Papandreou’s Hold on Power Weakens – WSJ.com

ATHENS—-Embattled Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has called an emergency cabinet meeting later Tuesday amid an open revolt in his Socialist party that could topple his government.

“Papandreou is trying to control a growing revolt in the party after the defections and calls for him to resign. The future of the government may be decided at the cabinet meeting,” a senior party official told Dow Jones Newswires…….

The referendum is seen as a high-stakes gamble aimed at quelling a public backlash against controversial austerity policies but at the risk of derailing plans aimed at solving the euro zone’s debt crisis.

via Papandreou’s Hold on Power Weakens – WSJ.com.

Europe falls on Greek referendum

Dow Jones Europe Index has fallen hard since Greece announced it will hold a referendum on the austerity measures it has to take in return for the EU/IMF bailout proposal. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of medium-term support at 230 would signal another test of primary support at 210. And failure of 210 would signal a decline to the 2009 low of 150*.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 270 – 210 ) = 150

Nothing’s changed – Steve Keen’s Debtwatch (2009)

In fact “normal” for the last half century has been an unsustainable growth in debt, which has finally reached an apogee from which it will fall. As it falls–by an unwillingness to lend by bankers and to borrow by businesses and households, by deliberate debt reductions, by default and bankruptcy–aggregate demand will be reduced well below aggregate supply. The economy will therefore falter–and only regular government stimuli will revive it.

This however will be a Zombie Capitalism: the private sector’s reductions in debt will counter the public sector’s attempts to stimulate the economy via debt-financed spending. Growth, if it occurs, will not be sufficiently high to prevent growing unemployment, and growth is likely to evaporate as soon as stimulus packages are removed.

The only sensible course is to reduce the debt levels. As Michael Hudson argues, a simple dynamic is now being played out: debts that cannot be repaid, won’t be repaid. The only thing we have to do is work out how that should occur.

via Debtwatch No 41, December 2009: 4 Years of Calling the GFC | Steve Keen’s Debtwatch.

Nothing seems to have changed since Steve Keen wrote this in December 2009. Almost two years later and any private sector deleveraging has been compensated by increases in public debt to finance stimulus spending. Greece’s “default” may be the first step in a long journey — and the jury is still out as to whether recapitalization of European banks (after their “haircut”) will be funded out of debt or new equity.

Euro Bailout Halflife: 48 Hours | ZeroHedge

….every asset class that was designed to benefit from the Euro Summit (rates, sovereign debt, & Italian banks for example) has given up its gains (France CDS widening significantly and EFSF deteriorating also) and the most shocked and still likely scarred (psychologically) equity and credit indices have room to drop here to catch up with that reality – whether the recession on/off switch is triggered or the ‘must-buy-to-avoid-career-risk’ trade is on.

via Euro Bailout Halflife: 48 Hours | ZeroHedge.

Europe’s Dying Bank Model – Gene Frieda – Project Syndicate

In general, the eurozone has outsized banks (assets equivalent to 325% of GDP) that are highly leveraged (the 15 largest banks’ leverage is 28.9 times their equity capital). They are also dependent on large quantities of wholesale debt – totaling €4.9 trillion (27% of total eurozone loans), with €660 billion maturing in the next two years – to fund low-yielding assets. According to Barclays Capital, the 15 largest banks increased their returns on equity by 58% between 1998 and 2007, with 90% of the gain coming from higher leverage. Returns have since collapsed.

This model’s viability depends on large amounts of cheap leverage, supported by implicit government backing.

via Europe’s Dying Bank Model – Gene Frieda – Project Syndicate.

Europe rebounds

The FTSE 100 index is headed for a test of its 2011 high at 6000/6100. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals strong buying pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 5400. Respect would confirm a primary up-trend; failure would re-test support at 4800.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4800 ) = 6000

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 6500. Retracement would test support at 5600. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak that respects the zero line would warn that the bear market will continue.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5000 ) = 6400

Italy is the latest canary in the coal mine. The FTSE MIB index rallied to test its secondary descending trendline at 17000. Respect would warn of another test of primary support at 13000, while breakout would offer a target of 19000*. The primary trend remains downward despite 13-week Twiggs Money Flow having crossed above zero.

FTSE Italian MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17 + ( 17 – 15 ) = 19

After China, Fund Chief Goes to Japan – WSJ.com

On Friday, Chinese and European officials sought to play down expectations about when and how China may deploy its vast financial resources to help bail out indebted countries in Europe.

A Chinese Vice Finance Minister said China must first see the details of a new European bailout fund before making any commitments. “We of course must wait until its structure is extremely clear,” Zhu Guangyao told a press briefing. “And moreover, this investment must be decided on after serious, technical discussions.”

Mr. Regling told reporters he doesn’t expect “any precise outcome” from his visit to China and said “it’s too early to say what kind of amounts might be envisioned.”

…..Mr. Regling dismissed suggestions that European leaders will be forced to offer concessions to China in return for investment. “I am not here to discuss concessions,” he said, noting that China already buys EFSF bonds and gets no special considerations.

via After China, Fund Chief Goes to Japan – WSJ.com.

SocGen: ECB will have to act – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Albert Edwards from Société Générale said the ECB will have to act, over a German veto if necessary. “The increasingly frenzied attempts of eurozone governments to persuade financial markets that they can draw a line under this crisis will ultimately fail.”

“The impending threat of a euro break-up will force the ECB to begin printing money, very reluctantly joining the global QE party. The question is whether Germany will leave the eurozone in the face of such monetary debauchery,” he said.

via Europe’s rescue euphoria threatened as Portugal enters ‘Grecian vortex’ – Telegraph.