IMF Survey: Iceland’s Unorthodox Policies Suggest Alternative Way Out of Crisis

As policymakers continue to grapple with the problems facing the crisis-hit countries in the euro area and the clouded outlook for the global economy, attention has turned to Iceland, which three years ago saw its entire banking system crumble in just a few days.

Private creditors ended up shouldering most of the losses relating to the failed banks, and today Iceland is experiencing a moderate recovery. Unemployment is declining, and the government was able to return to the capital markets earlier this year.

“What was seen as a disaster for Iceland three years ago is increasingly being seen as good fortune with the passing of time. Icelanders may have lost their financial system but instead they were spared the burden of nationalizing private debt,” said Árni Páll Árnason, Minister of the Economy.

via IMF Survey: Iceland’s Unorthodox Policies Suggest Alternative Way Out of Crisis.

The World from Berlin: ‘The Common Currency Endgame Has Begun’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International

Conservative daily Die Welt writes:

“At the end of the eventful day, the redemptive message came: Papandreou would withdraw his referendum because conservative Greek opposition leader Antonis Samaras declared he was ready to vote for the aid package with the government and take part in an interim national unity government……”

“But the reasons behind this welcome development did not lie in Athens, but in Cannes. There, Merkel and Sarkozy bet the house when they took the Greek prime minister to task. They didn’t just say that payments to Greece would stop until the Greeks made it clear they would hold up their end of the bargain. They also insisted that the Greek referendum would essentially be a vote on Greece’s membership in the euro zone — the really big question. The politicians in Athens decided they’d rather not take the risk.”

via The World from Berlin: ‘The Common Currency Endgame Has Begun’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

Papademos Favored to Lead Greek Transition – WSJ.com

A former vice president of the European Central Bank has emerged as an early favorite to lead what could become a new Greek caretaker government of technical experts that would finalize aid talks and stabilize the country’s fractured politics. The interim government would oversee the transition until possible new elections next year.

Officials from the country’s two leading political parties said Lucas Papademos keeps coming up as political insiders consider candidates for a prime minister of a transitional national unity government, if Prime Minister George Papandreou resigns, a possibility that is now widely expected.

via Papademos Favored to Lead Greek Transition – WSJ.com.

Worried Eyes on Greece Ahead of Confidence – NYTimes.com

[Greek Prime Minister] Mr. Papandreou was under intense pressure from his own Socialist party and the center-right opposition to step aside if his government survived the confidence vote [early Saturday], to pave the way for a unity government or early elections.

…….. New Democracy [the opposition] has refused to consider talks on a transitional government unless Mr. Papandreou resigns.

via Worried Eyes on Greece Ahead of Confidence – NYTimes.com.

European Central Bank makes surprise rate cut – World – CBC News

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point under new head Mario Draghi to boost weakening growth in a eurozone struggling with a crisis over too much government debt. The move, which comes earlier than expected by many economists, takes the bank’s benchmark rate to 1.25 per cent.

European growth is expected to slow to near or below zero in the last three months of the year.

via European Central Bank makes surprise rate cut – World – CBC News.

Greece’s Government Teeters – WSJ.com

Amid rising speculation he will have to resign his post, Mr. Papandreou’s overture to the center-right New Democracy party [to drop referendum plans if they can secure broad support for a new loan agreement and austerity measures] was a clear sign the prime minister and his Pasok socialist party no longer had the political clout to impose increasing financial hardships on its people to comply with aid conditions. Political insiders now predict a coalition as caretaker government to complete aid talks, followed by snap elections early next year.

via Greece’s Government Teeters – WSJ.com.

Euro falters upset sterling

The euro retreated below $1.40 and is now consolidating at $1.36. Failure of medium-term support would test the primary level at $1.32. In the long-term, breach of $1.32 (if the Greeks vote “No”) would offer a target of $1.22*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below the zero line suggests continuation of the primary down-trend.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – (1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

63-Day Twiggs Momentum similarly suggests continuation of the primary down-trend for the Pound. Breach of primary support at $1.53 would confirm, offering a target of $1.46*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

Revenge of the Sovereign Nation – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The spokesman of French president Nicolas Sarkozy…. said the [Greek] move was “irrational and dangerous”. Rainer Brüderle, Bundestag leader of the Free Democrats, said the Greeks appear to be “wriggling out” of a solemn commitment. They face outright bankruptcy, he blustered.

Well yes, but at least the Greeks are stripping away the self-serving claims of the creditor states that their “rescue” loan packages are to “save Greece”. They are nothing of the sort. Greece has been subjected to the greatest fiscal squeeze ever attempted in a modern industrial state, without any offsetting monetary stimulus or devaluation.

via Revenge of the Sovereign Nation – Telegraph Blogs.

Economist Editor: 2012 is going to be pretty sluggish

Economist Editor: 2012 is going to be pretty sluggish — with risk of “self-induced” stagnation

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