UK & Europe Archives - Page 59 of 89

June 7, 2012

Forex: UK and Europe

The Euro retraced to test resistance at the former primary support level of $1.26. The peak that respected the zero line on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum warns of a strong primary down-trend. Respect of resistance would strengthen the signal, indicating a test of the 2010 low at $1.20.

Euro/USD

Pound Sterling is correcting after strong appreciation against the Euro. Expect a test of the rising trendline around €1.21/€1.22. Penetration would warn of weakness, but respect and/or a 63-Day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a healthy primary up-trend.

Pound Sterling/Euro

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

June 5, 2012

Richard Koo: Where do we go from here?

How austerity will prolong the recession.

Richard Koo, Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute at the Closing Panel entitled “Overhangs, Uncertainty and Political Order: Where Do We Go From Here?” at the Institute for New Economic Thinking’s (INET) Paradigm Lost Conference in Berlin. April 14, 2012.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 5, 2012

Paul Krugman on austerity

It is not often I agree with Paul Krugman. This is one of the few.

….not that I am in favor of big government.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 4, 2012

UK & Europe warn of primary down-trend

The FTSE 100 is testing medium-term support at 5250. Failure would mean another test of primary support at 5000/5050. Declining 63-Day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would confirm.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX broke medium-term support at 6200, penetration of the rising trendline warning that the up-trend is weakening. Expect a test of primary support at 5400. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would confirm.

DAX Index

The broader Dow Jones Europe Index is already testing primary support at 210. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (below zero) indicates strong selling pressure. Expect failure of support to signal a primary down-trend.

DAX Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

EconoMonitor » U.S.-China Trade War in the Offing?

China wants to develop what it sees as key industries by giving Chinese companies a leg up in both the Chinese and global market. Its trading partners don’t want to see their firms placed at a disadvantage, and in several cases have challenged Chinese policies. China is challenging them right back, arguing that those countries do the same thing, and that people who live in protectionist glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. If they do, China can match them “tit for tat.” (A similar battle involving cross-accusations and threats between the EU and China began unfolding this week — you can read about it here).

There’s a critical difference, though, between China and its trade partners. They all may both have policies that can be called protectionist, but they come from different starting points. In the U.S., trade restrictions and subsidies tend to be the exception to the rule, and when they do occur, are usually transparent. There’s a public approval process and an overt policy that can be challenged at WTO. In China, restrictions and subsidies are pervasive, due to the large state role in the economy, and often hard to pin down.

via EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » U.S.-China Trade War in the Offing?.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

Forex: UK and Europe

The Euro broke primary support at $1.26 against the greenback. A peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Expect a test of the 2010 low at $1.19/$1.20.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17

Pound Sterling is consolidating between €1.2350 and €1.2600 against the euro. Reversal below the lower trend channel would warn of a correction, while breakout above €1.2600 would signal continuation of the primary advance. Completion of a bearish divergence on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen a bear signal.

Pound sterling/Euro

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 30, 2012

How Europe Can Save the EU: Work Harder, Spend Less

Andy Xie, an independent economist in China, said European countries without a competitive advantage must simply work harder or spend less. Alternatively, if they want to keep living it up, they will have to accept wrenching labor reforms and deregulation.

Xie saw no popular consent for either course of action. Nor did he detect that Europe was tightening its belt as urgently as Asia did after its 1997/98 financial crisis. “While eurozone economies have contracted a bit, people seem to be bent on enjoying life as usual,” Xie wrote in New Century weekly, a Chinese publication. “China cannot save Europe. No one can. Only Europeans can, through increasing work relative to leisure.”

via How Europe Can Save the EU: Work Harder, Spend Less.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 29, 2012

Spain's Economy Shows Fresh Strain – WSJ.com

Spain’s economy showed fresh strain as retail sales fell at a record pace in April, showing the government’s austerity program is strangling consumption and suggesting deepening recession. Data Tuesday from the National Statistics Institute, or INE, showed seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 9.8% on the year in April, compared with a 3.8% drop in March. The decline was the sharpest since INE started collecting the data in January 2004. Household spending is dropping as unemployment approaches 25% of the work force.

via Spain’s Economy Shows Fresh Strain – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 28, 2012

UK & Europe

Dow Jones Europe Index found medium-term support at 220 but reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of primary support at 210 would signal a decline to 160*, close to the 2009 low. Respect of support is less likely but would indicate a rally to 260.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 260 – 210 ) = 160

The FTSE 100 is consolidating above 5250 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow remains above zero but 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 5000/5100 would confirm.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 27, 2012

Swiss Prepare Plans in Case of Euro's Demise – WSJ.com

Anita Greil: Switzerland is considering capital controls to fight a sharp rise in the Swiss franc in the event of a euro-zone collapse.

……In the 1970s, Switzerland used such extreme measures to curb excessive demand for its currency. The country prohibited foreign investments in Swiss securities and real estate, and introduced negative interest rates on foreign deposits. Both tools failed to stem the Swiss franc’s rise, which only halted after the central bank introduced a temporary peg to the deutsche mark, Germany’s currency at the time.

via Swiss Prepare Plans in Case of Euro’s Demise – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.