Category: US & Canada

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Forex: Euro correction while Aussie retraces

The euro is headed for a test of primary support at $1.26 on the monthly chart. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would signal a down-swing to $1.20.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.20 ) = 1.50

Pound sterling is testing the new medium-term resistance level at $1.53 against the dollar. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, with a target of $1.43*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below its 2011 lows, strengthens the signal.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar retraced this week to test short-term support at $1.04, but the up-trend is intact and we should expect a test of resistance at $1.06. Failure of support at $1.03 is unlikely, but would warn that primary support at $1.015 is again under threat. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie rallied off medium-term support at $0.97 against the greenback. Expect some resistance at $0.99, but the CAD is just as likely to test the descending trendline at parity. The primary trend remains down and a test of primary support at $0.96 remains on the cards in the next quarter.
Aussie Dollar/USD

The US dollar is encountering increased resistance as it approaches ¥100 against the Japanese Yen. The 30-year down-trend is over. The advance is extended and a correction likely, but breakout above ¥100 would test the 2007 high above ¥120*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 80 ) = 120

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S&P 500: Any gas left in the tank?

The S&P 500 managed to close at a new high, with most fund managers reporting good results for the quarter, but does this signal a new bull market or a last-gasp effort to lock in performance bonuses before the market subsides into a correction?

While markets may be rising, there is strong risk aversion.

This is definitely not a classic bull market.

One also needs to be wary of September and March quarter-ends. They often represent significant turning points, with new highs (red arrows) and new lows (green arrows) frequently proving unsustainable.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1530 + ( 1530 – 1485 ) = 1575

While there is no sign of divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, which would indicate unusual selling pressure, it is important to remain vigilant over the next quarter rather than blindly follow the herd. Bearish (TMF) divergence or reversal of the S&P 500 below 1500 would warn of a correction.

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S&P 500 tests 2007 high

The S&P 500 continues to find support above 1540 on the daily chart. Breakout above 1565 would signal another advance. A higher trough on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely at present but would warn of a correction. Target for the current advance is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1530 + ( 1530 – 1485 ) = 1575

VIX Volatility Index remains near its 2005 lows at 0.10. This does not offer much reassurance as volatility can rapidly spike. Breakout above the quarterly high at 0.20 would be a warning sign.
VIX Index
Bellwether transport stock Fedex dipped below $100 after an earnings disappointment. Reversal below the rising trendline at $85 would warn that the broader economy is slowing.
Fedex
The Nasdaq 100 continues to struggle with resistance at 2800. Declining relative strength against the S&P 500 illustrates how blue chips are being favored over tech stocks. Bearish divergences on both 13-week Twiggs Momentum and 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warn of another correction. Reversal below the latest rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Follow-through above 2900 is unlikely at present, but would signal an advance to 3300*. Only breach of primary support at 2500 would signal a reversal.
Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

While there are structural flaws in the US economy, the market is gaining momentum and the current advance shows no signs of ending.

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For America, Decline is a Choice | The Diplomat

William C. Martel concludes his series, highlighting the lack of a cohesive US grand strategy, with this summary:

A strategic weakness with American foreign policy is the deep and enduring political polarization in Washington that complicates, and often paralyzes, U.S. policymaking. While the United States once conducted its foreign policy on a bipartisan basis, we now see divisions on virtually all issues. Washington’s failure to move beyond this polarized environment puts at risk its ability to act with one voice on foreign policy. Essentially, it puts at risk the entire enterprise of grand strategy because a deeply divided nation cannot implement its resources and interests effectively.

By definition, American grand strategy demands that policymakers and politicians take the long view. While it is an enduring challenge for policymakers in Washington to look beyond the next election, the nation has no choice. It must build a grand strategy that addresses how the United States deals with the future that extends beyond the coming months or years. Abroad, the nation must work with other states and institutions to shape the secure international order that all states desperately need. The alternative is a world marked by uncertainty, fear, and strife.

Read more at For America, Decline is a Choice | The Diplomat.

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March FOMC Meeting | Business Insider

The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

via March FOMC Meeting – Business Insider.

