
Rising troughs on long-term (13-week) Twiggs Money Flow, however, suggest that a base is forming. Breakout above 13000 would indicate a primary advance, offering a target of 15000*.

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 11000 ) = 15000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 17, 2013

S&P 500 still cautious

The S&P 500 is testing short-term resistance at 1525 on the daily chart. Breakout would signal an advance to 1550. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of retracement to the rising trendline.

S&P 500 Index

The quarterly chart warns us to expect strong resistance at the 2000/2007 highs of 1550/1575. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above 10% would increase likelihood of an upward breakout — with a target of 1750* — while retreat below zero would suggest a primary reversal.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

The Nasdaq 100 is testing resistance at 2800 on the monthly chart. Breakout would suggest a primary advance to 3200* but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Breach of the rising trendline would strengthen the signal.
S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2400 ) = 3200

I repeat my warning of the last few weeks:

These are times for cautious optimism. Central banks are flooding markets with freshly printed money, driving up stock prices, but this could create a bull trap if capital investment, employment and corporate earnings fail to respond.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

February 15, 2013

U.S.-EU Trade Deal: Obama Makes Risky Bet on Europe’s Future | Fiscal Times

David Francis writes:

The U.S. and European Union together already account for nearly half of global GDP and a third of global trade flows, with some $2.7 billion worth of goods and services exchanged daily. [A trade agreement] …..would increase trade between the partners by $120 billion within five years, according to a study by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. At the same time, it would add some $180 billion to U.S.-EU gross domestic product. Estimates put forth by the European Commission suggest a new trade pact could increase annual GDP by 0.5 percent in the EU and 0.4 percent in the U.S. by 2027.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.