Spain’s housing-price index in the July-to-September period fell 5.5% from a year earlier—the fastest pace of decline since 2009—and was down 1.3% from the second quarter, the public-works ministry said.
And Now The Bundestag Demands A Say | ZeroHedge
According to FAZ, the German parliament, which made it all too clear wants to be heard in all future European bailout instances courtesy of the constitutional court decision in early September, has just announced it wants to be heard, this time for real, and decide, on any EFSF expansion facility and specifically the usage of more leverage to fight already unbearable systemic leverage.
Sarkozy says euro zone talks stuck, flies to Germany | Top News | Reuters
France has argued the most effective way of leveraging the European Financial Stability Facility is to turn it into a bank which could then access funding from the ECB, but both the central bank and the German government have opposed this.
“In Germany, the coalition is divided on this issue. It is not just Angela Merkel who we need to convince,” [French President Nicolas Sarkozy] told the parliamentarians at a lunch meeting, according to Charles de Courson, one of the legislators present.
His comments fueled doubts about whether euro zone leaders will be able to agree a clear and convincing plan when they meet on Sunday.
via Sarkozy says euro zone talks stuck, flies to Germany | Top News | Reuters.
Jürgen Stark: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
“Given that one of the root causes of the current sovereign debt
crisis are unsustainable fiscal policies, I want to emphasise that this calls for a clear strengthening of incentives for prudent and sustainable fiscal policies. The introduction of common bonds in the euro area would, however, clearly weaken such incentives without
offering a long-term crisis resolution.”
via Jürgen Stark: Hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.
Forget Greece, EUROPE is Finished | ZeroHedge
Merkel and Sarkozy claim they’ve got everything under control. They’re lying. Anyone who uses common sense can tell this. The reason…
They’ve never considered the true price tag for the leveraged EFSF. I’m not talking about money, I’m talking about funding costs for France and Germany when they lose their AAA rated status as a result of backing up Greece. First off, while France and Germany are the most solvent members of the EU, they’re not exactly models of fiscal austerity. Consider that both countries officially have Debt to GDP ratios of roughly 80% (Germany’s is 78% and France’s is 84%).
Southern Europe Could Learn From Ireland – WSJ.com
Efforts to cut the deficits in these [EU Mediterranean] countries are not failing because of different reasons in each nation, although there are some such. They are failing because of misguided austerity plans.
Spending cuts and tax increases drive GDP down faster than the deficit, causing the deficit:GDP ratio to rise rather than fall. These measures are being imposed on economies with rigid labor markets, no history of entrepreneurial innovation, high taxes, and regulations that strangle their private sectors. That is not to say that the roles played by governments should not be reduced: They should. But without growth-inducing reforms, all the cutting will continue to be for naught.
Debt crisis: live – Telegraph
12.05 German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert is doing his best to sprinkle a bit of reality back on to the euro crisis. He said:
Dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won’t be able to be fulfilled.
A leveraged EFSF is pure poison – Telegraph Blogs
If Europe’s leaders do indeed leverage their €440bn bail-out fund (EFSF) to €2 trillion or €3 trillion through some form of “first loss” insurance on Club Med bonds – as markets now seem to assume – the consequences will be swift and brutal.
Professor Ansgar Belke, from Berlin’s DIW Institute, said any leveraging of the EFSF would be “poisonous” for France’s AAA rating and would set off an uncontrollable chain of events.
“It counteracts all efforts made so far to stabilize the eurozone debt crisis, which are premised on the AAA rating of a sufficiently large number of strong economies. In extremis, it would probably cause the break-up of the eurozone”, he told Handlesblatt.
…..Dr Belke said France is already under pressure. BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole may need €20bn in fresh capital, with knock-on risk for the French state. He warned that France’s public debt (Now 82pc of GDP) would shoot up to 90pc of GDP if the debt crisis rumbles on. Variants of this theme were picked up by other German economists in a Handelsblatt forum.
Rob Parenteau: Blinded by Faith – Sinking the Eurozone « naked capitalism
Policy makers in the [euro-zone] core believe in the sustainability of export led growth strategies. Keynes warned about this in the last piece he published before his death. If the reserves earned by current account surplus nations like Germany, Austria, etc. are not reinvested in productive capital equipment and structures in the current account deficit nations, then the deficit nations will not be able to earn the income required to service their external debt in the future. They will default. Or, as economist Jan Kregel put it in very clear terms, if Germany wishes to run a sustained current account surplus with the periphery, Germany can chose to accept either liabilities issued by the periphery, or tradeable goods provided by the periphery, but they do not have the option of choosing neither.
It is not in the best interest of the creditor/current account surplus nations to continually accumulate liabilities issued by debtor/current account deficit nations if this simply leads to eventual default on those obligations, but the economists and policy makers in the eurozone are too myopic and too blinded by faith to see this. The European Investment Bank could be used to recycle current account surpluses into productive capital investment in the periphery in a sustainable fashion, but instead, policy makers remain wedded to the faith based economic belief that export led growth strategies are both sustainable and optimal.
via Rob Parenteau: Blinded by Faith – Sinking the Eurozone « naked capitalism.
Chart of the day: Greatest Credit Deterioration Focus – Belgium, Spanish banking | Credit Writedowns
As I said in July, I expect contagion to be a real concern regarding the dithering policy approach. I believe the sovereign debt crisis will continue to deteriorate further for just this reason.
…..So, what happens is that the crisis rolls through. More and more countries in the euro zone get plucked off and put into the penalty box. First it was Greece. Then it was Ireland and Portugal. Later the crisis rolled into Italy and Spain.
There are ever fewer players left to skate. Now we see Belgium in big trouble. Austria and France cannot be far behind. Once France has difficulties, the core only has one country, Germany, which is a truly large economy, capable of shouldering any burdens. In my view, that is the end of the line.
via Chart of the day: Greatest Credit Deterioration Focus – Belgium, Spanish banking | Credit Writedowns.