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Fed NGDP targeting would greatly increase global financial stability | Market Monetarist

Lars Christensen describes how NGDP targeting would help the global economy withstand shocks like another eurozone crisis:

Lets look at two different hypothetical US monetary policy settings. First what we could call an ‘adaptive’ monetary policy rule and second on a strict NGDP targeting rule.

‘Adaptive’ monetary policy – a recipe for disaster

By an adaptive monetary policy I mean a policy where the central bank will allow ‘outside’ factors to determine or at least greatly influence US monetary conditions and hence the Fed would not offset shocks to money velocity…..

In that sense under an ‘adaptive’ monetary policy the Fed is effective[ly] allowing external financial shocks to become a tightening of US monetary conditions. The consequence every time that this is happening is not only a negative shock to US economic activity, but also increased financial distress – as in 2008 and 2011.

NGDP targeting greatly increases global financial stability

If the Fed on the other hand pursues a strict NGDP level targeting regime the story is very different.

Lets again take the case of an European sovereign default. The shock again – initially – makes investors run for safe assets. That is causing the US dollar to strengthen, which is pushing down US money velocity (money demand is increasing relative to the money supply). However, as the Fed is operating a strict NGDP targeting regime it would ‘automatically’ offset the decrease in velocity by increasing the money base (and indirectly the money supply) to keep NGDP expectations ‘on track’. Under a futures based NGDP targeting regime this would be completely automatic and ‘market determined’.

Hence, a financial shock from an euro zone sovereign default would leave no major impact on US NGDP and therefore likely not on US prices and real economic activity…..

Read more at Fed NGDP targeting would greatly increase global financial stability | The Market Monetarist.

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S&P 500 and Europe: Likely to blow over

Question: Is the outcry in Europe going to tip the S&P 500 into a correction?

Answer: The outcome is uncertain. While there is a strong case for giving depositors and bondholders a haircut, the timing — so soon after an inconclusive Italian election — could not be worse. But let’s see what the market are saying….

Longish tail on the S&P 500 shows buying support at the close. Mild bearish divergence (mild because TMF has leveled out rather than falling sharply) on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. We are likely to see retracement to the first line of support — at the previous high of 1525/1530 — but only breach of this level and the rising trendline would warn of a correction. Target for the current advance is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1525 + ( 1525 – 1475 ) = 1575

VIX Volatility Index remains low — near its 2005 lows at 0.10. Breakout above 0.20 would be a warn of rising uncertainty.
VIX Index
The FTSE 100 exhibits an even longer tail, but bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below the latest rising trendline (6400) would warn of a correction, while breakout above 6550 would continue the advance to 6800*.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 6000 ) = 6800

The DAX showed even greater resilience, closing back above 8000. Follow-through above 8100 would signal a fresh primary advance. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.
DAX Index

Conclusion

There is bound to be some turbulence but markets are showing resilience and the storm is likely to blow over.

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ASIC: High-frequency trading taskforce—Key findings

Findings of the recent ASIC investigation into dark liquidity and high-frequency trading.

The high-frequency trading taskforce found that:

(a) some of the commonly held negative perceptions about high-frequency trading are not supported by our analysis of Australian markets—for example:

(i) that high-frequency traders exhibit unacceptably high order-to-trade ratios. Increases in order-to-trade ratios in Australia have been moderate compared with overseas markets, and other algorithmic traders operate at similar levels; and
(ii) that high-frequency traders’ holding times are often a matter of seconds and therefore that they make no contribution to deep, liquid markets. Our analysis shows that only 1.2% of high-frequency traders held positions for an average of two minutes or less, 18% for less than 10 minutes and 51% for less than 30 minutes; and

(b) there is some basis in fact for other perceptions (e.g. about high-frequency trading creating excessive noise and exhibiting predatory or ‘gaming’ behaviours), but other traders are also contributing to the problem.

