UK & Europe Archives - Page 7 of 88

June 10, 2017

Footsie stalls, Sterling weakens

Political uncertainty, with a hung parliament, increased downward pressure on Sterling which is testing primary support at 1.13/1.14 against the Euro. Breach would signal a test of the 2016 low at 1.10.

GBPEUR

The FTSE 100 stalled at 7600, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling pressure. Retracement that respects support at 7400 would re-affirm the target of 7700*. But breach of the rising trendline is as likely, which would warn of a test of primary support at 7100.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700

June 10, 2017

DAX renews advance

Germany’s DAX is advancing after retracement respected its new support level at 12400/12500. Rising Twiggs Money Flow signals long-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 13400*.

DAX

* Target calculation: 12400 + ( 12400 – 11400 ) = 13400

June 10, 2017

UK election throws up new uncertainties | Bond Vigilantes

From Jim Leaviss:

The UK has a hung parliament, with Theresa May’s Conservative Party losing seats and likely ending up 8 short of an overall majority. It looks as if young people voted in large numbers, mainly for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. The Conservatives remain the single largest party however, and together with the Conservative-leaning DUP on 10 seats, they will likely form the new government. The Prime Minister is holding a press conference at 10am – it is possible that she resigns at that time. This is an extremely poor result for her personally, having gambled that another General Election would significantly boost her majority. For an election designed to deliver a “Strong and Stable” government, we face the possibility of a new Conservative Party leadership battle (perhaps beginning later today) and even another General Election later this year.

This renewed uncertainty seems likely to be unhelpful to the UK’s Brexit negotiations, due to start on 19th June. The Conservatives did especially badly in “Remain” constituencies…… Finally, some good news for those fed up with election campaigns: the poor performance of the SNP in Scotland reduces the likelihood of a new Scottish independence referendum in the next few years.

Source: UK election throws up new uncertainties for markets – Bond Vigilantes

June 5, 2017

Upside Possibilities Look More Likely Than Downside Risks | Bob Doll

From Bob Doll’s latest weekly update:

Investors remain highly focused on global political issues. Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France has reduced some political risk in Europe, but investors are growing increasingly skeptical about President Trump’s ability to deliver on his pro-growth agenda. The growing scrutiny over White House ties to Russian operatives, escalating risks of global terrorism and rising uncertainty around North Korea are all negatives for investor confidence.

But these negatives have not offset positive global macroeconomic conditions. Global economic growth is hardly robust, but looks better than it has in several years, especially in Europe. Manufacturing activity is improving and global trade appears to be recovering. Corporate profits are also trending higher across most markets and industry sectors. Financials remain a weak spot in many areas of the world, but we expect global bond yields will rise as economic growth solidifies, which should help this sector. Finally, monetary policy remains growth- and equity-friendly. The Fed is in the midst of a rate-hiking campaign, but should continue raising rates slowly and predictably…..

Source: Weekly Investment Commentary from Bob Doll | Nuveen

June 2, 2017

Europe consolidates

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 appears unruffled by Donald Trump’s visit and withdrawal from the Paris Accord, consolidating above support at 3500. Respect is likely and would signal a further advance to the 2015 high at 3800*.

DJ Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3650 + ( 3650 – 3500 ) = 3800

An unintended consequence of Trump’s failure to re-affirm NATO’s Article V, may be that European states learn to rely less on an external party and draw closer together to support each other.

June 2, 2017

Footsie stalls as Pound weakens

Sterling continues to test primary support at 1.140 Euro. Breach would signal a decline to the 2016 low at 1.100.

GBPEUR

The FTSE 100 advance stalled, signaled by a doji on the weekly chart, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling pressure. Retracement that respects support at 7400 would re-affirm the target of 7700*.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700

May 30, 2017

Weekly Investment Commentary from Bob Doll | Nuveen

Key points from Bob Doll’s weekly investment summary:

We believe U.S. economic growth should rebound in the second quarter and corporate earnings will remain solid.
Investors remain uneasy about global macro conditions, but we believe the backdrop remains supportive for equities.
We may be seeing a transition in global equity leadership from the United States to Europe and select emerging markets.

Contrast this with Philip Parker’s outlook at Altair Investments.

May 26, 2017

Germany: DAX retraces

Germany’s DAX is retracing to test its new support level at 12400/12500. Rising Twiggs Money Flow signals long-term buying pressure. Respect of support is likely and would confirm a primary advance, with a target of 13400*.

DAX

* Target calculation: 12400 + ( 12400 – 11400 ) = 13400

May 26, 2017

Footsie powers on

Sterling weakened against the Euro, with GBPEUR headed for a test of primary support at 1.135/1.140. Breach would signal a fresh decline to test the 2016 low at 1.100.

GBPEUR

The FTSE 100 shrugged this off, advancing towards its medium-term target of 7700*. Rising Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700

May 21, 2017

Footsie retraces

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test the new support level at 7400. Respect is likely and would indicate an advance to 7700*. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure but the long-term signal remains bullish.

FTSE 100

* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700