Both [the HFT and Dark Pools] taskforces have found evidence of potential breaches of ASIC Market Integrity Rules and the Corporations Act 2001 (Corporations Act), and some matters have been referred to our Enforcement teams for investigation. We have also seen a change in behaviour as a result of our inquiries. For example:

(a) fundamental investors are asking more questions about where and how their orders are executed;
(b) there have been improvements to automated trading risk management controls; and
(c) at least one high-frequency trader has ceased trading in Australia.

The main problem with HFT is investor perceptions that they are paying more for stocks than they should be. HFT trading profits can only come out of investors pockets. While the ASX receives massive fees from HFT traders, the erosion of investor trust in fair pricing is too serious to ignore. Failure to address this could see investors migrate to other exchanges or platforms, especially if there is a transparent auction process where HFT traders are unable to intercede.

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Cyprus: Deposit insurance and moral hazard

The outcry over Cyprus levy on depositors in defaulting banks raises the question: Why were depositors not more wary of where they deposited their funds? Not all banks are created equal. The reason is deposit insurance for deposits under €100,000 implied that the government would stand behind its banks and rescue depositors should the banks ever default. The problem is that no one considered the possibility that all the banks would suffer losses sufficient that the government would be forced to default on both its explicit and implied obligations.

Some time ago I wrote about the moral hazard of deposit insurance:

Deposit Insurance: When too much of a good idea becomes a bad idea

Deposit insurance was introduced in the 1930s and saved the US banking system from extinction. Administered by the FDIC, and funded by a levy on all banking institutions, deposit insurance, however, encourages moral hazard. Depositors need not concern themselves with the solvency of the bank where they deposit their funds so long as deposits are FDIC insured. High-risk institutions are able to compete for deposits on an equal footing with well-run, low-risk competitors. This inevitably leads to higher failure rates, as in the Savings & Loan crisis of the 1980s.

The FDIC does a good job of policing deposit-takers, but no regulator can substitute for market forces. Deposit insurance is critical during times of crisis, but should be scaled back when the crisis has passed. Either limit insured deposits to say $20,000 or only insure deposits to say 90% of value, where the depositor takes the first loss of 10%. That should be sufficient to keep depositors mindful as to where they bank. And restore the competitive advantage to well-run institutions.

Requiring depositors to take the first loss of 10 percent should be standard practice for deposit insurance. The same should hold true for bank creditors. But we need to distinguish between insolvency — where liabilities exceed assets — and a liquidity event where the central bank is only called on to provide temporary respite. If the bank is rescued from insolvency by the regulator, bond holders should be required to take an equivalent haircut — painful yet not life-threatening. No one is entitled to a free ride. And bank shareholders, if a there is a bail-out, should lose everything — similar to the Swedish approach in the 1990s.

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Local government: the Lakewood model

In his report for the Urban Taskforce Australia, Professor Percy Allan recommends that local government adopt the Lakewood model of contracting in services. Lakewood was a sleepy California town threatened with being engulfed by urban sprawl — until they found a novel way of managing costs and improving services.

Lakewood of the early 1950s was David fighting the Goliath of Long Beach, a city intent on gobbling up its unincorporated neighbour parcel by parcel. The legal turf battles were exhausting Lakewood’s defenders, most of whom were transplants drawn to the promise of this sleepy village-turned-post-war boomtown. Then along came John Sanford Todd, a struggling attorney and proud Lakewood resident, who dreamed up a way to preserve his community’s independence without it going broke: It would become a new kind of city, one that contracted out for police protection, trash collection, fire fighting – just about every service a city provides.

That practice is commonplace in the USA today, but it was a revelation a half century ago. Todd’s vision, dubbed “the Lakewood Plan,” became a model of local government that informed incorporation drives throughout Southern California and beyond. Suburbia took shape in a rash of “contract cities,” including the neighbouring Dairy Valley (now Cerritos), La Puente, Bellflower, Duarte, Irwindale, Norwalk and Santa Fe Springs, which sprang up in such rapid succession that some observers began proclaiming the end of big cities.

There may even be opportunities to extend this model to metropolitan or state level, where states contract in and share the costs of centralized services provided by specialist corporations. This could apply to areas as diverse as road transport, police services and payroll functions.

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